World Racing / Timeform / 26 October 2010 /

The superlatives continue to be rolled out after the historic victory by So You Think in last Saturday's Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley. Timeform's Australian partner Gary Crispe gives his views.

So You Think became the youngest horse in the history to win back to back in Australia's premier weight for age classic and give legendary trainer Bart Cummings, now 82 his fifth win in the race.

So You Think joins an elite group of Australian equine stars to have won two Cox Plates and is Bart's first to achieve the feat. In fact he could stay in training to emulate the mighty Kingston Town's three consecutive Cox Plate victories (1980-1982) - the only horse to do so.

However as impressive as So You Think was, it is important to keep all the factors in perspective.

In Australia, we have very few horses that can reach a Timeform rating of 130 or above, and then reproduce it afterwards. In the past 25 years we have had many reach a 129 ceiling such as Makybe Diva, Northerly and Sunline to name a few but just the very best performers will produce performances above that level.

Weekend Hussler was the most recent case in point when as a three-year-old he demolished a good field in the 2008 Group 1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill. Unfortunately injury and other factors intervened and he did not reproduce the merit of that effort again. Other recent past greats such as Better Loosen Up and Might And Power could perform at 130 and above multiple times during their respective careers.

And that is just what So You Think is doing that captures the imagination of the racing fraternity - a good horse backing up, winning at each start with each performance better than the last. Of course horses are not machines and this trend cannot be continued, you can only go to the well so many times.

Even the great Sea The Stars' Timeform rating bounced around during his illustrious, but short career, clearly showing just how hard it is to perform every time at the elite level.

Clearly the other factor that comes into play is the dynamics of each race. Not all races are the same contest. Varying metrics such as opposition, distance, pace, course, race tactics, state of track are just a few variables that influence the performance of racehorses.

Australia's latest track sensation So You Think has a few of these variables covered off before he steps out in any race because of his adaptability in the way he races - a trait not uncommon to champion racehorses.The very best can and do overcome adversities in races that prove giant obstacles for lesser performed animals.

Being trackside on Saturday to watch So You Think was a wonderful experience. Anyone who says good horses don't make racing obviously have not been to such an event. As soon as So You Think came onto the track, the public of 31,000 plus applauded and of course the cheering started as soon as he kicked away in the home straight and grew even louder when he returned to scale.

So You Think was again dominant last Saturday. All fears about how the race would play against him were out the door after 100m when Nash Rawiller took More Joyous straight to the lead in what was clearly a well thought out pre-race plan, with So You Think settling just behind her.

The early pace was leisurely, but as is often the case with this horse, he started to apply the pressure at the 800m. More Joyous was immediately struggling to keep up and at the same point the entire field came off the bit chasing.

Rounding the home turn, So You Think was off and gone by three lengths and although runner-up Zipping and third placed Whobegotyou took ground off him in the closing stages, the race was well and truly in his keeping, eased down to win by over a length.

Like so many victories by class horses, the winning margin is not always the measure of a dominant performance. It is more the way these horses execute the victory by applying pressure and simply grinding their opponents into submission.

In that regard So You Think reminds me a lot of Might And Power and to a lesser extent Sunline. Their opponents were always under enormous pressure to pull ground off them once in the straight because a lot of the damage had been done before that point.

Saturday's Cox Plate field comprised eight individual Group 1 winners who collectively had nineteen wins at the elite level between them.

The analysis of the Cox Plate has revealed a Timeform rating of 132 for So You Think, a figure backed up primarily by the merit of the contributing horses plus historical race standardisation techniques.

The only horse in that block to race above merit was Zipping who increased his rating from 126 to 129?

Occasionally horses put in a "one off" extraordinary performance at all levels of racing eg from maidens to Group 1, that rates above their normal level and while this certainly appears the case with Zipping, the run rating will be questioned until the horse races again. A study of Zipping's last twelve months racing and in particular his ratings profile at 2000m and beyond reveals a steady rise in his ratings profile. This is most unusual for a nine-year-old but at the same time something that cannot be ignored.

The overall race time of 2.07:45 was not fast, in fact it is at the higher end of the slowest Cox Plate race times, however So You Think's closing sectionals were outstanding.

So You Think has covered the last 600m in an amazing 34.92 seconds compared to the last 600m by crack sprinting mare Black Caviar of 35.26 seconds in winning the 1200m Group 2 Schweppes Stakes by a comfortable 5.5 lengths earlier in the afternoon.

It was interesting to hear trainer Bart Cummings' comment he felt So You Think did not like the whip, that probably explained why he tended to come back to the field in the closing stages.

Comparisons still abound as to where So You Think ranks in Bart's long line of many champions he has prepared in a training career spanning close to sixty years.

As we pointed out in an article last week, our calculations reveal his great stayer Gailiee with a Timeform rating of 134 as the best horse Bart has prepared - a fact Bart himself recognised with the quote; "They (So You Think and Galilee) are getting closer, maybe they will dead heat shortly."

At this stage, So You Think will race next Saturday in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) at Flemington then step out in the 150th Melbourne Cup next Tuesday over 3200m.

Those two assignments, if completed in the affirmative, may well result in the dead heat Bart suggested!

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