Weekend Preview: Will it be a Super Saturday? I don't know

Timeform Debate / Jamie Lynch / 09 February 2012 / 1 Comments

Long Run will win the Betfair Denman Chase says Jamie

"Because of Kauto Star's headline-grabbing regeneration, it's been easy to overlook just how good Long Run is himself..."

Will Newbury go ahead? Nobody knows yet, but if you don't know don't fake it says Timeform's Jamie Lynch, who is hoping it gets the green light so he can put his plays and lays into action.

Elton John (and Blue) got it wrong, because it's 'I don't know' and not 'sorry' that seem to be the hardest words. There was a time when 'I don't know' was a perfectly acceptable thing to say.

What's the meaning of life? I don't know.
What's love got to do, got to do with it? I don't know.
What does Simon Mapletoft offer? I don't know.
Nowadays, not knowing is no longer good enough.

Several of us here at Timeform who do the odd broadcast every now and then were asked by the management if we'd like to participate in some media training last month, in the same way that Poland was asked if they wouldn't mind moving over a bit in 1939. A lot of it was constructive and sensible, up until the part when Mrs Media said: And what do you do when somebody asks you something you know nothing about? Apparently, replying with 'I don't know' is not the right answer.

In fact, we were told, the correct course of action is to say anything but say 'I don't know'. Skirting around is option 1, and then there are the 3 D's to call on - divert, deflect and distract - but under no circumstances should you expose yourself to be fallible and human.

This 'faking it' approach seems especially prevalent in the racing business, where everybody pretends they know the answer to any question and no one will ever admit they don't know the answer, meaning nothing ever gets discussed properly whereby we could actually learn or sort something.

Needless to say, two-bit pundits/commentators like me are the worst culprits, albeit often with the right intention of trying to work out a race, but the thing that triggered this specific sermon was the ongoing cold snap and related abandonments. This is Britain, this is winter, therefore bad weather is inevitable at some point, and, at the mercy of the elements, all we can reasonably do is sit on our hands until such time the frost and/or snow clears and racing resumes. Most people accept this is the way it works, but what has thrown a spanner into those works is the new breed of media-friendly, media-trained clerks of the course, who can make an avalanche out of a snowball by creating confusion where there needn't be any.

It admittedly doesn't help that these quasi-celebrity course clerks are pressured to say so much so often, and providing accurate on-the-spot information is a good thing, a really good thing, but having a guess up isn't. Sometimes waiting and seeing is all that can be done. Sometimes 'I don't know' will do just fine.

There are times, however, when 'I don't know' won't do at all, such as the challenge I've set myself for this weekend of determining whether the high-profile favourites in three of the main events on Betfair Super Saturday will definitely win.

Case Study 1: Zarkandar. He's Timeform top-rated because of the strength of his form, advertised by several of his generation who've improved this season, principally Unaccompanied and Grandouet, the pair Zarkandar overpowered in the Triumph. So what's the problem with a horse who's ahead of his handicap mark and on course for the Champion Hurdle? The only problem I have with him is the very fact he's on course for the Champion Hurdle, that this is his rehearsal rather the main ceremony, that Ruby won't put him through the mill with Cheltenham only four weeks away, and the Betfair Hurdle is such a competitive race that Zarkandar is unlikely to get away with winning it at 85% or 90%. That's why, for me, Zarkandar is a lay.

Case Study 2: Long Run. Definitely wins the Betfair Denman Chase. Because of Kauto Star's headline-grabbing regeneration, it's been easy to overlook just how good Long Run is himself: much too good for this lot. Enough said.

Case Study 3: Sprinter Sacre. This one isn't quite so cut and dried, more trimmed and towelled, but the percentage call is to be with him. Even if his Kempton romp wasn't quite all it was cracked up to be, with Peddlers Cross clearly not 100% that day, Sprinter Sacre has the makings of a future champion, and you can't help but feel that while he's soaring over the thirteen fences, his main rival Cue Card will hit at least one of them.

So that's how I'm going to play the three races: lay Zarkandar in the Betfair Hurdle, and double up Long Run and Sprinter Sacre in a multiple. Will it come off? The honest answer is I don't know.

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Timeform Horses to Follow Extra for Betfair Super Saturday at Newbury is out now. Includes 5 big-race previews and an interview with Paul Nicholls.

Comments (1)

1. Jamie Archer | 21 February 2012

   I like you Jamie. But that is rubbish about Peddlers Cross not being right against the Sprinter.