Betting Strategy: Stable form

Betting Strategy / Robin Keck / 12 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Robin Keck is absorbed in a perpetual quest for the next struggling trainer. Below, he explains why...

Stable form is currently the most under-estimated factor in a horse's starting price. There, I've said it...I feel much better for having got it out but I'll be even happier if nobody agrees. I could reel off some of the Hots (Clive Cox, Peter Makin, and David Barron) and Colds (Keith Reveley, David Barker) or my 'Potential Cold' list (Walter Swinburn) but that's only half the story.

I'm keener on focusing on 'Cold' form as less stable runners tend to run against the grain. There is typically only a short period that cold stable form interests me from a betting point of view and that is the period of under-performance before it either hits the Racing Post 'Cold Trainers' or 'Out of Form' list or has been clearly acknowledged in the market in the difference between the morning forecast price and the SP. As soon as the market appears to me to have fully factored in the lack of stable form I move on in my continual search for the next struggling trainer.

There are, of course, infinite factors that influence the form of the stable. Cold form can reflect a 'bug' in the yard, a period following 'hot' form when horses are less well handicapped or a deliberate strategy on the trainer's behalf to prepare their horses to peak at a different stage of the season. Aidan O'Brien and Marcus Tregoning both appear to deliberately bring their horses along gently and most of their string are opposable before early May. Alternatively, a stable's runners may have been held up in their work at home due to adverse weather - I recall a brief period this year at the end of January when Howard Johnson horses all ran stinkers for around four days apparently due to the heavy snow and many were wonderfully short priced (Door Boy being stuffed at 4/11 was a very obvious lay bet that day).

Whilst all the above have the potential to create serious betting opportunities the 'bug' is my clear favourite and David Pipe's form over the last couple of months up to late April appears to have been a great example of this. He had around eight or nine favourites beaten on the trot with only the occasional horse running to form although Mutual Friend's facile victory at Southwell on Sunday may be a sign of things turning for the better at Pond house.

As a short priced maths led punter, I like to place lay the cold horses at relatively short (nearly always below [2.5] and very often below [2.0]) prices on the basis that if I'm right about the 'bug' the horse will under-perform enough to be beaten convincingly. The most obvious indicator of the poor form is repeated examples of horses travelling well for 60-80% of the race before finding nothing in the finish. If a horse rallies and fights to the line and I still win my lay bet my perception of stable form falls back under review. Just because my bet won doesn't mean I'm right, although if I lose, it probably does indicate I'm wrong.

The other betting strategy I love is to take up serious lay trading positions on horses later in the day from a stable which you suspect has an issue and could be on everyone's 'Cold' list tomorrow. Perhaps the trainer had one or two not finish their races well in yesterday's evening meets but have eight entered today with many trading between [1.3] and [2.5] in the place market. On the assumption that these prices have not adjusted for this downside potential, you have created serious upside if the first one or two runners run poorly. If you're wrong and the first horse from the stable runs well then simply trade out for a very minimal loss on the remaining bets. You have far more upside than downside here although in my experience this happens only every couple of months as you need a major stable with a volume of runners for this to work out.

I'm hoping to do a regular piece on this subject and will keep you posted with my successes and failures.