Paul Nicholls: The lowdown on my runners at Chepstow today

Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 25 October 2011 / 5

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Which of Ditcheat's finest will be your fancy today?

"Chasing will probably be Express Leader's game but the handicapper has given him a chance off 114 here and it helps that his main market rival My Brother Sylvest has been withdrawn this morning. Will go well."

Six horses go to post for Paul at Chepstow today - read his exclusive thoughts on all of them here

14:10, 2m Novice Hurdle
Prospect Wells: My first runner for Andrea and Graham Wylie, and it is very exciting to have them in the yard. This horse mixed it in Group 1 company over middle distances in France after winning a 1m2f Group event at Saint Cloud, and made a winning Flat debut for Howard Johnson at Pontefract in June last year. Has evidently had plenty of problems since though, and reportedly they had problems getting him to jump last season. Wasn't easy to start with when he arrived here but has now jumped at least 200 obstacles. But you have to say that he isn't necessarily a natural and will definitely improve for the experience and we have to hope he takes to it on the course. Nevertheless, he clearly is a very smart horse - indeed I wouldn't have had many higher-rated Flat horses in the yard - if we can get him back on track.

14:40, 2m Novice Hurdle
Grandioso: Beat a fair sort in Pyjama Game on his racecourse debut in a good ground Musselburgh bumper, after which he was pitched in at the deep end at Aintree. Ran a fair race when an 18 length ninth of 20 at 50-1, and clearly has ability. Has schooled well in preparation for this and, although meeting plenty of unexposed rivals, hopefully he will run a big race.

15:10, 3m Handicap Hurdle
Ramses De Marcigny: Decent bumper performer who beat two subsequent winners when scoring at Newton Abbot in May, before disappointing over the same course and distance in a handicap 11 days later. His future probably lies over fences but hopefully the break will have done him good and the handicapper has dropped him 2lb. Has an each way chance against the favourite Well Hello There if he stays.

15:40, 3m Novice Chase
Red Harbour: Smart bumper and hurdler on his day and looked set to make a winning debut over fences at Haydock in May, before appearing to pull himself up and getting collared close home. Made hard work of winning at odds of 4-9 in a three runner race at Fontwell last time - his main market rival fell and the other made a mistake at the last - but he is better than that. Let's hope he shows it here but after this run he is eligible to run in handicaps, where he will be seen to better effect.

16:10, 2m4f Handicap Hurdle
Express Leader: Lightly-raced 8yo and picked up an injury after winning a maiden hurdle at Newton Abbot in May last year. Chasing will probably be his game but the handicapper has given him a chance off 114 here and it helps that his main market rival My Brother Sylvest has been withdrawn this morning. Will go well.

17:40, 2m NHF
Bold Chief: Has won three of his six starts in points, finishing runner-up on the other three occasions. As we saw here at Chepstow on Saturday, you never truly know the merit of the horses from this sphere until they race under Rules. But there look to be some interesting horses up against him here and I'd be happy with a place before he goes over obstacles.

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paul | 25 October 2011

nicholls needs to change Noel Fiely for D. Jacob.After watching him ride today at chepstow,he in my opinion is not up to the job if Walsh stays in Ire.The big stables have Mccoy and Geraghty and Jacob is not in that league.I watched his ride on express leader and he was to indecisive,he should have sent the horse on earlier in the 2 1/2 mile hdl (the horse has won a pt-pt over 3 miles) instead he let it develop into a last furlong sprint to the line which he lost because he thought he was going to win easily and did not see the horse on the far side.Useless !
andy s | 26 October 2011

paul, youre clearly pocket talking. the horse was off for over a year and a half and nicholls horses need the run. the horses record speeks for itself, but i bet you never even looked at the form.

jockeys invariably get the flack when stables horses arent running well / need the run. the few horses ruby has ridden who were having their first run of the season such as escortmen have travelled well and found nothing also.

you like noel fehily? i wonder why? because when he was riding for paul the horses were red hot and winning everything. if he was riding for him now hed get exactly the same results as ruby and daryl.

this game is not for you if youre blaming jacob for nicholls horses not getting home
paul | 26 October 2011

andy you obviously do not follow horse racing as merticulous as myself.
1 express leader has won first time out-(nicholls can get a horse ready to win first time out if he wants-TATANIANO last week at chepstow (won by 8L easily ).
2 express leader was backed from 5-1 to 9/4 fav (another indication to say it was fit enough to win first time out)
3 it was the fastest horse in the race on NICK MORDIN speed figures (weekender guru and top speed figure expert in racing ).
4 D. Jacob is not as good as N. Fiely even though he has the best rides in N.H. racing.
5 anything else !
Anonymous | 27 October 2011

1. express leader has won first time out because nicholls horses are generally ready to go. he says HIMSELF this year that many need the run. tataniano was trained to run in 2 and a half mile races but the plan changed at the last minute. therefore its no wonder he saw out the 2 miles without any issues

2. he went from 5/1 to 9/4 because of the pipe horse being a non runner. the pipe horse was a strong favourite. i dont suppose you understand reduction factors if you think he was backed from 5/1 to 9/4!

3. nick mordin doesnt know how fast he is. paul nicholls doesnt even know if he is or isnt faster than drumbaloo, watch from the second last and youll clearly see drumbaloo quickened much better and won EASILY

4. if you cant spell fehily its no wonder you think you know more than nicholls who employs him because of how good he is. if nicholls thought fehily was better hed have made fehily 2nd jock.
paul | 28 October 2011

In my opinion express leader would have won if D. Jacob sent him on alot earlier when he was tanking along,he has won a point to point over 3 miles so he is a stayer and would not want a slowly run race and sprint finish of over 1 1/2 furlongs in a 2 mile 4 furlong race.He was only beaten about 3 lenghs because drumbaloo had a better turn of foot in a slow run race.