Flat Turf Betting: The trainers to follow as the 2008 season winds down

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 02 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey's profit pointers as the flat season enters its final months...

The one thing we can be certain of in racing is that there are no certainties. Indeed, it's the very reason, as Jeffrey Bernard remarked, that: "In most betting shops, you will see three windows marked BET HERE, but only one window with the legend PAY OUT".

A true statement and an indication of the tough task we punters face on a daily basis.
However, some things do remain constant - for a time at least. Put in a bit of graft, and you will find plenty of what I like to call 'pointers' that can help us on the road to picking a winner. If you want to make some money at Dundalk for example, look no further than the Ger Lyons/Johnny Murtagh combination. If you need a few quid for Christmas; back Alan King's horses in December.

You see, trainers are creatures of habit. They have their favorite courses, they have their favorite races, and just as importantly, they have times of the year where they perform best. When you look deeply into how, where, and when a trainer enters his/her horses, I guarantee you that you'll start to see patterns that repeat year after year. I'm not saying that such patterns are the holy grail (or will last forever), but would you feel comfortable backing a trainer who consistently shows a 5% strike-rate at a certain time of the year when his average yearly rate is 15%?

As the flat season winds down, it's worth checking to see which trainers like to go out with a bang, topping up the prizemoney as the season ends - and just as important, those trainers who ease operations down gently, and take a less aggressive approach with their horses at this time of the year. Once again, I'm not advocating that you use the following as some sort of 'system' - rather, they are simply extra variables to consider in the many pieces of the jigsaw that is a horse race. The flat season winds up in November, so I've had a look at the trainers to follow/avoid in the months of September and October:

(All data is from 2003 onwards. Trainer must have had 50 runners or more in Sep/Oct over the time period to be analysed)

Trainers to note

Trainer ... Strike rate ... Profit/Loss

• Suroor, Saeed Bin ... 25.82% ... +46.46
• O´Brien, A P ... 20.95% ... -102.95
• Tregoning, M P ... 19.86% ... -8.86
• Stoute, Sir Michael ... 19.09% ... -22.03
• Gosden, J H M ... 18.51% ... +67.94
• Prescott, Sir Mark ... 18.30% ... -94.63
• Oxx, John M ... 17.60% ... +4.23
• Jarvis, M A ... 17.41% ... -51.56
• Loder, D R ... 15.97% ... -19.84
• Cecil, H R A ... 15.74% ... -32.11

As you can see, Suroor performs well late in the season. This is tricky, as Godolphin are having a terrible year. Is it worth following them in 2008? All their horses are going off at good prices because of their recent poor results; so the backer may get some great value as their traditional upturn period arrives. However, my gut instinct says stay away. O'Brien performs, but is over-backed, as is Stoute. Gosden is interesting and showed blindly backed profit in three of the five years researched.

Trainers to avoid

Here are the worst ten trainers for the time period:

Trainer ... Strike Rate ... Profit/Loss

• Keane, Gerard ... 0% ... -119
• McEntee, P S ... 0% ... -60
• Mitchell, P ... 0% ... -64
• Gorman, J T ... 0.71% ... -132
• McCourt, T G ... 0.95% ... -189
• Polglase, M J ... 1.10% ... -57
• Loughnane, Daniel Mark ... 1.14% ... -83.5
• Storey, W ... 1.23% ... -55
• Collingridge, H J ... 1.32% ... -50
• Leahy, Augustine ... 1.33% ... -70.5

As I say, the above is not a system or a holy grail - but will you think twice about backing a Gerard Keane trained horse in the next few weeks?

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