Trainer idiocy can be a real headscratcher

Betting Strategy / Jack Houghton / 23 November 2008 / 4 Comments

Jack Houghton breaks down the theories behind even pacing, perhaps some of the trilby wearers should give it a read.

Considering they play such a central role in the sport, it's concerning how dim-witted some trainers seem to be. Occasionally they even make jockeys look bright.

Prior to a handicap hurdle last week, a high-profile member of the trilby-wearing brigade came on telly to tell viewers his horse had a low weight, and so he had told the jockey to make "plenty of use of the horse." The tactical masterclass was rounded off with the comment: "That'll make the weight tell on the others."

The comment is so stupid, on so many levels, it's hard to know where to start when dissecting it. And the fact it was uttered, and gleefully nodded-along-to by the interviewer, was a bit of a concern. There's been ample advice and comment posted on betting.betfair about sectional timing and the like; but perhaps it's all been pointless?

Because if people really believe a horse should be asked to run at a faster early pace than normal - just because it carries a low weight in relation to its rivals - then all that highfalutin' mathematical talk is just a waste of time. First principals need to be addressed... well... first.

In a race, each horse has an optimum performance it is theoretically able to achieve. This is determined by a combination of factors: the horse's raw ability, its current level of fitness, and the conditions it is faced with. How close a horse comes to running to its theoretical optimum is determined, almost exclusively, by how even a pace it runs. I say "almost exclusively" because in jump racing, of course, jumping inefficiency will negatively impact performance.

Putting jumping aside though, let's say a horse is theoretically able to run a mile - on a flat, straight course with consistent ground - in 90 seconds. To achieve this, it would need to run each furlong in exactly 11.25 seconds. Okay, that's not quite true. The first furlong would be slower because it would need to exit the stalls and reach race pace, but, for the sake of a straightforward example, I'm ignoring that.

If our horse runs an early furlong faster than 11.25 seconds, then it will run later furlongs slower - and disproportionately so. In other words, a half second too fast early on will equate to more than half a second added on somewhere else.

This is due to the energy systems horses (and all athletes for that matter) use when racing. Although a gross oversimplification of what actually happens physiologically, a horse running a fast early furlong is effectively like a car over-revving; it is using its available fuel inefficiently and will be running on empty quicker than necessary.

The weight a horse carries has a direct impact on its theoretical optimum performance - handicapping models demonstrate this beyond all reasonable doubt - but relative weight has absolutely no affect on the requirement to run even pace to achieve that optimum.

A horse running the early stages of a race faster than its optimal even pace may damage the chances of other horses whose jockeys dutifully engage in the same stupidity. But - provided at least one jockey is able to stumble across a more suitable pace for its horse - the effort will likely prove self-destructive.

This is why races run at paces significantly faster or slower than the average are prone to produce results that are difficult to explain from a pure handicapping point of view. Although not always the case, a 100-1 winner is frequently the result of poor pacing by market principals.

And this is why the sectional timing bods - who understand more precisely than most when a horse has been ridden in a way that has over- or under-played its true ability - enjoy a significant edge over the rest of the market.

And this is why those who don't understand these basic tenets of racehorse performance - like some trainers and jockeys - make such shocking racing tacticians. Which is ironic really.

Comments (4)

1. Simon | 23 November 2008

   Jack,

   I feel you're doing a disservice to both trainers and jockeys here. Whilst it is clear that not all trainers and jockeys are equal, it is clear that, on balance, they know significantly more than we do.

   I have stood in the parade ring prior to races and been very impressed with the knowledge that any given jockey brings. The jockey, from his (or her) work with horses from many different stables will have a balanced view of the ability of the horse against others in the race and will be able to judge the pace accordingly.

   As in every professional field, some jockeys will be good and some will be bad judges. However, it is fairly obvious to even the most novice of punters that a horse who does too much early on, is, on balance, a less likely winner.

   To add to that, even the most modest of pilots knows that they have more of a chance with their mount if they don't do too much early on to stay with the pace. Producing a performance in the closing stages is not the preserve of the award winning jockeys - many of the lesser lights are equally as capable of timing a run for a win when they know they've got enough horse left under them at the business end of the race.

   Of course, you are right to tie in the performance of a horse with the way that it is run, but such sweeping generalisations about trainers and jockeys are trite and quite frankly, lazy.

2. M Anderson | 25 November 2008

   Given that this site wouldn't exist without trainers & jockeys, rather foolish to make insulting remarks about both in the first paragraph I think.

3. Simon Rowlands | 25 November 2008

   As one of the "sectional timing bods", I feel I have an edge not because it is easy for a jockey to judge the pace accurately while on horseback but because it is difficult. I do try to make it clear that, with some exceptions, if I describe a horse as having gone too fast or too slow that is not an implied criticism of the jockey: pace judgement is one of the many skills that a jockey needs to strive for, and a difficult/near-impossible skill at that.

   However, I agree with Jack that some pronouncements about pace in horseracing show that the individuals concerned do not even understand the principles involved, much less that they have the know-how to put them into practice. And that does not just apply to jockeys and trainers, but journalists and other media commentators also.

   I have possibly just offended another section of this site's core constituency with that remark, but there you go.

   Simon

4. Jack Houghton | 25 November 2008

   Simon & M Anderson,

   I wouldn't worry too much about jockeys and trainers being insulted by what is written above. Most of them can't read.

   ;-)