Horseracing Betting Strategy: Trainers to follow in July

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 01 July 2009 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey takes a look at the trainers that are hot (and not!) during the month of July...

* June profit/loss to £10 stakes at Betfair SP: +£26.20

* Running profit/loss to £10 stakes at Betfair SP: +£390.80

A small few quid was made in June, but nothing to write home about to be honest. Still, profit is profit and any addition to the overall pot is welcome. However, I was let down by the lays once again which gives me some food for thought. Once again, if you are unfamiliar with the theme of the series, I'll do the usual cut and paste job and explain what I'm attempting to do here:

Basically, I try to find the trainers who usually perform well at the given time of the year. A consistent strike-rate (and profit) year-on-year is one of the main things I look for, but I'll also go a step further and have a look at the current horses in training at each yard. If I believe their current string of horses can continue the trend, I'll follow the trainer. Similarly, if a trainer normally performs poorly at the given time of year, I'll consider laying their horses.

Again, it comes with the usual health warnings and if you decide to follow, only do so with money you can afford to lose. Breaking the year into 12 segments and looking for trends is not a style that will suit everyone, but it's proved profitable for me down the years and I've had some nice priced winners along the way.

June Review

(All profit/loss recorded to £10 stakes at Betfair SP)

For June's article, I advised backing Prescott and Haggas horses (under certain conditions) and I also gave a list of trainers to lay if their horses were priced [10.0] or less. Prescott proved reliable and had four winners from 12 bets, showing a profit of just over £130. Haggas had two winners from 10 bets and showed a loss of a few pennies. On the laying side of things, there were four unsuccessful bets from fourteen so the overall loss was just over £100. Unfortunately, the lays knocked the profit down considerably and the final total for June was +£26.20. Let's hope we can get a better return in July:

Sir Mark Prescott

Once again, I'm going with a Prescott angle. He's well known for landing a handicap, but if you focus on class 4 handicaps or lower, he's had 59 winners from 148 races during July (since 2003) and shows a profit of £90 to £10 stakes.

Jeremy Noseda

At this time of the year, it's worth focusing on Noseda's younger horses (aged two and three). Since 2003, during the month of July he's had 52 winners from 178 races and had you put £10 on each, you'd show a profit of over £450.

Gordon Elliott

You'll have to keep an eye on the Irish racing for some of these, but Gordon Elliott is getting progressively better at this time of the year and may be worth following in 2009. Last year, he had 11 July winners from 44 races and showed a small profit to level stakes. The samples are small so I'm taking a chance but let's hope for more of the same this year.

Summary:

* Back Sir Mark Prescott trained horses in class 4, 5 & 6 handicaps
* Back Jeremy Noseda trained horses aged two and three
* Back Gordon Elliott trained horses