Focusing on course and distance can maximise your profits

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 09 October 2007 / 4 Comments

Irish racing expert Wayne Bailey has uncovered some exciting statistics from the formbook

While watching some old footage of the legendary Desert Orchid recently, it became obvious to me that certain horses have favourite stomping grounds. At tracks like Kempton, the late great 'Dessie' made it look all so easy. He clearly had his favourite distances too and, as a consequence, winning top races such as the King George VI became his favourite pastime.

So how much emphasis should we place on course and distance? The answer greatly depends on the type of race we play in, but it is definitely an angle worth considering.

With the new National Hunt season kicking in, I took out the form books and started to sift through the data. I decided to focus on the fate of horses that were returning to both the track and distance that they had won at previously. That is, of course, a horse with the letters CD beside its name on the racecard.

Overall, 15 per cent of CD winners went on to win again in all National Hunt races. The first thing that struck me however, were the vast differences in results depending on race type. For example, nearly 30 per cent of CD winners went on to win again when their next race was a novice hurdle, yet only 11 per cent managed this in handicap hurdles.

A 30 per cent win-rate in non-handicap novice hurdles represented a good starting point, so I decided to focus solely on such races. Novice hurdles are run at level weights and are generally considered a reliable type of race to have a bet in. At its most basic level, backing every CD winner in novice hurdles broke even to SP. As I analysed the data, something became very clear. Both the very young horses (three-year-olds), and the older horses (horses aged ten or more) were not winning nearly as much as the others. I can only speculate as to why, but one can assume it comes down to maturity, fitness and stamina. The younger horses are not fully developed and cannot always replicate past performances when faced with more mature animals, and the older horses may be past their peak. For whatever reason, it's safer to bet on horses that are aged between four and eight.

Focusing on the above criteria produced remarkably consistent results for each year that I analysed (2000 thorough to 2007). One other noteworthy variable is that the results are best if the race has no more than 15 runners. Larger fields hampered the horses' chances of replicating its CD win, so smaller fields are best.

So to summarise:

• Non-handicap novice hurdle races only
• Only consider CD winners
• Horse must be aged between four and eight
• Race must have no more than 15 runners

The results?

The above approach produced 225 winners from 721 bets since the year 2000, which represents a 31.2 per-cent strike rate. The profit to SP was £5,817 (using £100 stakes). While the average price was between 2/1 and 11/4, there were quite a number of high-priced winners every so often. I'd estimate therefore, that the profit would have been far higher using Betfair prices and would stand nearer the £15,000 mark to £100 stakes. A word of warning though: there was one losing year (2004). I haven't quite figured out why that particular year under performed, but it proves that things can, and do, go wrong in this game. No approach is foolproof and trends tend to change over time. Then again, that's all part of the challenge. We can take heart however, as the strike rate for 2007 (36.5%) is higher than average, so there may be life in this for some time to come.

Comments (4)

1. JOHN DRINNAN | 11 November 2007

   RE ARTICLE NOVICE HURDLERS I WONDERED IF THERE WAS A FURTHER TREND IN DAYS BETWEEN RACES FOR THIS STAT.SO AS TO MAKE IT MORE PROFITABLE.

2. Wayne Bailey | 03 January 2008

   Hi John, sorry seemed to have missed your comments somehow. That's an interesting angle. Here are the results broken down by days since last race:

   Days since last race ........ Bets ........ Wins ........ Return to SP

   
   1 or 2 ........ 1 ........ 0 ........ 0.00%
   3,4 or 5 ........ 11 ........ 5 ........ 211.10%
   6,7,8 or 9 ........ 41 ........ 21 ........ 153.40%
   10 to 14 ........ 139 ........ 36 ........ 78.40%
   15 to 19 ........ 115 ........ 37 ........ 96.60%
   20 to 25 ........ 104 ........ 36 ........ 88.30%
   26 to 31 ........ 100 ........ 25 ........ 102.30%
   32 to 40 ........ 68 ........ 24 ........ 158.30%
   41 to 60 ........ 74 ........ 19 ........ 98.30%
   61 to 90 ........ 30 ........ 8 ........ 186.50%
   91 or more ........ 56 ........ 17 ........ 86.60%
   
   
   

3. Allan | 10 February 2009

   Hi Wayne, Been following this idea for a while now and hit the jackpot with it yesterday in the 1.30 at Plumpton when Ray Diamond won at betfair sp odds of 62.74. Many thanks for your efforts as the're much appreciated. Have you managed to find any trainers to follow for February ?.......Allan

4. Wayne Bailey | 11 February 2009

   Hi Allan - Ray Diamond was a cracking price at 63.0 in retrospect. Glad you were on too.

   Regarding the trainer article... They will be resuming from March onwards so keep an eye out. So far they show a profit of £633 to £10 stakes, so let's hope for more of the same.