Ruby Walsh: A statistical analysis

Throughout the years of National Hunt racing, swathes of jockey performances can lay claim to being the greatest. Truly great back-to-back rides, however, are a deal rarer. 

Since 2007, over jumps there had been only six cases of a jockey's mount in consecutive races trading at 95.094/1 or over in running (see table below) and winning.

Although classifying a ride in the top bracket by in play price alone has its limitations, the double added to this list on the 28th of December was undoubtedly of the highest calibre.

The enigmatic Tidal Bay charged his way to winning the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown with a perfectly-timed run under Ruby Walsh, having traded at 95.094/1 in running. Despite having to cajole his mount through the middle part of the race, Walsh managed to get on terms at the right time and the pair squeezed through seemingly impossible gaps on two occasions.

All this came just over half an hour after the same jockey (in the same silks) managed to defy hitting a high of 150.0149/1 to thrust Back In Focus to victory in the Topaz Novices' Chase.

Arguably the best jump jockey of his generation and, indeed, any span in the sport, Ruby Walsh is the most consistently achieving rider in the 20 years of Timeform ratings. As touched on in a prior piece (click HERE to read), he has topped our seasonal rankings on ten occasions. He has also never been outside the top five since he entered them in the 1998/99 season. 

Fittingly, the aforementioned double was comprised of a winner each for his two main employers, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls. The gentleman's agreement struck with both in 2002 has led to incredible highs in the Irishman's career and it is a reasonable suggestion that his success is largely down to these partnerships. In riding for Mullins and Nicholls, Walsh has prime selection of the talent at two of the most dominant stables in the UK and Ireland.

However, when breaking down our ratings by trainer this argument is challenged. Over the last five years, if Walsh was to be solely judged on rides other than for the pair, he would still be the clear top rated jockey (2nd place being rated + 5.84):

While there is uplift when riding for the two Champion trainers, it is possibly not as substantial as people may believe.

Another fair point to be made is that a significant number of his rides are aboard horses with a high market value. Unsurprisingly, better supported horses are more likely to run to expectation than those weaker in the market. This is usually due to the fact the horse is either in better form or has more favoured conditions in which to run, whether it be trip, ground or grade of race.

However, when isolating performance solely aboard unfancied horses (with a market value below 1), Walsh is still the premier jockey:

In fact, trying to find any statistical chinks in the last five years is a nigh-on impossible task. Only Wayne Hutchinson edging out Walsh in the mid-level market value category represents anything but superiority. This is added to by the fact he is the top-ranked jockey in the separated statistics for bumpers, hurdles and chases.

* The six jockeys above him had ten or less runs which is too small a sample to be statistically significant.

Despite Ruby predominantly riding mid- to high-level rated horses, again he ranks as the number one jockey when riding horses that begin the race with a Timeform rating below 100. Whereas having the bulk of rides at the top end of the market aids a high jockey rating, consistently riding higher rated horses does not. Horses rated over 135 are statistically less likely to perform to expectation. This is largely due to a decreased probability of horse improvement and the increased competition in races at higher levels.

* The three jockeys above him had ten or less runs which is too small a sample to be statistically significant.

The final logical challenge that can be made to his dominance is the profile of horses he rides. Although our ratings do counter the natural progression horses make over the course of their first few runs in a given discipline, there is evidence that it is easier to ensure a horse runs to its level in its first five starts and that over ten starts is the hardest.

Again, despite Walsh plying a significant amount of his trade aboard less experienced horses, when he takes fully exposed mounts he still tops the pile.

It is hardly ground breaking to highlight the proficiency of Ruby Walsh and there are other factors that play a part. But what hopefully is evident in the above analysis is that with a small handful of caveats, Walsh does display statistical dominance across a number of facets.
 
Is he the greatest of this or indeed any generation? That will always be a question for the racecourse bars, forums and TV Studios which numbers alone can never answer due to the intangibles touched on above.

If they were the be all and end all, however, the answer according to our ratings would be an emphatic yes.

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.