US Racing / Jack Houghton / 25 October 2008 / Leave a comment

Our man comes out of tipster retirement to test his universal betting truths across the pond.

I know I said I wouldn't venture this way again, but it's Breeders' Cup night for cripes sake. And after my last drive into Tipsterville - when Marchand D'Or was selected at [4.5] to win the July Cup - it seemed only fair to help out the analystas who write for betting.betfair with some Houghton-style punting good sense.

Only Answer will win the Turf Sprint. I know this because I was once given a book - which I've subsequently lost - which included the all-time trainer records at the meeting. I forget the exact numbers, but remember Andre Fabre seemed to do quite well. So there we go: at around [20.0] in the win market and [5.0] in the place market, the second race of the night will prove profitable for us. You could say that Only Answer is the only answer. Great stuff.

Tonight's opener - the Marathon - will be disappointing to some. The yanks use the term "marathon" in the same way my primary school did; which slightly exaggerated the stamina requirements of a sports day perimeter run of the school grounds. So those expecting to see a two-hour affair - interspersed with Paula Radcliffe stopping for a poo before courageously giving up - will be disappointed. Alas, the race is only 12 furlongs, and whilst Sixties Icon - opposed here by a motley looking bunch of no-hopers - should win; he probably won't.

I haven't heard of any of the horses in the Dirt Mile. And whilst that doesn't usually stop me betting on American racing, I'm usually drunk when I do. Writing this at 7am, I'm not currently drunk, and so recommend no bet. That's not to say I won't be drunk by 8.15pm. At which point I will probably have developed a very strong opinion about Turf Cat. Surf Cat you say? Point taken.

A universal punting truth - and I don't care what Simon Rowlands says - is that you must continue to back a horse you've previously backed until it wins for you: no matter what conditions it is faced with. Admittedly, the strategy proved a little costly when latching on to Quixall Crossett at an early stage of its career; but nonetheless, universal punting truths must be obeyed. So I'll be backing US Ranger in the Mile. My staking strategy on the horse is complex, so ears back and I'll try to explain it in simple terms. I'm going to add up all the money lost on the animal to date and stake the requisite amount to restore parity; whilst simultaneously paying for tonight's takeaway. It's a staking strategy I call the Reverse Lamb Bhuna.

In the Juvenile I'll be having a small place back on West Side Bernie at around [6.0]. As a teenager growing up in a seaside Norfolk town I used to drink in the same pub as a guy called West Side Bernie. As he lived on the East-side of town, I always found his chosen nom de guerre a little perplexing. But then poor compass awareness wasn't Bernie's most noteworthy crime. After an unfortunate incident outside the local junior school, Bernie is now staying in the west-wing of Broadmoor. So West Side Bernie in the Juvenile? Too good to be true.

Westphalia should win the Juvenile Turf. O'Brien is exuding a sense of history-maker this year - whatever that means - and so will add to his Grade One tally in this race. And Fatal Bullet should be supported in the Sprint. I have no idea why, but a US racing pro-punting friend has been banging on about his "sectionals" (which I think is an anatomical term) for months now, and won't hear of defeat. Still, I'll probably back it win and place - just to be safe.

Winchester is a big price in the Turf and, assuming too much liquid hasn't rendered my betting bank illiquid by 11pm, I'll be backing it win and place. I hope it can give both barrels to Soldier Of Fortune. By god - I should be a headline writer with puns like that. Just brilliant.

That leaves the Classic. Having written a well researched, data-heavy and learned article earlier in the year, concluding that horses running in the Dubai World Cup were all but finished for the season; I feel I have to oppose Curlin. Admittedly, he's done okay since returning from the Middle-East and my theory is looking a little ropey. But never one to let evidence get in the way of a dogma, I'll be laying Curlin for all I am worth in the Breeders' Cup finale and hoping Our 'Enry can deliver a knockout punch.