Paul Nicholls' Weekend Runners: The Timeform Preview

It's the last weekend before Cheltenham and things are understandably quieter than usual, but there's still good racing at Sandown, while Paul also has runners at Chepstow and Warwick. Timeform give the ratings viewpoint on all his horses due to run this weekend...

Paul is doubly represented in what looks a typically competitive renewal of the EBF Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final (13:55) with The Reformer and San Remo Bello.

Of that pair, The Reformer, who is the mount of Ruby Walsh, is seemingly the more interesting, and he comes out top on Timeform ratings, 3 lb clear of his closest rival. The official handicapper looks to have taken a chance with The Reformer's mark of 128 judged on the form he showed when third in a hot-looking novice hurdle at Kempton last time and it would be no surprise to see him go very well in a first-time tongue tie, for all there are plenty of likely improvers in the field. Quite unlike The Reformer, the handicapper has apparently given San Remo Bello a very stiff mark judged on his two efforts in Britain, and the Timeform ratings suggest he has an awful lot of improvement to find if he is to make an impact.

There are also a pair of Ditcheat runners in the three-mile handicap chase which follows at 14:25. The more interesting of them is the ex-French gelding Mon Parrain, who is having his first start for the yard having left Guillaume Macaire since last seen at Auteuil in June. Mon Parrain was prolific in France, showing useful form in winning five times in 2009/10. He raced up to two-and-a-half miles in France, so the step up in trip at Sandown is something of an unknown, but a mark of 133 looks fair based on the pick of his French form and he is certainly a fascinating contender starting out in Britain with Ruby Walsh in the plate.

Ian Popham takes the ride on Five Dream, who is having his first outing since putting up a rare below-par effort at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. He had run well when runner-up on his two starts prior to that, but his consistency has afforded him little in the way of respite from the handicapper. He isn't sure to stay three miles, but the new trip should at least put a bit less pressure on his jumping, which isn't always the most fluent.

Paul has never won the Imperial Cup and it's probably fair to say that he only has outside claims of rectifying that with Tito Bustillo in this year's renewal at 15:00.

Tito Bustillo won three novice hurdles last season and the handicapper didn't do him too many favours in allotting him an opening handicap mark of 139. He didn't get the chance to test that point either way when not getting the best of luck in the County Hurdle and then the Scottish equivalent on his final two outings in 2009/10, but has run well on both starts this year without really doing anything to dispel the notion that he could do with dropping a few pounds in the weights. Two miles is definitely his trip (indeed, he may not want so stiff a test as Sandown provides at the distance) and the return of Ruby to the saddle for the first time since late-2009 is a positive, but essentially there are plenty of others in the Imperial Cup field with more obvious chances at the weights.

Paul's other runners on Saturday are all at Chepstow, where he has two in the three-mile maiden hurdle at 15:10 in the shape of Harry The Viking and Oscargo. Both have run in points, and it's Harry The Viking who has the more auspicious record in that sphere, having won one in January this year. Oscargo, on the other hand, unseated in a point in May 2010, though he does have a good jumping pedigree as a brother to the useful Irish chaer Dosco. Presumably the betting market will provide the best guide to their respective chances in a race that probably won't take a whole lot of winning.

The yard's penultimate runner of the day is Aldertune, who goes in the three-mile beginners' chase which follows at 15:45. Aldertune was a fairly useful hurdler last season, but did end that year with a few questions lingering over his temperament, and there were some more signs that he might be a bit of a thinker in his chasing debut at Hereford back in January. Having said that, he plainly has the ability to win races over fences, and neither of his main form rivals tomorrow, namely Voramar Two and Wendel, are entirely solid either.

The final Saturday runner is the Round Tom in Chepstow's three-mile handicap hurdle at 16:45, and he fits the theme that you may notice beginning to emerge in that we feel the official assessor has been rather unkind with regard to his handicap mark. An initial mark of 115 certainly looked harsh enough based on what he did in novices, and with that in mind he ran pretty respectably when fourth on his handicap debut at Taunton last week. There's a possibility he might have needed the run that day and he's now down on 112. Saturday's race isn't necessarily chock-full of improvers, but Round Tom needs to better anything he's shown to date to play a major role.

There's only one Ditcheat runner on Sunday, but it's no forlorn hope that it'll be a winner in the shape of Hawkes Point in the 25-furlong novice hurdle at Warwick (15:05). Hawkes Point is a brother to Alfie Sherrin, who progressed into a smart hurdler for the yard last season, and he's very promising in his own right having pulled clear with two useful sorts on his hurdling debut at Ludlow last month. It's probable that his long-term future lies over fences, but he's well up to winning a novice hurdle first and he should prove capable of serving up to standard-setter Wistow at Warwick

Get the Timeform Jury's selections for all of Saturday's Channel 4 races with Timeform TV Focus. Click HERE to find out more.

Timeform / 11 Mar 2011