Betting Strategy: Reverse Labouchere staking

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 12 August 2008 / Leave a Comment

Can the classic casino strategy be adapted for horseracing? Wayne Bailey adjusts the system for use on horseracing with some very interesting results...

I've been told that Reverse Labouchere has become legendary in some betting circles, and many a gambler has made fortunes - or indeed become broke by following it.

As a person that has a passion for betting, I'm slightly embarrassed to admit I'd never heard of it, until meeting an old school friend back in April who regularly plays the casinos. Once I got my head around the concept, I tested it on the horses. There are plenty of lengthy articles on the web explaining how it all works, but it's pretty simple really:

Firstly, you start off with a series of consecutive numbers. This set of numbers will determine your stakes and can be adjusted depending on the level of risk you wish to take. However, for simplicity, we'll start with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.

To get your stake, add the first and last number together - in this case, one plus seven. One plus seven equals eight - so your first stake is £8.

If the horse wins:

Insert the stake used to the end of the number sequence - so it now becomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.

When you've done this, you again add the first and last number together - in this case, one plus eight. Therefore, the new stake for the next bet is £9.

If the horse loses:

In the event of a loss, you simply remove the first and last number from the sequence. So had the first bet lost, the sequence would then become 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Therefore, the new stake for the next bet is £8 (two plus six).

Continue in this fashion, adding the stake to the sequence after a win, but removing the first and last numbers after a loss. If you hit a number of losers in a row and all the numbers in a sequence are used up - start a new sequence.

Now, how you go about getting your selections is entirely up to you - but I decided to put my money where my mouth was. A few months back, I wrote an article here that advised punters to back Aidan O'Brien trained runners in races for horses aged 4 or older:

Click here to see the article in full.

With some decent older animals in his yard, I expected quite a few winners. Here are the results of backing such horses in 2008 using Reverse Labouchere:





So a profit of twenty quid or so is shown overall - but that was mainly thanks to a good run at the end. It was an interesting experiment, and while by no means conclusive, I've a couple of observations:

Firstly, there's not much point in doing this unless your selections have a very good strike rate. The above showed a strike rate of 41%, but numerous losers in a row quickly took the bank into the red.

A strike rate of 50-60 percent would probably work much better. However, that brings it's own problems as nobody can maintain such a high strike rate without including mostly short priced horses.

Secondly, it would probably be best to have a 'get out' point in each sequence. I was never a fan of 'stop at a win' systems, but in this case, a good 'get out' point may be £50 or thereabouts.
In other words, when I reach £50 profit, I bank that money and start again from scratch.
If you don't 'get out' at some point, the stakes will sooner or later catch up with you and break your betting pot. By 'getting out', hopefully the money you bank along the way will add up nicely - allowing you to bust a pot or two further down the line, while still remaining in profit overall.

Conclusion:

The idea is well thought out and fairly sound. It works by dramatically increasing stakes after a win, while at the same time, it gradually decreases the stake after a loss - therefore, it is essential to run up consecutive winners along the way. Certainly, with a good string of wins, the bank can build rapidly - but things don't always work like that in racing! I now understand why those who won with it, swear by it - while those who lost, loathe it.

The overall verdict? The jury is still out...