Paul Nicholls: The verdict on all my runners on World Hurdle day at Cheltenham
Weekend Runners
/
Paul Nicholls /
15 March 2012 /
2
Big Buck's will be a short price as he goes for World Hurdle no.4
"Staying has won Big Buck's the day against the likes of Grands Crus last season, and Dynaste this. This is a very good race with the likes of Thousand Stars and Mourad also entering into the mix. But we haven't won 15 races in a row for nothing."
Big Buck's heads up Paul Nicholls' eight strong team on the third day at Cheltenham. Can the great champion win a fourth World Hurdle? Read Paul's thoughts on the wonder horse and all seven others...
13:30, Jewson Novices' Chase
Cristal Bonus
Was favourite for this race until Peddlers Cross was re-routed from the Arkle but this is a horse with the class and form to make his presence felt here, make no mistake. He may not have had the ability to finish second in a Champion but he was a very smart hurdler and has been impressive in his two chase starts, winning by 25 lengths at Chepstow and then beating Duke of Lucca by 13 lengths at Kempton last time, coming home really powerfully. Jumped slightly out to his left at Kempton so going left handed here will suit him too.
While respecting Peddlers Cross and plenty of others in this competitive race such as Sir Des Champs and For Non Stop, I like his chances.
14:05, Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)
Sonofvic
It looked like it was "Sun Alliance, here we come" when he ran Grands Crus to 2 lengths in November but things didn't work out over 2m5f here next time, never jumping or travelling with any fluency and finishing a well-beaten fifth of six. Basically, it was little short of a disaster. But it told us that we needed to take our time with him over fences, so we preserve his novice status and take our chance off a mark of 141 over hurdles. And on his Newbury run behind Grands Crus, he certainly has the raw talent to make his presence felt - and don't forget he was also two from two over hurdles last season, so is unexposed on that front, too. I can see him going well, but I suppose 20 trainers are saying the same in this race.
14:40, Ryanair Chase
Poquelin
Not many horses win handicaps off a mark of 170 but Poquelin did here last April and he absolutely loves this course. But, if truth be told, he has fallen short when stepping up from carrying big weights against lesser animals in handicaps to meeting similar opposition off levels. And that includes in this race last season, when over 7 lengths behind Albertas Run having gone off the 2-1 favourite (also finished second to the same horse in this race in 2010) and this year's renewal looks even more competitive.
But I am very happy with him coming into this race - he came home a sick horse from here in November - and there was certainly much to like in his second to The Giant Bolster off a mark of 168 last time.
As I said before, this race has incredible strength in depth this year, but he is a 16-1 chance now and not 2-1, and that is probably not the worst of bets for a horse of his proven class and love for the course.
15:20, World Hurdle
Big Buck's
Am I worried that he will finally be beaten today? The honest answer is yes! I will be mightily disappointed, of course, but defeat comes to every horse in the end. But on the all available evidence if we run to form, then it will take the best staying hurdler we have seen for 30 or 40 years to beat him, and I honestly don't see a horse of that potential in this field. Yes, Oscar Whisky is the one that everyone is talking up as our main rival and he has looked impressive this season, and showed what a classy horse he was when finishing third in the Champion Hurdle last season.
But we will find out today whether he stays this trip. And he will have to stay every yard of it to win, because I know that we do. Staying has won us the day against the likes of Grands Crus last season, and Dynaste this. This is a very good race with the likes of Thousand Stars and Mourad also entering into the mix. But we haven't won 15 races in a row for nothing.
Five Dream
Has rediscovered his zest for racing since we put him back over hurdles and he gained some valuable prize money when chasing home Big Buck's at Newbury and Ascot but he found life much harder when last of six in the Cleeve Hurdle last time. Has his work cut out in this far stronger field.
King Of The Night
Confirmed himself a fast-progressing horse with two handicap wins in October, including a 5 length win off a mark of 143 over 2m5f at Kempton, but clearly didn't run up to form when tailed off behind Overturn at Ascot in November. We have given him a break since then as he goes so well when fresh. Has won here and the ground will suit, but he is trying this trip for the first time and obviously needs a career-best effort to make the frame. Stranger things have happened though - I hear Anthony Bromley bought someone a drink at our Cheltenham Festival quiz night on Monday.
16:00, Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase)
Rebel Du Maquis
Won over course and distance last season and surprised me when able to win a Stratford handicap off a mark of 142 in May, and by 11 lengths too. I think that run flatters him greatly and that was underlined when he could only finish ninth in the Galway Plate in July off 153. He hasn't raced since but the handicapper has dropped him 3lb in the meantime, and track, trip and ground should be fine for him here.
Crack Away Jack
Obviously was a high-class hurdler when with Emma Lavelle, and was sent off favourite on his first start for me off a mark of 142 here over fences in November. And was travelling really well until a momentum-stopping mistake 3 out effectively put paid to his chances there. He sustained a very bad cut that day, which necessitated over two months rest and healing time, so he would have been in need of the run over hurdles at Ascot last time. If he retains anywhere near the ability that saw him finish fourth in the 2009 Champion Hurdle - or, indeed, a second to Somersby in the Henry VIII Chase that year or his fourth in the Desert Orchid - and jumps fluently here, then he clearly has a good chance. But he has had his share of setbacks and problems in the past two years, and I am slightly surprised that he is one of the favourites in the betting.
Don't get me wrong though, he can win if things fall for right for him, and I have done an awful lot of schooling with him recently. And for the first time since I have had him, I feel I have got him right.
R DOWNEY | 15 March 2012
ARE YOU SURE YOU KNOW HOW YOUR HORSES ARE? OR ARE YOU BLUFING ,THERE ARE TOO MANY GROSLEY UNDER PERFORMING
Anonymous | 15 March 2012
paul whats going on a lot of yours are running absolute stinkers pulled up miles behind at least big bucks showed true class today what a legend heres to kauto doing the same. But what about the rest paul like i said what is going on?