Paul Nicholls: My Saturday runners at Cheltenham

Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 28 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Big Buck's storms to victory at Cheltenham last year

"Timeform squiggle or not, Tidal Bay is a top-notcher on his day and it wouldn’t surprise me were he to come out and beat some of the young pretenders here."

Paul discusses his Saturday runners at Prestbury Park, including a stunning Big Buck's and one or two that are capable of causing a surprise....

12:55

Pearl Swan

This is clearly the hottest juvenile race of the season so far, but at least it will tell us where we stand with our horse and whether we go down the Triumph or Fred Winter route at Cheltenham. In truth, we didn't really know what to expect at Taunton last week. Yes, he had been showing us plenty at home - including in his work with Zarkandar - but we have had plenty of morning glories at Ditcheat down the years and we half felt that he may have gone to the races a gallop short as we hadn't had him that long. And he was meeting a fair sort in Ifyouletmefinish too, albeit that was a horse from whom we were receiving 11lb because of the 4yo allowance. But Pearl Swan certainly delivered on the track, winning by four lengths, really picking up and quickening from two out like a good horse. He steps up massively in class here but let's hope he can prove to be another Zarkandar for Mr Geffen, who has bought him privately since Taunton. But he clearly needs to step up massively to even get competitive against the likes of Baby Mix and Grumeti here.

13:30

That'lldoboy

Has improved considerably since his reappearance effort at Chepstow, winning at Wincanton and Newbury and then running an excellent race in defeat over this course and distance. He was by no means beaten when falling two out at Kempton last time, only three lengths behind in second and staying on, and the winner Our Mick certainly did the form no harm whatsoever when winning a Grade 2 race at Haydock last Saturday by 13 lengths. He has shown no indication at home that the fall has left its mark, and even I would have to admit that he looks reasonably handicapped on what he would probably have achieved at Kempton had he stood up, having been raised just 2lb. Let us hope the handicapper is wrong for once!

14:05

Poquelin

Clearly, didn't run his race in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and although he was in the process of running a fair race when unseating his rider in the Paddy Power last time, I would ignore that run too, because he came home a sick horse. In fact, he was on the easy list for over a month, so I think he will need this. That said, because we were struggling to get him fit, we gave him a racecourse gallop over 2m last week, so that would have helped blow away the cobwebs. And, even though the handicapper has dropped him 2lb, he would arguably need to be at his peak to have a chance of winning this off 168 and I am clearly not confident that he is. But he is a never a horse to totally write off at his beloved Cheltenham and, at the very least, hopefully this will put him right for the Festival, where his options include the Ryanair and the Gold Cup. Harry takes 7lb off.

Woolcombe Folly

Started at 7-1 for last season's Champion Chase after putting up a superb effort to give Tanks For That 19lb and a six length beating over 2m here, but disappointed at the Festival and didn't cover himself in glory when a 16 lengths second to Gauvain in November, where he didn't seem overly keen. But it could be that he needs a trip these days, so we step him up to 2m5f and hope the more sedate pace will suit him. He is a very difficult horse to place off his handicap mark but at least he has been dropped 4lb since his last run and decent ground will suit. So let's hope that the rain stays away for him.

Aerial

Had a breathing op in the summer and reappeared to run a decent enough race when a 15 length fourth to Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power. But that was off a mark of 144 (he was 4lb out of the handicap there) and he is asked to race off 152 here. The reason being that he came out and beat Giorgio Quercus by ten lengths at Ascot last month, for which he was raised 9lb, and unfortunately the runner-up came out and won by 17 lengths last Saturday and the handicapper upped us another 3lb while he was stood in his box. I have my suspicions about the Ascot form - the race seemed to fall apart somewhat - but at least we have an improving horse on our hands. Conditions will suit.

14:35

Tidal Bay

His quirkiness and awkward head carriage were there for all to see on his debut for me at Cheltenham on New Year's Day, but I was very pleased with his third in the handicap hurdle off a mark of 160. We now throw him back into top class chase company, and that will tell us where we go with him - he is in the Gold Cup and the World Hurdle at Cheltenham. Timeform squiggle or not, this horse is a top-notcher on his day - as he showed when finishing second to Imperial Commander in the 2010 Betfair Chase, and to a lesser extent when chasing home Neptune Collonges in this race last year - and it wouldn't surprise me were he to come out and beat some of the young pretenders here.

Our job is to try and get his final finishing spurt started a bit earlier today; he also did remarkably well to finish sixth from a very unpromising position in last year's Gold Cup. People tend to dismiss horses like this a touch prematurely in my opinion. Yes, he is an awkward buggar both on the track and at home. But he reminds me of Deep Sensation in the 90s, in that he is still a horse who anybody would have been proud to own, despite their faults and being an obvious target to the detractors. Deep Sensation may be best known for finding less than expected in the big races, but he still won a Champion Chase, and do not forget Tidal Bay horse won an Arkle. So write him off at your peril. He looks fantastic at the moment, has improved a ton from his reappearance run and he has done loads of schooling recently. I just wish he was eight and not 11, but he is in really good shape and the breathing op he had in the summer seems to have helped him. Ruby has the chance to atone for his only ride on Tidal Bay so far - when beaten at odds of 1-4 at Doncaster four years ago - so over to you Walsh!

15:10

Polisky

He wasn't going after one hurdle when disappointing badly at Newbury last time and wouldn't have won an egg and spoon race that day. But nothing came to light and I am inclined to put a line through that run and move on. The weather was atrocious at Newbury and it was hopefully just the ground that was responsible; sometimes horses like him that have had a breathing op just can't, or don't want to, operate in that ground. But if he returns to the form of his earlier five length third to Fingal Bay and Barbatos here in November, then you're looking at a horse with serious claims here. I expect a much improved showing on this better ground, and he worked really well on Wednesday.

15:40

Big Buck's

I say it every time this horse runs; what can I say about Big Buck's that you don't already know? The answer is nothing. It would be the height of arrogance to assume horses will automatically win these big races - I know he is a 1-4 chance here, but Denman was beaten at odds of 1-6, and Hinterland at 2-7 - but obviously if he runs to form, then you have to think he will win. That said, he did have me slightly worried three out in the Long Walk at Ascot last time, but as soon as Ruby asked him the question he responded in brilliant fashion. I would much rather ask him to race rather than work him hard at home, especially as he tends to take far too little out of himself on the gallops these days. So I would rather maintain his fitness by racing him, rather than easing off him, and then bringing him back for the Festival. I heard connections of Dynaste thought they had a shot at beating us off levels at Ascot last time, and I would expect them not to eyeball us so much here, and they also get 4lb today. He would possibly be my idea of the biggest danger here along with Mourad - Five Dream excepted of course! But Big Buck's is in seriously good order and looks stunning.

Five Dream

I was toying with the idea of hunter chases for him when he was disappointing over fences earlier in the season, but the owners knew best and we decided to go down the "me and my shadow" route on Big Buck's' coat-tails! So we are here with the horse having picked up over £22,000 in prize money after seconds at Newbury and Ascot, and fingers crossed he can do the same today. Expect him to be given another creeping ride again and to pick up the stragglers late on. I did a talk in the Betfair box before racing at Ascot and tipped him in the "without favourite" market at 14-1. More of the same would be nice.

16:15

Hinterland

French import who made an impressive hurdling debut for me when beating Hollow Tree by three lengths here in November, before beaten seven lengths by Baby Mix last time. We had the option of taking on the winner again today in the opener but I have decided to try and take advantage of a handicap mark of 141, and the 4yo allowance. I know some people may disagree - i.e those who believe in the 11lb weight for age allowance - but in my eyes that is akin to him racing off 130 here and that is too good an opportunity to miss. In hindsight, we would have done things, and ridden him differently at Cheltenham last time, but whatever way you look at that race, he still comes out of it as the same horse as Baby Mix as were giving that horse 7lb and were beaten seven lengths. It will be interesting to see how Baby Mix goes in the first but, in any event, I would like to think my horse is better than he showed that day. I have yet to decide whether to aim him for the Triumph - he will also have an entry in the Supreme , too - but clearly this race will tell us a lot. And I will be disappointed if it isn't good news, or at least gives us plenty to work on. He worked really, really well with Woolcombe Folly on Thursday morning in preparation for this and he reminds me so much of Azertyuiop, in the respect of the speed he shows me at home and his size and scope as a potential chaser. I can't wait to get him chasing but he should get the good gallop he needs today and I think he has a great chance.

Saturday's are always tough but click here to find out my three best chances