Saturday Racing: Paul Nicholls on his runners at Kempton

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The big race is at three o'clock as AP McCoy attempts to ride Fistral Beach to victory in the Racing Post Chase. Paul has plenty of other runners on the card too so there's a lot to mull over...

13:55

Tonic Mellysse

Has only been with us six weeks or so. Joined after winning at Pau in December, beating Tigre D'Aron, who won on his hurdling debut in this country at Wetherby (in fact, the fourth in that Pau race, Aikideau, beaten seven-and-a-half lengths, also runs in this race). Goes nicely at home, but we had to do quite a bit of work with his jumping after he first joined us, as he wasn't that polished. But he schools nicely now, as he has sharpened up well in that area. Still holds entries in the Triumph and Supreme, but let's see how he goes here. (Watch him school in the video preview at the bottom of the article).

Zarkandar

Will probably attract a bit of attention here as he is a half-brother to Zarkava. Won a minor race over 1m4f before being placed in Deauville over 1m6f/1m7f. Was very colty when he first came to us and was hard work at first, but he has become far more tractable and goes really nicely now. I didn't want to run him in a small maiden hurdle, so he takes his chance in this lofty company first time out. Will run ok, but may be next year's horse. (Watch him school in the video preview at the bottom of the article).

14:25

American Trilogy

Won the County Hurdle for us in 2009 but finally came good for us over fences last time when winning readily over course and distance. That was very pleasing after his two falls but this is a step up in class and he would have to improve enormously to trouble the likes of Captain Chris. But he is a capable horse, and hopefully he can go on now he has more confidence. Is entered in the novices' handicap chase at the Festival. We did also have Royal Charm in this race but he is not quite ready; he could go straight to the Festival for the Jewson.

15:00

Fistral Beach

Was the 100-30 favourite for this race last year but only got as far as the second. I don't know if he deserves to head the market this time around but I can tell you that he is a different horse after his summer wind operation (Ruby got off him last year and said, Sort out his breathing) and that showed when he was very impressive in an admittedly minor race at Wincanton on his reappearance. Has only gone up 9lb to 140 after that, and that is what I think remains a winnable mark, and good to soft on this track should be fine. People have mentioned that he jumps slightly left but I don't think that's an issue, and hopefully the trip won't be either if the rain stays away. Clearly has a leading chance in an open, competitive race.

Free World

Finished a fair, if soundly beaten, second to Riverside Theatre here over 2m5f in November (subsequent winners Tatenen and Bakbenscher behind) but was well beaten over 2m last time. So we are taking a shot in the dark running him over 3m, where hopefully the more sedate pace will help him to get into a rhythm. The handicapper has shown him some respite - he races off the same mark as when he ran good placed efforts behind Kalahari King and French Opera last year - but I still think he is too high. So let's see how he gets on over 3m here.

15:35

Toubab

Ran well at this meeting last year when second to Soldatino and was very impressive at Haydock on his reappearance, where he showed very smart form to beat Drill Sergeant eight lengths without coming off the bridle. Before that run he was working the house down - he did one great piece of work with Master Minded - but it's fair to say that he has not repeated that excellence at home since. Don't get me wrong though, he is working well. I shouldn't have run him on heavy ground at Sandown last time and this better ground on a flat track will suit him. Is in the Supreme but it is possible that he could miss Cheltenham and go straight to Aintree.

Empire Levant

Big and weak sort but he has always jumped well since we have had him. Ran well on his hurdling debut at Newbury, where a mistake three out cost him any chance of winning, and he won nicely at Doncaster last month, beating subsequent winner Palawi. This is a horse I really like, very progressive, and I think that he will give a very good account of himself. An Aintree horse, rather than a Cheltenham one. (Watch him school in the video preview at the bottom of the article).

16:10

Mr Hudson

Has what I think is quite a stiff mark off 128, so Ian claims off him. Won his bumper well at Newton Abbot and then beat Madison Du Berlais over 2m6f at Exeter on his hurdling debut, before disappointing us slightly - even though he may have shown slightly improved form - when third over 2m3f at Exeter last time. But it transpired that he had puss in his foot, which was very sore, and it took him a fortnight to get totally over it. Really will make a smashing chaser one day but 2m5f, on a right handed track, on this ground will suit him. Has a definite chance in an obviously very competitive race.

17:15

War Of The World

Was second favourite in the early betting when we pulled him out at Exeter on his intended debut earlier in the month, as the ground was too soft. Is a well-related individual, being a Lost World half-brother to four winners, but is very backward at the moment.

Sleeping Tree

Is a brother to smart staying chaser Sleeping Night, and his pedigree says he will need further than this to shine. Will improve for the experience today.

To find out Paul's three best chances click here.

Watch Paul's video preview for his weekend runners:

Paul Nicholls / 26 Feb 2011