Robin Keck's Stable Form: Time to double the stakes with the finish line in sight

Betting Strategy / Robin Keck / 23 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

"I’ve always had a soft spot for Brian Ellison ever since I aggressively backed one of his staying chasers a few years ago that had drifted alarmingly in the betting (it’s a curious thing but I get extra pleasure from successfully backing a market drifter). I’m very confident that his string will continue to deliver this week."

Robin Keck needs to win just £374.18 in the next 38 days to achieve his £1000 goal and he's got a canny way of doing it

Another quiet week for this column with a small loss incurred. A man of integrity would stick to his beliefs and keep with a successful system but I'm as shallow as a puddle and I'm going all out to reach my £1,000 target. Last week's results have made it clear to me that I need be much more aggressive in my stable selections over the final weeks.

I remain very happy with my leading stables of James Hetherton and Sarah Humphrey but they only have a few runners every week and I need to take a risk for or against some more prominent trainers. There is an expression with the word 'bust' in it that springs to mind but as I'm typing this pre-watershed I'll keep it clean.

Rather than alter my overall system I'm going to go double stakes on a hot and cold stable in each of the final few weeks.

Brian Ellison is first up on the warmer side having had five winners from his last 10 runners. John Forbes at BSP [30.4] obliged on Sunday at Aintree in one of those stirring finishes that reminds me that it doesn't have to be the highest class race to make my heart leap. I've always had a soft spot for this trainer ever since I aggressively backed one of his staying chasers a few years ago that had drifted alarmingly in the betting (it's a curious thing but I get extra pleasure from successfully backing a market drifter). I'm very confident that his string will continue to deliver this week.

My opposition of Philip Hobbs ended quickly this week as he was automatically cut after a winner but little damage was done. Any early season weakness from this stable has ended and the market seems be getting his horses about right now. I'll replace him on the cold list with David Pipe although I admit it's very premature to say confidently that all is not right at Pond House.

A few of his runners have not been finishing their races well which I take as a sign of a potential bug in the yard but there have been notable exceptions including Master Overseer who powered up the Towcester hill on Sunday. I could, of course, wait for more evidence but by that time the rest of the market will have taken note and I'll have to risk more capital to lay his runners.

Just £374.18 needed with 38 days left - less than a tenner a day doesn't sound too difficult when I put it like that.

Total Starting Bank = £250.00
Closing Bank after Week 25 = £661.47
Week 26 Result = -£35.65
Closing Bank = £625.82