Robin Keck's Stable Form: Things not looking so bright for Stoute

Betting Strategy / Robin Keck / 09 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Mr Keck considers the trainers to take on over the next six days...

A strong week for this column but before we discuss why I make Tom Segal, Dave Nevison and Patrick Veitch look like a bunch of amateurs let me make one thing very clear. I DON'T OWN OR HAVE ANY CONNECTION WITH ALAN SWINBANK'S SIX LENGTH WINNER MISS KECK! Despite a plethora of congratulatory emails I am nil pounds better off and had concluded that the animal was just plain slow. I've traded emails with the stable and am told the name is a Lancastrian expression for a girl showing off. You may need that information one day... unlikely I grant you.

Let's move back to why I'm a genius.

There are a variety of reasons why a stable may hit a hot streak but Richard Ford's recent form is a fascinating example. His entire stable of horses has recently moved to a new location alongside the M6 and his runners have clearly enjoyed the lack of tranquillity. Perhaps they just love watching the cars go by but whatever has happened his runners have been placed 671111 with the four winners priced at [5.5], [13.0], [9.0] and [4.5]. This week's win for Classic Quart was pure joy for backers as he led them all a merry dance and won by 29 lengths. I hope he does the same merry dance at Market Rasen on Friday as I can't bear backing unmerry dancing losers.

J Howard-Johnson and Ollie Pears didn't have many runners but I didn't note any sustained good form so will sack them for now. James Fanshawe's cold spell is over as he sacked himself from my cold list by having a winner. Amanda Perrett is still struggling though and accounted for a significant proportion of this week's profit with five out of six horses unplaced. She stays on the cold list.

I suggested last week that one of the big stables will hit a cold patch sooner or later and I may have just found it. It may be premature to conclude Sir Michael Stoute's horses are under a cloud but his last nine runners have yielded no winners and only one place despite SP's of [1.73], [2.5], [3.0] and [4.0] being amongst them. If I'm wrong and it's a statistical aberration there is no reason I won't break even. It's an exciting opportunity if I'm right as the market won't easily desert his high-class horses. Cue picture of Stoute standing beneath a cloud at the top of this column (editor's note: sadly impossible to find, better stick to attractive stars of US dramas).

Total Starting Bank = £250
Closing Bank after Week One = £240
Week Two Result = + £42.70
Closing Bank = £282.70

Allow me two small refinements to the rules of this column...

1. Monday's results are excluded from all calculations as I tend to write the column that day and don't want any suggestions of skulduggery.
2. Any runners from the cold listed stables with an SP of [11.0] or over are excluded going forward. I'm not trying to buy money on outsiders and it is counter intuitive to seek out their bigger priced runners when they may bounce back to form at any time.