All-Weather Racing: The beauty of repetition

Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 21 August 2008 / 3 Comments

Wayne Bailey reckons this is the worst summer. Must be time for a discussion of all weather meetings then...

Could this be the worst summer ever?

Even though I've only been around for 27 of the past four billion or so, I'm going to put my neck on the block and say yes - it is the worst summer ever.

Twice this week, I've attempted to write an article about the mouth watering clash between New Approach and Duke of Marmalade - and twice the weather has spoiled it. Unpredictable weather. Mad weather, quite frankly.

With tracks getting washed out left, right and centre - it might be a good time to look at the fairly consistent, but fairly boring all-weather meetings. I can hear a collective sigh, but just hear me out...

At least they usually go ahead as scheduled - although Southwell last year had swans instead of horses. OK, it's hardly as exciting as York or Ascot, but you might just thank me someday when all else has been cancelled and there's nothing to watch but Wolves.

You see, being a good Catholic, I must make confessions now and then. So here's one for today: I'm a closet all-weather fan.

There, I said it. Sure, it's pretty repetitive stuff, the race quality is usually low, and time after time we see the same horses at the same tracks, running for the same poor prize money. But therein lies the beauty - It's pretty easy to follow and learn who's who.

So here are a few pointers I've learned over the years, pointers that have paid a few bills and brightened up many a wet Monday for me in the past:

Race type: I'm pretty happy to get involved with most all-weather races, but tend to shy away from handicaps. The quality of horse on display is generally lower than on turf, and I find that they often improve or deteriorate dramatically, despite the weight the handicapper allots. Therefore, stick with straightforward non-handicaps.

Specialise: If you are trying to find an all weather specialist, ignore horses that had their last couple of runs on turf. Consistency is what we're after here, and that means consistency from the trainer in the races he enters the horse in. If the last two runs were all-weather, note it down.

Recent form: So you've found a horse that's been around on the all-weather a couple of times, but there are quite a few donkeys out there so sort the wheat from the chaff. Be ruthless. If the horse did not win last time out - ditch it. In fact, if it wasn't first or second previous to that win, ditch it even faster. You'll be doing more ditching than Liz Taylor, but keep repeating 'consistency' to yourself and you won't feel too bad.

To be honest, you'll probably only get a one or two horses per meeting, but give such a horse serious attention.

I'm reluctant to publish the results of following horses that match the above criteria as people might thing I'm promoting a system. I'm not however; I'm giving pointers that have helped me along the way. Consider other variables and you may find some very strong bets indeed. But I know I'll be hounded if I don't give figures, so for the record:

• Race is an all-weather non-handicap
• Horse won an all-weather race last time out, and came first or second in an all-weather race previous.
The results of backing the above since 2003 are:
• Bets: 411
• Wins: 135
• Strike Rate: 32.85%
• Profit to £10 stakes: £415
• Place strike rate (inc wins): 55%

There was only one losing year (2006), but as I say, I'm not putting this forward as a system. The above will help find some decent animals, but you should also consider other variables too. View the above as pointers that may prove valuable rather than definitive rules.
What was it that Beamish Irish Stout used to say in their advertisements a few years ago? Ah yes - 'Consistency... in a world gone mad!'

Comments (3)

1. Stu | 26 August 2008

   Hi Wayne,

   You can't quibble with your profit figures. I can't, however, get excited about the all-weather. I tend to have a rule of only betting on class 3 races and above. Unfortunately, there aren't that many of these races in the calendar.

   Stu

2. punterbren | 06 September 2008

   nice write up

3. Wayne Bailey | 03 February 2009

   With all the recent bad weather, it may be worth re-visiting this strategy and it's been working well in 2009 thus far with 8 wins from 21 bets and a profit of £160 to £10 stakes.

   Once again the horses to note are:

   - Race is an all-weather non-handicap
   - Horse won an all-weather race last time out, and came first or second in an all-weather race previous.