Horseracing Betting Strategy: Trainers to follow in April

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 02 April 2009 / 2 Comments

Wayne Bailey returns with his monthly look at the trainers to back (or lay). Jarvis, Stoute, and Oxx all make an appearance in April's column...

Running profit to £10 stakes at Betfair SP: +£445.40

Well, March wasn't the greatest month ever for the 'trainers to follow' series it must be said - and a loss of 18.79 points was incurred. I don't hide behind excuses however, and I'll hold my hands up and take responsibility. The good news is that the series is still in profit overall so I'm hoping for a good April as the flat is now back - my preferred code.

In case you are unfamiliar with the theme of the article, I'll repeat what I'm attempting to do each month: I try to find the trainers who perform consistently well at the given time of the year.

A consistent strike-rate (and profit) year-on-year is one of the main things I look for, but I'll also go a step further and have a look at the current horses in training at each yard. If I believe their current string of horses can continue the trend, I'll follow the trainer. Similarly, if a trainer performs poorly at the given time of year, I'll consider laying their horses.

Again, I must give the usual health warnings and if you decide to follow, only do so with money you can afford to lose. Breaking the year up into 12 segments and looking for trends is not everyone's cup of tea, and this style of betting will not suit all punters. However, it's served me well down the years and earned me a nice few quid along the way - so here's hoping we can give the bank a boost this month:

(All data is from 2003 onwards and is recorded to industry SP)

Back Michael Jarvis' horses in maiden races
Jarvis' maidens have shown a profit at this time of the year for five years straight, so I'm hoping for more of the same in 2009. He's had 29 winners from 93 races (31.18%) and shows a profit of £687 to £10 stakes since 2003.

Back Michael Stoute's horses in races restricted to 4yo+
With nearly 40 years of training under the belt, Sir Michael Stoute knows which races to place his horses in at this stage! Particularly noteworthy at this time of the year are his runners in races with the age restriction of 4yo+. He's had 13 winners from 33 bets (39.39%) and had you stuck £10 on each, you'd have shown a profit of just over £156.

Back John Oxx horses in maiden races
You'll have to turn your attention to the Irish racing for this one, but the Curragh based handler has had 27 winners from 113 races since 2003, and shows a profit of £188 to £10 stakes.

Back John Gosden's horses in races restricted to 4yo+
Another trainer that's good with the older horses at this time of the year, John Gosden's horses in the above races have won nine from 25 (36%) and show a profit of £222 to £10 stakes.

Lay John Dunlop's debutantes
At this time of the year, his horses that haven't run before have a poor record and show no wins from 33 races. However, I'm not keen on taking on large liabilities so I'll only lay at [10.0] or less.

Lay Matt Gingell trained horses
Gingell hasn't seen the winners' enclosure in the month of March in all years analysed despite sending 76 horses to post. Once again, I'll only lay if the price is [10.0] or less.

Comments (2)

1. Robert | 03 April 2009

   Wayne,

   Your helpful articles are much appreciated.
   For seasonal trainer statistics, would it be helpful to hold fire until the first runners showed some real form, or would that miss the best prices? What would be the criteria for showing that superior current form, other than winning?
   John Dunlop, based in the better winter weather of the UK's South, used to be the early season trainer to back - so things can change dramatically with time or perhaps more indoor training facilities, AW racing etc. In April 1995, for random example, JD had 12 winners from 36, 3yo runners. 11 won first time out. Now it is 0 from 33.

   Robert
   

2. Wayne Bailey | 04 April 2009

   Hi Robert, thanks for the comments - it's always good to get feedback on articles.

   I record the profit here each month to level stakes and so far so good.

   But personally, I like to go with half point stakes until on all bets for the first half of the month. I'll then review the records and up the stakes to a full point for trainers that are doing well, while reducing the stakes to a quarter point for those that don't do well. It's not an exact science really and I've been stung before when cutting back. However, it seems a safe approach even if it's a little conservative.