Champion Hurdle Betting: Katchit could show that opposing the herd's view results in profit

Betting Strategy / Simon Rowlands / 12 November 2008 / 2 Comments

Writing off last year's Champion Hurdle winner already may not be wise, says Simon Rowlands, who also looks ahead to this weekend's Gold Cup.

Recent events have reminded me that there are recurring themes when people analyse form, and that, as with many such things, there can be mileage in taking the opposite view to the crowd.

Firstly, and perhaps most importantly, there seems to be a widespread tendency to view performances - good and bad - in isolation, as if what the horse in question achieved previously counts for little. Secondly, with the recent past in mind, there seems to be a lack of appreciation of just what stiff tasks some of our better jumpers have when conceding weight to inferior rivals.

Kauto Star was the one who got written down prematurely this time last year, having been beaten narrowly by Monet's Garden (conceding that one a stone in weight) in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree, and this year it has been Katchit's turn.

There is a sizeable difference between Kauto Star and Katchit in terms of basic ability - the former is one of the best chasers in history while the latter is a substandard Champion Hurdle winner - but the crucial point was that neither was faced with an easy task, nor, arguably, with their ideal conditions at a time of the season when they were not sure to be at their best.
Katchit was beaten by Chomba Womba and Takeroc in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday, but was it as bad an effort as some have made it out to be?

Here is an alternative version: horses winning handicaps are usually better than their handicap marks; there was no reason to imagine that Katchit was better than 166, which is what he ran off; his effort at Wincanton has been rated more highly by Timeform than anything he did prior to Cheltenham last season; he may well be better suited by the demands of 16.5f at Cheltenham than by 16f at Wincanton; my standard time for the former is 17.5 sec more than for the latter, and Katchit was staying on at the death having got outpaced in what the sectionals suggest was a race run at a decent pace.

Numerous theories have been advanced as to why Katchit got beaten, including the puzzling one that he "isn't built to carry big weights": the weight he carried on Saturday was exactly the same weight as he carried when winning the Champion Hurdle! But the truth surely is that he is not good enough to give smart horses like Chomba Womba and Takeroc lumps of weight, and to beat them, without everything going right for him.

Katchit is out to [10.5] in the ante-post market for the 2009 Champion Hurdle on Betfair. He would not have to get much bigger to be worth a bet for a repeat win at Cheltenham in March, in spite of his limitations.

* * *

This coming weekend sees the annual riddle that is "guess the handicap mark for Irish-trained horses coming to Britain".

The history behind this seasonal phenomenon is that the handicappers in charge of racing in Britain clearly don't trust the ratings of the handicappers in charge of racing in Ireland and choose to assess Irish horses independently. The evidence suggests that they are right to do so in general, but this approach has resulted in some head-scratching anomalies.

For instance, in the first race at Cheltenham on Saturday - the novice handicap hurdle - the Irish-trained Games last ran off a mark of 98 in hurdles (finishing 11th) and goes off 20 higher here; Nazdaq last ran off a mark of 99 in hurdles (finishing sixth) and goes off eight higher here; and The God of Love last ran off a mark of 117 in hurdles (finishing sixth) and goes off just two higher here. Go figure, as the Americans would say.

For what it is worth, I can see Nazdaq going well if conditions are not too testing, and Noubian (who is out of the handicap) going even better if managing to get a run.

* * *

Much has been made of the current form of the Paul Nicholls yard - and with good reason - but rather less of that of Nicky Henderson's. To the end of Tuesday, Nicholls had a win strike-rate of 39.0% in November, as against Henderson's 37.5%, and his horses had beaten 76.2% of their rivals. Henderson's horses had beaten an astonishing 81.5% of their rivals in the same period (fallers etc, but not pulled ups, are ignored for these purposes).

Nicholls' Silverburn is an understandably hot favourite for Saturday's big handicap at Cheltenham ([4.5] on Betfair to back) but I am more interested in the Henderson trio of Jack The Giant ([17.0]), Barbers Shop ([20.0]) and Fleet Street ([28.0]) at combined odds of just under [7.0] to back. I think you'll get a good run for your money, whether you side with one or all of them.

Comments (2)

1. brian | 12 November 2008

   Simon excellent and insightful article once again but my question isnt about horses giving weight in handicaps but about an article you previously wrote on creating your own tissue price. Jack Houghton refers to it in his 23rd July article on the same subject, the link doesnt work. I know its been a while sice you wrote it but i've not long discovered the betfair betting strategy articles (which i think are excellent, long may they continue) and i want to digest as much information as possible on the subject. Any help or pointers in the right direction would be greatly appreciated.

   Brian

2. Simon Rowlands | 12 November 2008

   Hi there Brian. Thanks very much for that.

   The first link below is to the "Ten Golden Rules of Betting" piece which ended as a discussion of ratings into odds in the comments section beneath it.

   What I can say is that I have found the approach I proposed - somewhat off the cuff - surprisingly useful since I posted it and am still looking into its potential applications.

   The second link is to a piece about coming up with provisional ratings for unraced/lightly raced horses. I suspect a bit more allowance needs to be made for trainers than I acknowledged, but the principles still apply (indeed, this general approach has been a cornerstone of rating 2yos at Timeform for many years).

   Clearly, if you have ratings which you are happy with, even for unraced horses, then you can then contemplate translating those ratings into an odds line...

   http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/ten-golden-rules-of-betting-240908.html

   http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/betting-strategy/betting-strategy-simon-rowlands-guide-to-producing-your-081008.html