US Racing / Graham Cunningham / 24 October 2007 /

Racing broadcaster Graham Cunningham is trackside at Monmouth with all the Breeders' Cup whispers - and you can listen to his latest Stateside report...

Sweet smell of success for "the Armpit"

The local signs describe it as the Garden State, but some cynics have a different name for New Jersey.

"We call it the Armpit of America," said my driver Bryan (who lives in leafy Connecticut) as we rolled into Monmouth Park racecourse.

"Some people here are kinda rough," he added. "Expect to see a lot of Italian guys with slicked back hair and gold bracelets."

Perhaps Bryan has been watching too many episodes of the Sopranos. Or maybe the local wiseguys are keeping a low profile until Saturday.

Either way, the early impressions of Jersey suggest that the locals are bending over backwards to ensure that the biggest show in American racing comes up smelling of roses for its first visit to Monmouth.

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This is one battle George can't win

Jersey natives also tend to tell you exactly what is on their mind quickly. Such bluntness is to be admired and, with that in mind, it's time to come straight off the picket fence as regards George Washington and Saturday's Classic.

He's one of the most naturally gifted racehorses of the last 10 years. He travelled like a dream for eighty per cent of last year's Classic. And the romantic script is just waiting to be written given that the man he is named after emerged triumphant against the British in the Battle of Monmouth back in 1778.

All these factors suggest there will be plenty of money for George Washington again on Saturday. And if there is, I'll be laying him again. Why so? In short, because I don't think he's good enough to give weight to a clutch of American three-year-olds who look set to serve up a Classic worthy of the name.

In short, "Gorgeous George" has had three chances to shine in 2007. Yes, he has recorded consistent 120 figures, but that trademark brilliance has ebbed away since his abortive trip to stud. Once the market matures he seems set to settle at around 10.0 in the win market and 3.75 in the place market. In short, that looks a trade with precious little downside.

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Boffins agree that Dylan can be poetry in motion

Not everyone at Monmouth is obsessed with the equine stars thronging the barns. Take the security guard who was asked by an American media member as to whether Dylan Thomas had arrived.

"I don't think I've seen that guy" came the response, but the King George and Arc de Triomphe hero is a good thing to end his glittering career with a win in the Turf according to some of the most experienced form assessors in the game.

Timeform rate the muscular Danehill colt fully 5lb ahead of last year's winner Red Rocks and a further 3lb ahead of English Channel, while British Horseracing Authority head of handicapping Phil Smith feels Dylan Thomas could have as much as 8lb in hand if he can reproduce his very best.

Are they right to make things so clear cut? In short, they probably are. Having backed Dylan Thomas at 6.0 for the King George and 13.0 for the Arc it goes slightly against the grain to steam in at around even money. But look at the facts. This is a hugely gifted horse with pace, stamina and a tremendous will to win.

The fact that he has had a long season is a slight concern - as is his tendency to drift right in front - but the bottom line is that Dylan Thomas could be on a different plane to his Turf rivals come 21:50 on Saturday night.

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Rocks gives cause for concern ahead of date with Dylan

Slowly yet surely, the European raiders are leaving their quarantine barns and making their way onto the track. Jeremy Noseda's Juvenile Dirt contender Strike The Deal had a light workout as storm clouds gathered this morning, while his stablemate Simply Perfect and Henry Cecil's Passage of Time also limbered up for their date in the Filly & Mare Turf.

All three seem to have taken their journey well, but the reports have not been so positive for Red Rocks. Brian Meehan's colt won the Turf last year under an inspired ride from Frankie Dettori but has been well behind Dylan Thomas twice in 2007.

More importantly, signs of temperament seem to be emerging. The Galileo colt, currently trading at 6.6 for the Turf, has seemed worryingly edgy while being led to the track and was described as "wired to the moon with his eyes out on stalks" by one photographer as he returned from his Wednesday workout.

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