Naysayers must learn about laying before criticising

Betting Strategy / Jack Houghton / 20 September 2008 / 4 Comments

Jack Houghton has a message for the lay-haters and there's a little something for tipsters too.

When Panorama revisited the race-fixing question, the usual bunch of moron know-nothings trotted out their long-held view that it is dangerous to allow unlicensed persons to lay bets.

That many of these people either work in the betting industry, or rely on the levy it provides to fund their employment, is a concern. How can a group of people who depend on an industry for their very existence be so completely ignorant as to how it functions?

Perhaps we shouldn't care? Well I wouldn't, but the dimwit-talk has an unfortunate consequence: some punters approach their betting by incorrectly assuming that backing and laying are somehow different. And this fuzzy talk undermines their ability to think and act like winning punters. Understanding the mathematical reality - that backing and laying are two sides of the same coin - is crucial.

If you back a horse in a match bet, you are, by definition, laying the other. And vice versa. The same is true no matter how many runners are in a race.

Take a four runner race where all horses are priced at [4.0]. You could lay one for £100. Your profit if right would be £100, your loss if wrong £300. Alternatively, you could back the rest of the horses for £100 at [4.0] each. Your profit if right would be £100, your loss if wrong £300. It's exactly the same bet.

Laying (or selling if you're a spread bettor) simply makes your life easier. Rather than working out the complex series of back bets you'd have to place on all the other horses in the field when they are different prices, one lay bet does it for you.

Those that eschew laying on the basis of the opinion offered by the blockhead brigade are denying themselves potentially profitable betting opportunities.

Take a maiden race with a 4-5 favourite: an un-raced horse from a popular stable. You know it's bad value and shouldn't be such a short price, but have no way of reliably assessing which of the once or twice raced opposition you should back against it. By laying (or selling) the favourite you have the rest of the field running for you at 5-4.

And when a bet is value, it's value; whether backing or laying.

* * *

Talking of value... a desperate call to all tipsters: stop putting up horses to back or lay without recommending an execution price.

Of all the racing journalists who tip, only a tiny minority advise a price at which their tip represents a good bet. The vast majority simply name a horse or two they think will win (or lose). I've been guilty of it myself in the past. But are we really saying our selection represents value no matter what its price? Of course not. We might recommend backing a horse at [7.2], but would be unlikely to tip the same horse, in the same race, if it was trading at [1.32].

For some tipsters, given the time they are writing, it may be difficult to indicate an exact recommended price. The make-up of a field may not be certain. But this is surely a minority? The vast bulk should be able to at least give a guide price.

Take the Racing Post and Pricewise. It's hard to have anything but respect for Tom Segal. Every time he tips, he recommends a price. Now, given his popularity, there may be the question of whether that price is available to any decent stake; but nonetheless it is there for all to see, and so it is easy to track whether or not he is proving profitable.

I guess this is why most prefer to steer clear of indicating a value price for their selection. It's much easier to hide when there is no auditable record of your performance.

The last few times I've pundited on Betfair Radio, I've made a point of accurately recording which bets are recommended, and at what price. After four successful stints, I thought it a great idea. After my fifth, when anyone following my selections would have lost over half of the profit made on my four previous visits, I thought it a less good idea. But don't those who read and listen to tipsters deserve to be able to track whether or not they're any good?

My advice is to start holding them to account. Let's start on betting.betfair. If a tipster fails to accompany their selection with a recommended price; show your disapproval using the comment section available below.

Comments (4)

1. Wayne Bailey | 20 September 2008

   Some good points Jack, and leaving out the prices is something I've been guilty of too.

   Pricing up races is a task many punters simply wont try out, but it's a nettle that needs to be grasped. If you were betting on a football match for example, you would weigh up your team's chances before placing the bet, and look for a price that represents that chance. Amazingly, many people don't ask themselves that similar question in racing: 'What chance do I think this horse has of actually winning?'.
   If you think the horse has a 25% chance of winning, then look for 4.0 or higher. OK, that's putting it in very simple terms, but that's what people need to do. If that horse was 2.0, then it shouldn't be a bet. I'd guess that the majority would still go ahead and bet at 2.0 however.

   On the issue of pricing up races, a topic you've spoke about before - I would urge readers to try it out. A couple of years ago, I was doing some tipping for a newspaper here in Ireland. Copy had to be sent by 4pm the day before racing to be included in the next day's paper. There were no early prices available for most races, and I must admit, it was initially very daunting not to have the comfort of the Racing Post and Sporting Life to help me out.

   I can honestly say however, I learned tonnes about betting from looking at races without the 'benefit' of tissue prices. I'd challenge any reader to go to the Racing Post site a day before a race, and try it out. No matter how hard we try not to, it's all too easy to be influenced by the comments and tissue prices of others. Analyzing a race without these luxuries can teach very valuable lessons, and it's also very interesting to compare notes and see if you've missed anything big, when the actual tissue prices and analysis do come out.

2. Charlie | 21 September 2008

   "But don't those who read and listen to tipsters deserve to be able to track whether or not they're any good?"

   
   Yes

   
   Every "tipster" BF, RP, Weekemnder, Racing Ahead etc has should produce a profit and loss account

3. Damien | 23 September 2008

   I fully agree with your article Mr Houghton.

   Seeing as how you work for Betfair would you be kind enough to let us know why LAYDOUGH no longer shows the profit or loss figures. (We all know it is because the loss figures are ridiculous).

   Your points are good but if you dont sort out the tipsters on this website first and make there history fully visible then your points are worthless as Shiambourous and Laydough are the first pair that need sorting out.

   Lets tidy our own home up first and then look at tidying up the RP etc etc.

   Dont say its not your problem that Laydough and friends are happy to put people away by not showing figures or advising prices. Make it your problem and make them sort it out.
   How many times do we see a Shiambourous 80/20 get placed and the place odds are 1.3

   The betfair team all crow on about it being a winnnig bet but we dont need help with getting a 1.3 shot to place.

   Tidy this site up please or replace with new tipsters or end it.

4. Dave | 23 September 2008

   Thank you Jack for allowing us poor punters to have a opinion about tipsters.I am going to name and shame one of your fellow colleauges Lay Dough i am afraid and i would love to read your own thoughts and opinions about this tipster.

   Firstly just a simple example of this persons own copy
   LayDough: Thursday 18 September

   18 September 2008 | About LayDough

   LayDough looks at the 6.50 at Great Leighs on Sunday
   I think your horseracing editor should really look at the fixture list.
   Secondly this service used to have a running total but in the last few weeks he has sneakily shed the running total as he is losing around 700 points.
   Thirdly he claims the following on his blog and i quote----
   Each day we will recommend a lay or back depending on what the graph advises, but the focus of the service will be on finding horses to take on at poor odds.
   He is now putting up a horse every day each -way which bears absolutely no resemblence to his own model.
   Fourthly he has the poorest strike rate i believe of any tipster and i really question some of the reasoning behind his selections
   Fifthly on the rare occasion he has a horse placed he pats himself on the back in his blog which i feel kicks everybody in the teeth as he is losing a mint.
   Sixthly it is midday and this bloke has not even posted his selection as it appears he can post his selection minutes before a race which is totally unreasonable.
   Finally i look forward to a rebuttle from Lay Dough as he should stop hiding behind that name and come out and be transparent about who he is and more importantly give us the running totals of his losses.

   Thank you Jack for this opportunity to speak out and i really would like your opinion about Lay Dough and his methods and indeed his thinking behind this service