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US Racing: Betting against tired Breeders Cup horses can pay

US Racing RSS / / 30 November 2007 /

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After a hectic Thanksgiving Nick Shiambouros looks forward to a quieter weekend of racing stateside...

Sometimes you have to recognise when enough is enough and that certainly was a valid point after some major shocks this past Thanksgiving weekend.

Breeders Cup Sprint champion Midnight Lute was sensationally turned over at odds-on in The Cigar Mile by Daaher who made all the running to capture this valuable prize. As for Midnight Lute he tried in vain to mount a challenge but was well held inside the last furlong. Trainer Bob Baffert was not totally downbeat about his colt's exertions as he said he will be back next year. One thing is for sure a lot of horses that have run in The Breeders Cup are finding the long hard season has taken its toll and many are running sub-par races.The winner is clearly progressive and will be seen out next in The Donn Handicap at Gulstream Park next year where he must have a leading chance based on this effort.

Earlier in The Remsen on the same card our selection Court Vision got the better of Attoned in a cracking finish to get up right on the line. The winner was very heavily backed and was available at [2.2] for the win which was much shorter that I thought he would be. This was a decent effort but I would not be rushing out looking to back him in next year's Kentucky Derby based on this effort.

The same comment however does not apply to the impressive Mushka who was really impressive when thrashing our choice Elusive Lady in The Demoiselle. Trainer Bill Mott is continuing his great season and she will be put away until next year when she could be an Oaks contender.

Over at Hollywood Park, The Hollywood Derby really lived up to top billing with a quality field and a thrilling race as well. Daytona, ridden by Mike Smith, made all the running to withhold Medici Code who went off at a ridiculous [18] but could not get to the game winner. This was truly one of the rides of the season by Smith who has made the transition from the east coast to the west very well and is riding as well as I have seen him for a number of years.

As for the runner-up he was freely available to back in the win at around [23] and plenty was also on offer at a huge [4.3] for the place. I did advise him for the win at around [4.0] but at [4.3] for the place that represented super value and I hope some of you got on. As for the favourite Nobiz Like Showbiz he has simply had enough for the year and this run is best forgotten.

Another great ride by young Rafael Bejarano was enough to carry Precious Kitten home in The Matriarch Sakes. This jockey really gave this horse a super ride after she was taken on for the lead early on but he did not panic and settled her nicely before sprinting clear inside the final furlong. One thing is clear - America is really blessed with a lot of talented young riders at present.

The line-up this weekend is not as hectic as last week's holiday action but there is still some solid racing around. On Friday's Aqueduct card, Marine's victory looks to have a winning opportunity for trainer Richard Dutrow in the feature race which is a good allowance race. I don't think he will be a huge price but I will be backing him at around [3.5] for the win (give or take). Dutrow is one trainer to keep an eye on this Winter and his strike rate over the years reflects that.

Over on the west coast at Hollywood Park the Bayakoa Handicap Grade 2 looks a competitive affair. The likely favourite is going to be Tough Tiz's Sis but I am going to oppose her as I think she might be feeling the effects of a long season. I will be backing Sugar Shake at around [5.0] for the win and I will lay the favourite at under [3.0] if I can get matched.

Well that is it for another week except to say that be careful backing any horse that has run in The Breeders Cup as a lot of them are over the top now and desperately need a break. Horses need a holiday too you know!

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