Horseracing Betting Strategy: Trainers to follow in May

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 30 April 2009 / 2 Comments

Wayne Bailey's April trainers to follow showed a profit of £116.40 to £10 stakes. Read his May advice here...

* April profit to £10 stakes at Betfair SP: £116.40
* Overall profit to £10 stakes at Betfair SP: £561.80

I'm quite pleased with April's profit as I normally find this time of year tricky with the season changeover - so here's hoping the good run continues and a few quid will be added to the pot in May.

If you are unfamiliar with the theme of the article, I'll repeat once again what I'm attempting to do: I try to find the trainers who perform consistently well at the given time of the year. A consistent strike-rate (and profit) year-on-year is one of the main things I look for, but I'll also go a step further and have a look at the current horses in training at each yard. If I believe their current string of horses can continue the trend, I'll follow the trainer. Similarly, if a trainer performs poorly at the given time of year, I'll consider laying their horses.

Again, it comes with the usual health warnings and if you decide to follow, only do so with money you can afford to lose. Breaking the year into 12 segments and looking for trends is not a style that will suit everyone, but it's proved profitable for me down the years and I've had some nice priced winners along the way. Here's who I'll be following in May 2009:

Backing
Stoute, Sir Michael
Michael Stoute is usually a good performer early season, although last year was a little disappointing. It's often the sprinters that let him down so I like to concentrate on his horses over the longer trips of 1m2f or more. Since 2003, he's had 72 winners from 228 races (31.58%) in the month of May at those distances, and had you stuck a tenner on each, you'd have shown a profit of £624.
Nicholls, PF
Nicholls is having his best year ever in terms of number of wins so I'm hoping to get a few quid back on this one. His horses perform very well at this time of the year in general, but concentrating on those with good form last-time-out (first or second) can pay dividends. Since 2003, he's had 35 winners from 90 races (38.89%), showing a profit of £103.20 to £10 stakes.

Laying
Murtagh, FP
When laying, I have a cut-off point of [10.0] as I don't like taking on large liabilities. Most of Murtagh's horses will be over the limit but we might just get one or two shorter prices in the metaphorical satchel if we're lucky. Since 2003, Murtagh hasn't had a single May winner despite sending 81 horses to post.
Stokell, Miss A
Once again, I won't lay above [10.0], but it's worth taking on Ann Stokell's horses at this time of the year. Since 2003, she has had 90 runners during the month of May with none of those making it into the winners' enclosure.

Summary:
* Back Michael Stoute's horses in races of 1m2f or longer.
* Back Paul Nicholls' horses that were first or second last-time-out.
* Lay FP Murtagh's horses if priced [10.0] or less.
* Lay Ann Stokell's horses if priced [10.0] or less.

Comments (2)

1. Tanya | 04 May 2009

   Hello, Wayne! It's very rare i dare to post any comments on the blogs, but i just feel i must thank you for your sensible and highly professional advice. I've been reading quite a few of your articles and always found them interesting and informative, but only recently decided to give it a go. I followed your April "follow the trainer" and i'm quite happy with the result. I aslo remembered your advice that if the trainer is doing well it's worth following him for some more time. Today's Rainbow Peak was a really nice surprise at SP of 44.5 I hope you were on :-)
   Thanks again and the best of luck,
   Tanya, Russia

2. Wayne Bailey | 05 May 2009

   Thanks a lot for your kind comments. I only had a couple of euro on Rainbow Peak to be honest - wish it was more!