Timeform Select: The Handicapper's Corner

Timeform / Timeform / 13 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Timeform cast a discerning eye of the horses to watch as well as the ones to oppose.

Bold Punt (Timeform Rating 117p) has still had only three races over hurdles since winning a maiden Irish point early in the year and, judging by the progress he's made so far, it's unlikely a rise in the weights will prevent him going one better than on his handicap debut at Sandown, where he found only a rejuvenated Aux Le Bahnn too good for him in a fifteen-runner conditional jockeys event. Backed into favouritism despite not having run for seven months since landing a novice at Newcastle, he beat the third decisively, who in turn finished a long way clear of the rest, and is likely to be suited by a step up to three miles, as well as a switch to fences later on given his background and pedigree (dam out of half-sister to dam of Jodami). T. R. George

Bally Conn (Timeform Rating 107, c?) hasn't looked back since leaving Henrietta Knight's stable in the spring and joining that of Martin Hill. Indeed, he's the only horse to beat the much-improved Charles Street in that one's last four races, since when he's followed up under a penalty at Exeter, where he had more in hand than his narrow margin over Paddy's Tern might suggest. He faces a hike in the weights now but, even so, should continue to take plenty of beating when stamina is at a premium, and even when the handicapper does make life too difficult for him over hurdles connections have the option of switching him back to fences, in which sphere he can be expected to make a much better fist of things second time round. Martin Hill

Medicinal (Timeform Rating h119+, c134) is definitely one to be with next time, be it over hurdles or fences, judging by his promising debut for Paul Nicholls in a handicap chase at Aintree last month. Medicinal was starting to look exposed as a novice for Edward O'Grady after winning his first two outings, but it seemed significant his new connections went to £65,000 to secure him at Doncaster May Sales and he immediately looked much improved for the change of stable, given plenty of time to recover from a bad mistake at halfway and looking to have running left in him as he closed without being given a hard time in the straight. He's likely to prove best around two miles, and he's versatile as regards ground (acts on heavy and good to firm). P F Nicholls

Elsie's Pride (Timeform Rating 107) has presumably had his share of training problems, which isn't all that surprising given how big he is, but if staying sound there's little doubt he can take advantage of a favourable mark sooner rather than later, particularly with his stable giving the impression of late they're set to hit form. Elsie's Pride wasted no time showing himself a better chaser than hurdler when switched to fences last season, winning at Folkestone and Towcester and clear of two subsequent winners when second to Lazy But Lively at Uttoxeter in between, and there was more than enough in his second to the well-treated Randolph O'Brien at the former course on his return to suggest he's back at the top of his game, travelling as well as the winner for a long way and closed down by the remainder only as lack of fitness seemed to tell. Effective around two and a half miles to three, he's raced exclusively on good going or softer. Miss Venetia Williams

Horses to Oppose

There are plenty of reasons to believe Bowleaze won't be following up last weekend's win at Sandown when his new mark kicks in. That race looked weak as it was, but it took very little winning in event with favourite Seymar Lad let down by his jumping and he's anything but reliable nowadays to boot. The win by Scalini's at Hereford on Sunday will forever be remembered by trainer Chris Nenadich as it provided him with his first success, but the eight-year-old will struggle to add to the permit holder's collection near to hand. Scalini's benefited from the underperformance of several on the day and could go up more than he deserves to with the first two pulling clear, while his profile hardly suggest he'll be in the same form next time.