Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 29 October 2011 / 7

Paul Nicholls gives us his exclusive views on today's runners at Wetherby and Ascot

Wetherby

13.40 Wetherby
Round Tom
Thorough stayer who ran well when second in a Cheltenham novice hurdle last time. Reverts to the larger obstacles, over which he won a three runner Beginners' Chase at Worcester in July. In form and should go nicely in this company, though he admittedly has something to find on the ratings with some of these.

14.45 Wetherby
What a Friend
Has been called a few names in the past but I call him a dual Grade 1 winner who ran a superb race when an 11 length 4th to Long Run in the Gold Cup. After that, I made a mistake in turning him out again in the Grand National to try and exploit a favourable handicap mark. So this is an ideal starting point for him, with his main seasonal targets being Cheltenham again and the Punchestown Gold Cup. Hasn't run over hurdles since being pulled up in the 2008 Albert Bartlett but he certainly has the class to make his presence felt in this sphere, especially getting weight all round. We will continue to run him in blinkers and he is in great form at home. I must stress that he runs here because I think it will be good for him mentally, instead of running in a competitive chase like the Charlie Hall, to get the National out of his system. But I've got a sneaking feeling that he could just run a blinder.

15.20 Wetherby
Poquelin
Put up a great weight carrying performance when giving Great Endeavour 21lb and a length beating at Cheltenham in December and rounded off the season with another victory, off a 7lb higher mark, over course and distance in April. Sandwiched in between those wins, I have to say he was slightly disappointing in only finishing fourth in the Ryanair. But I feel that he is a horse capable of making his mark in the better 3m+ chases on good ground this season, so let us see how he gets on here. I'm happy with him and he goes best when fresh. But there is clearly a stamina doubt at his first attempt over the trip. If he does stay, then I can see him being an each-way possible for the Gold Cup; he is a high class horse.

Ascot
13:55 Ascot
Merehead
I think it would be fair to say that he hasn't progressed as much as we thought he may after finishing second to Kid Cassidy in a Newbury bumper on his debut but he ran some fair defeats in maiden and novice hurdles all the same and is very much a staying chaser in the making. But he is only a 5yo with time on his side, so we will see on that score. He is a horse I like, has been going nicely and is not that harshly handicapped off a mark of just 115. Will eventually need a trip.

14:30 Ascot
Takeroc
Hasn't always run to his best when running races close to each other. But he has to take his chance here before the handicapper gets a hold of him after an impressive 12 length win at Aintree on Sunday, and he carries just a 6lb penalty. Looks to have come out of the race well and conditions should suit, as long as the rain holds off. Harry is riding well and takes 7lb off.

15.00 Ascot
Brampour
Impressed when winning by 13 lengths at Taunton in February and ran a solid race when an 11 length 9th to Zarkandar in the Triumph Hurdle before disappointing at Aintree. I don't think we saw the best of this decent French Flat middle distance performer last season and he may want further in time but I like this horse. Is one of the ones that had a breathing operation in July, and may improve for the run because of that - plenty who have the op need their first runs. He has done well physically, though.

15.40 Ascot
Niche Market
Hasn't won since taking the 2009 Irish Grand National but he certainly lost none of his sparkle, as he showed when fifth in the Hennessy and at Aintree last season. Obviously, the National is his target again and he will go for the Becher Chase after this. I am very happy with him but I often find a lot of horses that have run at Aintree need a run or two to get them back on track. Ryan takes 3lb off.

Promising Anshan
Ran well when second to Cornish Sett at Wincanton (was 11 lengths back to the third) and finally got his head in front when winning at odds of 2-11 at Fakenham in February. I think he is on a fair mark on 130 and he takes his chance in this valuable and competitive handicap, where conditions should suit. Has a nice racing weight on 10st 3lb, but probably has to improve on what he has shown so far. Loves going right-handed on good ground.

17.25 Ascot
Provo
By Presenting out of a Fontwell bumper winner, he is a big chasing type from the family of Our Ben. As usual with bumper newcomers, we will know more after their first run.

My best chance
As I have said in one of my earlier articles, at this stage of the season, it is best to tread cautiously with full fitness very much an unknown. But if forced to choose, I think (click here to find out) could be my best chance of the day.

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1. Dessie | 29 October 2011

   Poquelin a Gold Cup outsider?

   Sorry but his jumping is way below what's required let alone his engine.

   As for today, I can't seeing him winning this if they ran the race 100 times over.

   Sorry but absolutely no chance of winning. Time to lay lay lay....
   

2. Ciara | 29 October 2011

   Really cannot believe your tipping up Poquelin as your best bet.... You must know something the formbook doesn't.....

3. stanley peters | 30 October 2011

   Paul's column is hardly worth reading any more, he doesn't seem to know his horses. His best bets of Poquelan and the previous week Master Minded did not go close. His write up for the two winners at Ascot, Merehead and brampour, was not very positive

4. paul | 30 October 2011

   Betfair have given us punters an option recruiting the excellent Donald Mccain.He gave 2 winners in his article for sunday,switch to him ,leave nicholls alone as you will lose a fortune following the wrong horses he gives !.

5. Seamus | 30 October 2011

   Its still october not march and both 1st and 2nd have shown best form last 3months of year rembember all the talk of these horses last year come march where were they? Dont worry paul ruby done the right thing and gave the horse an easy ride first time over 3miles and i know in ur capable hands come march this horse will show his true ability.

6. nick | 31 October 2011

   harry derham well worth his 7lb claim

7. Stephen Kennelly | 02 November 2011

   I believe Seamus gives makes the most pertinent points. It's not March.

   I'm sure Paul is disappointed with Poquelin & Ghizao's performances but training isn't an exact science. Much like Brampour, I don't think anyone could say with confidence that horse was going to accelerate to the finish like he did on Saturday compared to what he's shown before.

   I've backed some of Paul's best chances and avoided others for a variety of reasons. Paul's not a punter, he's a trainer. His best chances seemed to go alright in the first two weeks for everyone.

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