Simon Rowlands: Sunland Park and Aqueduct Late Pick 4 preview

World Racing / Simon Rowlands / 17 February 2012 / 2

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

Why not play the Aqueduct Pick 4?

"Horse number 10 Rose's Desert stands head and shoulders above her fellow New Mexico-bred rivals, judged on her runaway win at Zia Park in October..."

Timeform's Head of Research and Product Development previews the weekend's racing in North America...

Racefans looking for some further early clues to the US Triple Crown may be inclined to sit this weekend's action out - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf fourth Lucky Chappy going in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate is just about the highlight in that respect - but there is, as ever, a huge amount of choice for the punter at a slightly lower level.

The fact that the Sydney Valentini Stakes at Sunland Park (due off at 16:05 local time, 23:05 GMT) is a handicap, in which they go 5/2 the field on the course Morning Line, might encourage you to think that it is an open contest. Timeform figures suggest otherwise.

Handicaps tend to be handicaps in name only in the US, often favouring one or a few horses to the exclusion of others, and State-bred handicaps - as this race is - are sometimes especially lop-sided for the money on offer (in this case $110,000).

Horse number 10 Rose's Desert stands head and shoulders above her fellow New Mexico-bred rivals, judged on her runaway win at Zia Park in October and authoritative success in a similar race here in December, and should really be much nearer [2.0] than the forecast [3.5].

Rose's Desert has twice earned Timeform ratings of 102, fully 19 lb in advance of the best her rivals here can boast. She is likely to slipstream front-running Elvira Who early, but by the end she could well be the only filly that counts.

A similar situation looks to exist over at Sam Houston Park, where the $100,000 Jim's Orbit Stakes (due off at 22:28 local time, 04:28 GMT) looks at the mercy of horse number 3 Sword Trick.

The three-year-old - rated 105 by Timeform - is a class apart from his six rivals on the evidence of four wins from six starts to date.

While the step up in distance to a mile is a slight concern, Sword Trick "rated" (that is, settled) well in second at a furlong shorter here last time before showing considerable resolve to put away the useful front-runner Canigotoo.

Nothing looks likely to put the same sort of early pressure on him here, and any odds against should be worth taking about a horse forecast at 2/1 on the course Morning Line.

Cowgirl N Up occupies the same position in the forecast market for the $100,000 Two Altozanos Stakes earlier on the Sam Houston card (due off at 22:02 local time, 04:02 GMT) but looks more vulnerable. She beat Nothinbettertodo and Color Code here last time, but there are reasons for thinking one or both of that pair may reverse the form.

Cowgirl N Up got a perfect stalking trip that day, while the other two took each other on, with Nothinbettertodo still coming back for more at the line. There is another furlong to travel for this one-mile contest and Nothinbettertodo could well be a better bet at the likely odds.

Punters looking for the chance to tackle something more challenging might well want to consider the Aqueduct card, where there is a $250,000 guaranteed Late Pick 4, a pool bet covering races 7 to 10.

Race 7, due off at 15:09 local time (20:09 GMT), looks to centre on #7 Jaded Lover and #8 Hook And Lateral, with the latter the stronger for those wishing to take just one selection.

Race 8 may revolve around #5 Metaurus, #6 Devilish Stunt and #10 Value Added Tax, the last-named with the potential to get a fairly easy time of things close up and at a biggish price.

Race 9 lacks front-runners and could throw up a surprise. #6 This Hard Land is likely to be favourite, and can be included, but #4 D'Sauvage and #7 Smooth Transition make even more appeal.

If you get as far as Race 10 then you have done well, and you should also feel more comfortable if you have included #5 Free Brave and #8 Keechi Bullet, the former especially.

Happy punting!

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(2)

steve | 25 March 2012

I am new to this...I played the mentioned $250K Race 7 Pick 4 at Aqueduct March 24 24/2012...but the payout was only about $147??

How come the payout was so low? And is there a way to know which payouts are expected to be higher for Pick plays?
Simon Rowlands | 27 March 2012

Hi Steve.

The payout is a function of the amount of the money in the pool (less the takeout by those who run the pool) divided by the number of winning tickets, neither of which can be predicted with any certainty before the case.

What a guaranteed pool ensures is that there will be a minimum of the specified amount in the pool at the outset. This can mean that there are value opportunities, and it can also mean that there is a lot of money - not all of it well-informed - chasing these opportunities.

There will have been a lot of winning tickets in the Aqueduct Pick 4 mentioned, with many of the winners at or near the front of the market. As a result, a sizeable pool ended up being shared between many punters, resulting in a none-too-sizeable dividend.

Bigger payouts are likely to accompany more unexpected winners. Judging the likelihood of these things is not easy, but it is one of the skills of placing a bet.

Hope it works out better - for both of us - in future!

Simon