USA / Timeform / 16 April 2012 / 1

Timeform bring you their latest update on the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5......

BODEMEISTER Timeform Rating 125, Trainer B Baffert
Won maiden at Santa Anita in February by 9 lengths, then ran Creative Cause (who conceded 5 lbs) to ¾ length in G2 San Felipe there. Without headegear and much improved when most impressive 9½ lengths winner from Secret Circle of G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, drawn wide but making all and forging clear late. Son of Belmont winner Empire Maker and smart US 2-y-o Untouched Talent, and seems a likely stayer at beyond 9f. Now the top-rated 3-y-o male in North America.

DULLAHAN Timeform Rating 124, Trainer D Romans
Only win from 6 appearances at 2 yrs was in G1 Futurity at Keeneland (also hampered when fourth in Breeders' Cup Juvenile). Delivered the big effort he had promised when winning G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland by 1¼ lengths from Hansen, staying on strongly to lead late on. Half-brother to a Kentucky Derby winner in Mine That Bird and will be well suited by 10f, though could need run of things to come from behind in the big one.

UNION RAGS Timeform Rating 124, Trainer M Matz
Winner of 4 of 6 starts, beating News Pending by easy 4 lengths in G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream in February. Only third in Florida Derby last time, but found trouble in race in which leaders didn't come back (wide throughout and probably unlucky in only defeat last year, too, in Breeders' Cup Juvenile). Should not have a problem with the 10f distance of the Kentucky Derby, his next objective.

HANSEN Timeform Rating 123, Trainer M Maker
Won all 3 starts at 2 yrs, culminating in narrow defeat of Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and landed G3 Gotham at Aqueduct in March comfortably by 3 lengths from My Adonis, giving weight all round. Caught late on when 1¼ lengths second to Dullahan in G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland last time. Usually a front-runner, and is out of a sprinter, and by no means sure to stay beyond 9f given true test.

CREATIVE CAUSE Timeform Rating 121, Trainer M Harrington
Won G1 Norfolk at Santa Anita at 2 yrs, when also third to Hansen and Union Rags in Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Back to best when giving weight and beating to Bodemeister in G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita in March, but dipped bit below that when beaten nose by I'll Have Another in G1 Santa Anita Derby last time (no blinkers and looked less than keen). Son of Giant's Causeway and likely stayer over 1f further at Churchill Downs.

SECRET CIRCLE Timeform Rating 119, Trainer B Baffert
Won 5 of 7 starts and second in other two. Landed Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint at 2 yrs and G2 Rebel (by ¾ length from Optimizer) at Oaklawn this year. 9½ lengths behind Bodemeister in G1 Arkansas Derby last time, fading late. Has shown tendency to wander late in his races. Could well prove best at short of 10f Kentucky Derby trip.

GEMOLOGIST Timeform Rating 118p, Trainer T Pletcher
Unbeaten in 5 starts, especially impressive when slamming Currency Swap by 7 lengths in allowance at Gulfstream in March. Came again when accounting for Alpha by neck in G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time, seeming to idle and strongly driven. Son of Tiznow, and seems a highly likely stayer at 10f in same colours as 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver.

ALPHA Timeform Rating 117, Trainer K McLaughlin
Won 3 of 6 starts, notably G3 Withers at Aqueduct in February by 3¼ lengths from Speightscity. Better than ever when beaten neck by Gemologist in G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time, checked early and possibly ahead for a few strides 1f out. By Bernardini, out of 11.5f winner from the family of Swain, and seems near certain to stay the 10f Derby distance.

WENT THE DAY WELL Timeform Rating 117, Trainer G Motion
Beaten in maidens in UK at 2 yrs and at Gulfstream in February before winning one on latter course. Much improved when landing G3 Spiral at Turfway last time, by 3½ lengths from Holiday Promise, race won by same connections' Animal Kingdom by slightly less 12 months earlier before going on to success in Kentucky. Raced only at 8f/9f but should get a bit further. May next go for G3 Lexington at Keeneland on April 21.

TAKE CHARGE INDY Timeform Rating 117, Trainer P Byrne
Breeders' Cup Juvenile fifth who ran El Padrino to 2 lengths in an allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream in January. Took form to a new level when winning 9f G1 Florida Derby there in March from Union Rags and El Padrino but had a trouble-free and unpestered run out in front. Reportedly likely to head straight to the Kentucky Derby.

DADDY LONG LEGS Timeform Rating 117, Trainer A O'Brien, Ireland
Smart youngster last year when he won twice, including G2 Royal Lodge at Ascot, but didn't shine behind Hansen at Churchill Downs himself. Back to best when landing UAE Derby at Meydan on reappearance by 1¼ lengths from Yang Tse Kiang. Talk is that he'll head back to Churchill Downs next, and stamina for 10f seems virtually assured.

EL PADRINO Timeform Rating 116, Trainer T Pletcher
Won 1 from 3 as a juvenile and first two starts this year, beating Take Charge Indy 2 lengths in an allowance optional claimer on his reappearance before landing G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February by nose from Mark Valeski. Bit below form when fourth to Take Charge Indy in G1 Florida Derby, finding post coming too soon. Son of Kentucky Derby fourth Pulpit and shapes as if he wants the Derby trip already.

WROTE Timeform Rating 116, Trainer A O'Brien, Ireland
Did nothing but improve as a juvenile, following third to stable-companion Daddy Long Legs in the G2 Royal Lodge with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, beating Excaper by 2¼ lengths. Third to Daddy Long Legs in UAE Derby on reappearance on first run away from turf, and reportedly being targeted at the Kentucky Derby. By High Chaparral out a mare that stayed 12f, so won't fail for stamina.

I'LL HAVE ANOTHER Timeform Rating 115+, Trainer D O'Neill
Won 3 of 5 starts, notably G2 Robert B Lewis and G1 Santa Anita Derby (both at Santa Anita) this term. Showed good attitude to account for Creative Cause by a nose in latter, though with some unexceptional rivals not far behind. Sire Flower Alley won 10f Travers, and seems likely to get that distance himself.

DADDY NOSE BEST Timeform Rating 115, Trainer S Asmussen
Tough at 2 yrs, when sixth in Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Improved a bit this year, winning G3s at Golden Gate Fields and Sunland (Sunland Derby) in workmanlike style from Lucky Chappy and Isn't He Clever respectively. Stays 9f on a fast track, as did his sire, Florida Derby winner Scat Daddy (also the sire of Daddy Long Legs).

REVERON Timeform Rating 115, Trainer A Bezara
Won 3 of 7 starts, notably Gulfstream Park Derby in January. Third in G3 Sam F. Davies at Tampa and second in G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream since, better positioned than some when beaten length by Take Charge Indy in latter. Might not have finished improving and likely to stay the Derby distance.

Kentucky Derby Diary:
Saturday April 21: G3 Lexington Stakes, Keeneland 8.5f
Saturday May 5: G1 Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs 10f

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1. paul | 17 April 2012

   can anyone take this derby seriously --race day medication has just been given the green light again for 2012...the junkies derby!

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