Weekend Runners / Dan Barber / 01 February 2011 / 1

Another week, another host of winning chances for Paul Nicholls, starting at Taunton this afternoon.

Paul has already discussed his hopes for his three runners at Taunton in his own column, and the Timeform view on the trio doesn't differ too much.

Qozak (14:20) has indeed performed below expectations as a chaser based on his level of form over hurdles, though there's still time for him to put the record straight and he does have a 100% strike-rate at Taunton to call upon, including a deeply impressive handicap hurdle win last season. He's got work to do to reverse his latest Warwick form with Keki Buku, while Ranjobaie and Tasheba will be tough nuts to crack as well, but Qozak certainly has the ability to go close provided he sees things out more thoroughly.

Rock of Deaville (14:50) is also in the infancy of his career in one of the jumps disciplines, in his case over timber on the back of his hurdling debut third in a Hereford juvenile in November. As Paul mentions in his piece, the prospect of less testing ground should be in Rock of Deauville's favour, and it would be no shock to see him show more like the form that saw him win two of his three starts on the Flat in France.

Nicholls' final runner at Taunton comes in the shape of Teshali, who contests the seventeen-furlong handicap at 15:50. It's a hot race, with the well-backed Tenor Nivernais one of several who hold claims, and there's no little guesswork involved in assessing Teshali's chance; on one hand he's potentially thrown-in judged on Flat form, on the other he's found little in three starts over timber to date. Either way, he's well worth a market check with a tongue tie on for the first time.

The next port of call for Nicholls is Wincanton on Thursday. Typically, Nicholls has a strong hand at the track, with no fewer than eight entries at the time of writing, starting with Violin Davis, who has only a few ahead of her on Timeform ratings in the mares' novice hurdle that opens the card. What's more, Violin Davis may well be able to improve further, given she's run only twice over hurdles and promises to be suited by the step up in distance.

Hopes will probably be high as well for Pepe Simo in the two-mile novices' handicap chase at 14:50. Granted, potential rivals Osric, Cadoudalas and Clouseau are all improving fast, but Pepe Simo very much shaped as if he's coming to terms with chasing when pulling clear with Cheltenham Festival hope Nadiya de La Vega in a novice at Kempton last time and has been given a chance by the assessor off 143 judged on that effort.

Dark Lover misses an engagement at Taunton this afternoon, though whether he runs in the novice at Wincanton on Wednesday or the one at Chepstow the day after remains to be seen, with the latter option probably more likely given Nicholls is set to saddle potentially useful French recruit Polisky in the former. Both are sure to win races over hurdles, though it's Polisky who particularly appeals as a likely winner this week, having finished a spot ahead of the stable's wide-margin Newbury winner Cedre Bleu when the pair filled the places behind Prince Pretender in a listed maiden hurdle at Auteuil during the autumn.

Polisky will be hard to beat if able to reproduce that form at Wincanton, but confidence in Shacklesborough winning the staying handicap chase on the card can't be anything like so strong. On the plus side, he is unexposed after only four starts outside points, but the fact is he'll need to leave his chasing debut seventh at Taunton well behind to take this.

The bumper that closes the card features two possibles, namely St Blazey and Mousenikov, both of whom also hold entries later in the week at Chepstow. It's not clear as to whether they'll be kept apart this week, but, that aside, St Blazey makes far more appeal on paper than Mousenikov, given he's a brother to the same connections' high-class chaser Thisthatandtother and a half-brother to the Roach's enigmatic but talented jumper The Tother One.

And if none of the unexposed types hit the mark at Wincanton, Nicholls can always call upon Ornais, who could well bid to maintain the stable's tremendous record in hunter chases. Halcon Genelardais sets the standard, but Ornais was hardly a slouch at his peak under Rules, at one stage rated as high as 148 on Timeform figures.

Chepstow on Friday signals the end of Nicholls' pre-weekend team. As well as the two aforementioned bumper entries, Paul has three engaged in the three-mile novice hurdle at 14:05, namely Join Together, Prince Tom and Hawkes Point. The last-named is a brother to smart hurdler/promising chaser Alfie Sherrin, though it's the other two who are worthy of most attention - Join Together has shaped well in finishing placed on both starts over hurdles (second in course-and-distance Grade 2 last time), while Prince Tom improved again when landing a handicap at Taunton when last seen in November.

But his most likely winner of the week is surely Al Ferof, who is clear Timeform top-rated in the opening novice at the Welsh track and, provided he takes his chance, should make short work of his rivals en route to returning to graded company, probably at the Cheltenham Festival.

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1. paul | 01 February 2011

   checked timeform view with paul nicholls view,about his runners at taunton-was impressed,very accurate,i might try to get involved later in the week from a punting angle (just a watching brief today,to see what information was like for taunton meeting).i need some winners after a not so good last couple of weeks.hope paul nicholls talksabout his runners at wincanton and chepstow on thur and fri,check back later-thanks.

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