Handicappers' Corner: Uncle Mo far-ah way the best

World Racing / Simon Rowlands / 03 October 2011 / 2 Comments

Uncle Mo in his slower paces.

"Timeform now rates Uncle Mo the best horse in North America on a figure of 129."

There were important races aplenty in North America at the weekend. Timeform's Head of Handicapping, Simon Rowlands, explains what Timeform made of the various performances.

"Super Saturday" in the USA promised much, with nine Grade 1s and a multitude of other valuable races, and it did not disappoint. Some reputations were enhanced, and some were set back.

With little more than a month until The Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs, events at Santa Anita and Belmont, in particular, are likely to have a big bearing on the self-styled end-of-season "World Thoroughbred Championships".

It has not been plain sailing for last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo in the 11 months since, but the signs at the weekend were that he is back to his brilliant best after his career had been threatened by a rare liver disorder.

Uncle Mo faced just three rivals in the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap at Belmont on Saturday, but they included a high-class one in Jackson Bend and a couple of smart ones in Jersey Town and Golddigger's Boy.

Uncle Mo beat them easily, responding immediately and impressively when the 122-rated four-year-old Jackson Bend briefly threw down a challenge, winning by three lengths and eight in a time much quicker than other dirt races on the card.

Timeform now rates Uncle Mo the best horse in North America on a figure of 129 (he had been rated quite conservatively at 127 as a two-year-old). His ability is in little or no doubt, though his stamina may be if he steps up another two furlongs for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Havre de Grace was another to win impressively, in her case in the nine-furlong Grade 1 Beldame Invitational at Belmont. She beat the 120-rated three-year-old filly Royal Delta by a wide margin, though the signs are that the latter was not at her very best.

Havre de Grace goes to the Breeders' Cup with a rating of 125 to her name, though whether she'll be asked to go two better than in last year's Ladies' Classic or be aimed at the Classic proper (in which she would get a sex allowance from the likes of Uncle Mo) is not clear.

Elsewhere, the Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty put up a startlingly good performance in the eight-and-a-half furlong Grade 2 Cotillion Stakes at Parx, slamming her old adversary It's Tricky (rated 121) by an easy seven and a half lengths.

Plum Pretty is now rated 125, meaning that Winter Memories' reign at the top of the sophomore fillies' tree, on a rating of 123, was short-lived.

Cape Blanco and Stacelita - the former a European, the latter an ex-European - gained Grade 1 successes earlier on the Belmont card without quite having to run to their respective bests of 124 and 121.

Flat Out, the form pick with a rating of 122, got the job done in workmanlike style in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup late on the card, coping well with the sloppy conditions to beat last year's Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer (rated 118) by two and a quarter lengths.

The only real turn-up at Belmont came in the Grade 1 Vosburgh, in which Trappe Shot (rated 125) and Euroears (rated 121) did their Breeders' Cup Sprint claims no good behind the unexpected Giant Ryan (now rated 121). Big Drama, the divisional leader on 127, was off colour and missed the race.

Havre de Grace's old sparring partner Blind Luck (rated 123) ran badly in the Grade 1 Lady's Secret at Santa Anita and is unlikely to be seen again this year. The race went to Zazu (rated 120), an admirable three-year-old filly, if slightly inferior to two or three of her age and sex.

A similar remark could be made about Game On Dude, who ran to 121 in winning the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita. Third-placed Coil (rated 123) did well enough at the weights to provide further encouragement that the classic generation is average rather than worse.

Ex-Brit Dubawi Heights (she was third in the 2009 Lowther Stakes) won the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon Stakes at Santa Anita for ex-Brit Simon Callaghan, though the principals finished quite well bunched and the form, worth a rating of 119 for the winner, is not out of the top drawer.

Acclamation (rated 125) seems set for a major role at Churchill Downs in a few weeks' time, be it in the Turf or the Classic, his win in the Grade 2 Clement L Hirsch Turf at Santa Anita on Sunday the fifth time in a row that he has run to higher than 122 on Timeform figures.

Comments (2)

1. Jonathan da Silva | 03 October 2011

   Simon

   Game on Dude appeared to go through pretty fast fractions early en route to a game win. Is this an illusion based on a faster track than others?

   Similar Q with Uncle Mo who seemed to explode through the 2nd quarter and last 6F.

   Very excited for the classic with lots of contenders (Tizway, Mo, Flat Out, AOB's choice, Havre (?) etc.) and the usual can the pacier ones last home or will the grinders like Flat Out get 'em.

2. Simon Rowlands | 03 October 2011

   Jon.

   That's very fair comment with Game On Dude, who possibly deserves to be marked up a bit as a result.

   His point-of-call finishing speeds as a % of his average race speed at the weekend are 98.26%/96.10%/93.36%/91.34%, which is some way below par for the track and distance.

   He should have been vulnerable to a closer, in other words, but he hung on well.

   Uncle Mo's fractionals are less extreme: 100.02%/98.16%/95.81% are not far from par for the track. But he did, as you say, show a change of gear (perhaps only briefly) when challenged, having done everything easily before that.

   Instinctively, I am wary of quick types in the BC Classic, as it always seems quite attritional. That includes Tizway in my book, as well as Uncle Mo. And I doubt Flat Out will be quite good enough.

   Whatever, it does indeed look like being a remarkably competitive affair, even by its usual standards.

   Roll on November 5th!

   Simon