Robin Keck's Stable Form: Reflections on this punting experiment

Betting Strategy / Robin Keck / 30 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Whilst I am certain that stable form is a hugely useful betting guide I should always be watchful for those random numerical clusters. I was close to certain that David Pipe was out of form at 2:25pm on Thursday until he banged in BSP [18.61] and [6.40] winners in consecutive races at Uttoxeter."

There are four weeks left of Robin's £1,000 challenge - so what are the lessons he's learnt so far?

My gamble to double stakes on both a 'Hot' and 'Cold' stable didn't bear immediate fruit with Brian Ellison having no winners from his six runners. Laying David Pipe (so to speak) actually returned a nice profit but I'll admit that was a fluke and did not reflect any weakness in his stable's form. David was soon back amongst the winners and ended the week in excellent form. My other 'Hot' stables of Sarah Humphrey and James Hetherton were quiet but can remain on the list. Lee Smyth's good run is getting quite dated now and he's cut.

I'm not giving up on my double stakes strategy and my 'Hot' and 'Cold' stables this week are James Ewart and Andrew Turnell respectively.

James had a double on Sunday at Carlisle bringing his run to four winners from his last ten runners including some decent priced returns for their backers. In contrast Andrew had a great start to the season but his horses haven't been finishing their races recently and he's had only one placed horse in the last couple of weeks from 18 runners. Curiously the placed horse (Connor's Choice at Kempton) was Andrew's only recent runner on the Flat so does that suggest I should distinguish between a stable's good/bad form between the different codes? Interesting.

With only a month to go until the end of this column I thought it was time to begin reflecting on the stable related lessons I've learnt during the second half of 2009:-

1) Whilst I am certain that stable form is a hugely useful betting guide I should always be watchful for those random numerical clusters. I was close to certain that David Pipe was out of form at 2:25pm on Thursday until he banged in BSP [18.61] and [6.40] winners in consecutive races at Uttoxeter. Plenty of people also thought something was amiss with Paul Nicholls last Monday after his first three runners ran stinkers before Harouet hosed up at Ffos Las. Thankfully I didn't get duped that time as I NEVER believe this stable is cold.
2) Never oppose a Richard Fahey runner simply because you believe it is badly handicapped after a winning run. His 2009 season defied belief.
3) The single best sign of a stable that is out of form is observing that their horses find nothing for pressure. Close analysis of in-running prices can reveal this if you're unable to watch every race.
4) The most interesting 'Hot' stables from a value perspective are the less well known trainers with a small string. My favourites this year have included Richard Ford (after his stable relocation), Sarah Humphrey and Ronnie Barr.

Just one month left and the £1,000 target seems a forlorn hope but I'm not giving up just yet.

Total Starting Bank = £250.00
Closing Bank after Week 26 = £625.82
Week 27 Result = -£5.00
Closing Bank = £620.82