Paul Nicholls: The lowdon on my Wincanton runners

Paul has five horses in action at Wincanton on Boxing Day, including some that are starting to improve and others that will gain valuable experience from competing in strong fields...

13:40 Wincanton
Indian Daudaie
Ran some really good races in defeat last season, but I thought I had a different horse on my hands before his reappearance at Haydock last month, as he had strengthened up so much over the summer and had been going really well at home. But he was very disappointing over 2m4f there and again didn't look the paciest when fourth over the same trip on his chasing debut at Plumpton, though that was a satisfactory run. So although the handicapper has hardly been generous with him (he has only dropped 1lb from Haydock), we put him back over hurdles in this Pertemps qualifier and hope the longer trip on soft ground will see him in a better light. James, who rode him so well to finish fourth at the Festival, takes a handy 7lb off.

Deireadhe Re
Won a decent race at Worcester in June before bumping into a decent subsequent winner at Ascot last month, where the pair pulled 24 lengths clear of the third. Was obviously booked for second before Sea Of Thunder fell at the last in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, but he still showed a decent level of form in beating the progressive Rev It Up by three-and-a-quarter lengths there. His mark of 133 is no more than fair and he faces more testing conditions here, but I think this is a fair horse. Harry takes 7lb off, so the horse will only carry 9st 7lb in the race.

14:50 Wincanton
Earth Planet
Has been on the go since September 1 (after winning in June) and I keep on saying that we will give him a break. But he keeps on running well and shows no sign that he needs a rest at home, so here he is. He is basically handicapped up to his best and may not be the strongest in the finish, but he ran a nice race when third to Battlecry at Newbury last time. Has been running on better ground than this lately, but has form on soft ground. Will probably run his race and has an each way chance, but I doubt whether he will be good enough to win, as there will be better treated horses in the race.

15:20 Wincanton
Rangitoto
Came to us as a winner of his sole Irish point and a big reputation. I have said before that I don't care much for reputations - in fact, I pretty much ignore them - but even so he did disappoint me in his first two starts last season before getting off the mark over 2m4f in the soft at Chepstow. He strengthened up considerably in the summer, and improved for a breathing op, and chasing has clearly always been the plan, but I couldn't let a hurdle mark of just 119 go untested so we took him to Cheltenham and he ran out a well-backed winner over this trip. We had the option of staying over hurdles as he only went up 7lb for that win, but we stick to our original plan and send him chasing here. This race cut up a bit at the overnight stage, we like our horse and he has been working and schooling really well in preparation for this (jumped great on Friday morning). Looks to have Trenchant to beat.

15:50 Wincanton
Subtle Sovereign
We had our third bumper winner of the season when Vrai Vert won by ten lengths on his debut under Rules (he was placed in a point) at Hereford on Thursday, so more of the same would be acceptable here! But, seriously, the usual rules apply to all our bumper newcomers, especially those who are unraced in any sphere like Subtle Sovereign. This Flat-bred performer (by Group 1 middle distance winner Subtle Power, sire of Lie Forrit) was bought by 24,000gns in May by Richard Barber.
Has done everything nicely enough at home and could surprise us, but it may be asking too much of him to be winning here as this looks a decent bumper with the likes of Kilrye, with fair form already in the book, in opposition. The withdrawal of Decimus on Christmas Eve did remove a big rival, though.

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Paul Nicholls / 26 Dec 2011