Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 05 November 2011 / 2

With a bumper batch of Ditcheat runners in action, Paul discusses his chances of success at Wincanton on Saturday. Look out for a hot contest involving Celestial Halo...

12:35 Wincanton

Balding Banker

Showed smart form in bumpers last season, notably when winning by ten lengths at Newbury, and he clearly didn't give his true running at the same track on soft ground on his final start, when he stopped quickly after travelling well. But hopefully those issues have been addressed. We think we have got him back on track at home, he jumps and works well, and is a nice prospect. Did a great piece of work with Celestial Halo on Thursday. However, he clearly has his work cut out against Molotof, whose second to Zarkandar at Kempton makes him the clear form choice here.

13:10 Wincanton

That'lldoboy

I think he has races in him off his current mark of 106 and I was very happy with his comeback fourth at Chepstow. He will hopefully come on for that and run a big race here, albeit in a clearly competitive handicap. A point winner - Ryan rode him for that, so rides him here - who has plenty of chasers in his family.

13:45 Wincanton

Violin Davis

I was slightly disappointed at the time when she finished third on her final start at Cheltenham last season but that form looks a lot better now, given that the winner Veiled went on to win two good class staying Flat handicaps and the runner-up, Alasi, won at Wetherby last week. So I think we have definite prospects off a 3lb lower mark here, returning to the scene of her course and distance win in March. Ryan takes 3lb off and she will go well.

14:15 Wincanton

Silviniaco Conti

Everyone knows how this horse surprised me last season, progressing from a Bangor win to putting up a tremendously impressive performance to beat Karabak and Restless Harry so decisively at Ascot last November. And he delighted me when a four-and-a-half length third to Cue Card and subsequernt winner Michael Flips first time out over fences at Chepstow. I was happy with his jumping and he would not have been spot on at all there; he will be sharper here and this race has always been his early season target. He reminds me of Ghizao, who needed his first chase start before winning a Grade 2 by ten lengths next time up. Although he faces some smart opposition here, he is the one to beat and I also think he is slightly better going right-handed, too.

14:45 Wincanton

Celestial Halo

It feels like Celestial Halo has been in the yard for ages but don't forget he is only still seven with plenty of life in him yet, and hopefully a summer breathing operation will see him perform as well as ever. He may have disappointed at Aintree last time but his earlier form showed that the fire of his Champion Hurdle second remains. He's a horse that goes well when fresh and loves it around here too, winning this race by 10 lengths in 2009 and only a mistake at the last cost him victory when beaten a nose by Mille Chief in the Kingwell. With Grandouet in the race and getting 10lb off us, this should be a cracking contest, and I am looking forward to seeing how much difference the breathing operation makes - we saw once again with Brampour what a difference it can make.

15:20 Wincanton

The Minack

He's a horse I have always liked and that I think is capable of winning races off his current handicap mark. Things didn't work out after wins here and at Warwick last season, doing well to finish so close at Ascot after a serious blunder, and then not staying in the Scottish National. Although he has winning form on good to soft ground, he prefers it testing so the recent rain has been a godsend for him. But is a horse who I retain a lot of faith in; any more rain would increase his claims and I think he has an outstanding chance.

Meanus Dandy

Good ground and a trip are key to this horse. Showed he can go well fresh when winning at Sandown last year and went on to win this race by three-and-a-half lengths. The handicapper raised him 12lb for that success and has taken his time in bringing him down, but he races off just a 6lb higher mark from last season and David Prichard takes 7lb off. But his chances diminish with every drop of rain.

15:55 Wincanton

Suerte Al Salto

Is related to the likes of Golden Freeze, Danny Harrold and Sparky Gale, and he was showing us some promise at home last spring before we backed off him because of the firm ground. Has continued to please us in his work, and hopefully he can display that kind of dash on the track. But all my bumper horses need the experience, as I don't prime them for their first start.

Best Chance:

My three best chances this weekend are:

Silvinianco Conti (best chance)
The Minack
Kauto Stone

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To bet on Paul's Down Royal double click here.

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1. Mark | 05 November 2011

   Time to lay Silviniaco Conti. Can we make it four from four weeks.... I think we can...

2. fabian | 06 November 2011

   Félicitations Paul pour vos 5 victoires à Wincanton ce jour + la belle performance de Pacha Du Polder et de Kauto Stone.
   Fantastique journée et je vous souhaite d'encore en gagner beaucoup!

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