Horseracing Betting Strategy: Trainers to follow in June

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 01 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey takes a look at the trainers that are hot (and not!) in the month of June...

* May profit/loss to £10 stakes at Betfair SP: -£197.20
* Overall profit to £10 stakes at Betfair SP: +£364.60

I must admit that I'm disappointed with May's results and a couple of unsuccessful lays helped put a fairly big dent in the bank which knocked the running profit back down to just over £360.

Backing wise, Sir Michael Stoute performed reasonably well - but the prices of the winners just weren't good enough. Onwards and upwards as they say, and I hope to get things back on track in June now that the flat form has settled down. If you are unfamiliar with the theme of the article, I'll repeat once again what I'm attempting to do: I try to find the trainers who usually perform well at the given time of the year. A consistent strike-rate (and profit) year-on-year is one of the main things I look for, but I'll also go a step further and have a look at the current horses in training at each yard. If I believe their current string of horses can continue the trend, I'll follow the trainer. Similarly, if a trainer normally performs poorly at the given time of year, I'll consider laying their horses.

Again, it comes with the usual health warnings and if you decide to follow, only do so with money you can afford to lose. Breaking the year into 12 segments and looking for trends is not a style that will suit everyone, but it's proved profitable for me down the years and I've had some nice priced winners along the way. While May's results were not the greatest, the overall series is still in reasonable profit. Here's who I'll be backing (and laying) during the month of June:

Backing
Sir Mark Prescott: He normally performs reasonably well at this time of the year in general, but when he targets the lower class races, it's well worth following his horses. Since 2003, had you followed Prescott trained animals in Class 5, Class 6 or Class 7 races, you would have had 36 winners from 129 bets (27.9%) and shown a profit of £250 to £10 stakes.
William Haggas: Another good performer at this time of the year, Haggas does particularly well in maiden races where he's had 19 winners from 76 races (25%) since 2003, and showed a profit of £80 to £10 stakes.

Laying
When sifting through the stats I found quite a few trainers who simply don't do well mid-summer; so rather than trying to pick and choose which yard to lay, I'm going to take them all on provided the price is right. Since 2003, not one of the below has had a winner in June despite sending a total of 431 horses to post (combined). As mentioned before, I don't like racking up large liabilities so I'll only lay if the price is [10.0] or less:
Bromhead, Henry De
Crook, A
Jordan, F
Lynch, G T
Moffatt, James
Nolan, D A
Unett, J W

Summary

* Back Sir Mark Prescott's horses in Class 5, Class 6 or Class 7 races
* Back William Haggas' horses in maiden races
* Lay the horses from the above trainers list if priced [10.0] or less