Ayr Gold Cup Betting: Look for outsiders if you want to profit from Saturday's big race

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 18 September 2008 / 1 Comments

With such a dreadful record for favorites, Wayne Bailey recommends taking a chance on some big priced selections in Saturday's big race...

When faced with a big handicap, we all have our own ways of narrowing down the field. Personally, I like to look back at previous races and records, and ask the question:
'What type of horse does it take to win this race?'

To answer that question, I look at many angles including (sssh!) trends. I also watch as many as previous runnings as possible as this always gives a good understanding of what the contest involves.

As I write this article, the field for the Ayr Gold Cup is still huge, and if I want to get some early bets on at good prices, I simply must narrow it down somewhat. So then, where to start....

Well, opposing fancied horses is always a good policy in this race so that should immediately knock Confuchias and Advanced off the list. It's easier said than done though. The fact that Karl Burke has a decent record in this makes me a bit nervous about the former, but when you consider the fact that just one favourite (Coastal Bluff in 1996) has won this contest in thirty years or so, it makes it a little easier to draw a line through his name. The latter won this race last year of course, and has come on well since being gelded in July. If anyone can buck the favourite trend, he can - so I'm keeping him on side in the place market just in case.

Next, we can cross off any three-year-old horses. Ok, proportionately, they don't represent a massive bunch down the years, but from the past fifty runners of that age, just four have placed - so they don't appeal as betting propositions.

Female horses also represent a small number in the grand scheme of things, but of those females that did run, they rarely made the frame.

Regarding weight and ratings, this is a race where the higher rated horses have struggled. Indeed, horses with an official rating of 100 or more have a very poor record in relation to the number of such horses that ran. There are exceptions of course (Advanced last year being a good example), but in general, the handicapper does his job well and weight slows them down.
So, from the bunch that are left (and likely to run), there are a few standing out that will carry my money at a nice prices. In a race like this, it's definitely worth having a number of horses on your side:

Tajneed - currently priced at [14.0]

Quite impressive on his return to racing last month at Ripon after a three month break. Distance form is a positive here, and he seems to be treated fairly in the weights.

River Falcon - currently priced at [24.0]

He performed reasonably well in this race last year, and that experience should count for something. The ground should suit just fine.

Baby Strange - currently priced [36.0]

I must admit, I was disappointed with his performance at Ripon last month but he never really settled and was performing reasonably well prior to that run. At such a big price, I'm willing to give him a second chance.

Mastership - currently priced [30.0]

Every time I back this horse, he runs into trouble. However, I believe he has talent hidden away and if he can get into position, he may be thereabouts.

Bel Cantor - currently priced [40.0]

He won a respectable handicap with ease last time out, and has been improving with every run. I've worries as to whether he'll actually make it to the race, but 39/1 still seems too high.

Advice:

The first piece of advice would be to keep stakes to a minimum in this race. It's not been friendly to punters down the years and 'freak' results are the norm. Not everyone is a fan of backing a number of horses in the same race, but it doesn't bother me in the slightest:

• Win market: Dutch Tajneed, River Falcon, Baby Strange, Mastership and Bel Cantor. A ten point bet would show a profit of 40 points should any selection win. If you are unsure about dutch staking, read this article: http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/like-a-profit-then-go-dutch-110907.html

• Place market: Back Advanced, Mastership and Bel Cantor

***

Comments (1)

1. Wayne Bailey | 18 September 2008

   Update: It looks like Mastership and Bel Cantor have not make the 48hr decs, so they get scratched from the list.