Looking for October profit? These trainers can help point the way

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 09 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

October is traditionally a difficult month for punters as the Flat season winds down, and the jumps step up in gear. Wayne Bailey has some profit pointers that may ease the pain...

I've often stated on these pages that trainers are creatures of habit, and following those habits can help earn a few quid.

Of course, whenever one puts forward a punting hypothesis based on trends, there'll always be someone else to shoot it down. Some like stats and trends punting - some don't. Anyone who reads my articles here and elsewhere knows I'm a fan, but I firmly believe that punters should do whatever works best for them. If you can make racing pay from the form book, more power to you. If watching the horses in the parade ring floats your boat, good on you.

While they are certainly not the only angle I use, trends play a very big part in my betting and race analysis. I've realised that I'm a bit of a geek really, and actually find it enjoyable sitting in front of a computer crunching numbers if it relates to racing. One of the best examples of what I'm talking about would be the record of Barbury Castle trainer, Alan King.

Backing his horses in December has made me a small fortune in the past two years, and he's shown a profit in that month every year since 2003. I like to have a reason to justify each trend before I follow it and I believe that King eases his horses into (and out of) the season gently and by the time December comes around, he's firing away on all cylinders.

October is another month where trainer trends can play their part. With the flat season winding down, and many jumps horses making their debut, the form-book can become a nightmare to decipher. Despite this being a difficult time of the year, some things remain constant. Certain trainers ease their horses into the season, while others go in with all guns blazing. Likewise on the flat, some trainers like to finish the season with a bang, while others let their horses have an 'easy' wind-down. Most people are aware of the big trainer trends, but here's a couple of smaller yards that have gone in my notebook, and their horses will carry my hard earned Euros this month...

W.K. Goldsworthy

Keith Goldsworthy may have a small yard, but he's a trainer that we all should keep a closer eye on. The dual purpose yard first came under my radar when Hills Of Aran beat Star De Mohaison over the New Year, and while that horse has disappointed of late, the Welsh based trainer is still a man to note. He doesn't have a huge amount of horses in training so the sample is small, but had you backed each Goldsworthy trained horse in October, you would have had six winners from 29 bets (20%) and shown a profit of £297 to £10 stakes.

M. Botti

Son of Italian champion trainer Alduino Botti, Marco has been performing well at this time of the year in the short time he's held a UK licence, with numerous wins and places. Botti was a successful jockey in his own right, and Green Ridge Stables is building up nicely. Again, it's a small sample, but had you backed each of his horses in the month of October, you'd have had eight wins from 32 bets (25%) and shown a profit of £440 to £10 stakes.

I feel like a pension advert here, but all trends based punting comes with a health warning and 'past performance is not necessarily a reliable guide to the future'. However, I'm confident enough in the above to put my own money down, and I'll be sure to report back at the end of the month with any profit or loss made to Betfair SP.

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If you are interested in trainer stats, feel free to make a post below and I'll help you out if at all possible.