Handicappers' Corner: Carry That Weight

Timeform Debate / Phil Turner / 16 January 2012 / 3 Comments

Colin Tizzard's Hey Big Spender

"This latest win provided a good example as to why it's unwise to be put off by a horse just because he or she is carrying top weight..."

As idiot betting maxims go, they don't get much more lame than "never back the top weight in a handicap" argues Timeform jumps handicapper Phil Turner.

Indeed, it's right up there with "always back the outsider of three" or "avoid horses with four white socks" as foolproof systems destined to send you straight to the poorhouse.

Hey Big Spender (Timeform rating c161) seems to be on a one-horse mission to disprove the first theory this season, having now twice shouldered top weight to land valuable staying prizes, with his win in Saturday's Grade 3 Classic Chase at Warwick supplementing a victory in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in late-November. This latest win provided a good example as to why it's unwise to be put off by a horse just because he or she is carrying top weight, with Hey Big Spender's presence in the field meaning six of his twelve rivals were forced to race from out of the handicap, which automatically put him at an advantage against them - in fact, only the frustrating Faasel (who fully lived up to his Timeform squiggle on Saturday) was ahead of Hey Big Spender on our adjusted Timeform ratings for the Warwick showpiece, yet the latter was still allowed to go off a 14/1 (16.9 on Betfair SP!).

In truth, it wasn't a typical renewal of the Classic Chase, with drying ground and a stop-start gallop resulting in a lesser emphasis on stamina than is usually associated with the race - only thirty-three lengths covered the 13 runners (who all completed) at the line, as opposed to fifty-two lengths with seven finishers (eight were pulled up) in 2011.

That said, it still represented a career-best effort from Hey Big Spender, who was chased home by a trio of runners racing from out of the weights, namely Fredo (c134), Strongbows Legend (c135) and Major Malarkey (c134).

The two last-named geldings arguably would have finished closer but for late mistakes and patient tactics respectively, so they should go well again in similar company before the season is out. There are loftier targets ahead for Hey Big Spender, however, as his entry in the Cheltenham Gold Cup testifies. Admittedly Colin Tizzard's nine-year-old still has plenty to find with the big two, Long Run (c182) and Kauto Star (c181), but there is decent prize money down to sixth place and he certainly wouldn't look out of place in the field - another graduate from handicap company, Midnight Chase (c160), picked up £13,400 for finishing fifth in the 2011 Gold Cup.

The Grand National was also mooted as a possible target, though the fact Hey Big Spender had failed to complete on five of his twelve starts prior to Warwick rather tempers enthusiasm as to his suitability for the Aintree marathon. He'd be one of the more likely National types from a handicapping viewpoint, though, due to the way the weights for that race are framed nowadays.

No top weight has won the National since the great Red Rum claimed the second of his record-breaking three wins in 1974 and BHA senior jumps handicapper Phil Smith has expressed a desire to end that drought - he's been quoted as saying he'll be "overjoyed" if a top weight can win again. To facilitate this, Smith now adopts a policy of compressing the handicap by giving the very best horses a chance to race off a lower rating than would be the case over conventional fences (the top weight is usually allotted around 7 lb less than its BHA mark).

In our opinion, the merits of such preferential treatment are questionable at best, particularly as the law of probability alone goes some way to explaining the dearth of top-weighted Grand National winners - the top weight, after all, has just a one in forty chance most years if judged by the number of runners. In addition, we feel that the mammoth prize money on offer should be enough of an incentive for connections of top chasers to run in the National.

Still, partly as a result of this policy, it is worth stressing that there have been several notable weight-carrying performances in recent history. Suny Bay (12-0 in 1998), Hedgehunter (11-12 in 2006) and Don't Push It (11-10 in 2011) have all been placed under top weight, whilst only five horses carried more weight than the last-named gelding when he won the 2010 renewal, a quintet which included the runner-up Black Apalachi. Therefore, it'll be no surprise if those towards the head of the weights warrant close inspection come the big day on April 14th.....

Comments (3)

1. rickie barnett | 17 January 2012

   Sadly the saying is ALWAYS back the top weight in handicaps as its the best horse, which renders this article useless.

2. Phil Turner | 17 January 2012

   Haha - I'll concede that is also a saying, but I've witnessed many a mug punter down the years adhering to the system which is mentioned in the article. We've clearly been frequenting different betting shops....

3. john | 18 January 2012

   Yeah, Fill, just admit it you messed up ear with the wrong system, you thought to yourself "I'm going to have an easy day today", but me 'n rickeeee sussed you out!