Paul Nicholls: My Saturday runners at Ascot

Paul discusses his runners chances at Ascot on Saturday, including Al Ferof, and explains why experience is vital and complacency must be guarded against...

14:05

Violin Davis

Won a 2m6f handicap at Wincanton by 13 lengths on her reappearance and has run two creditable efforts in defeat over 3m1f at Kempton subsequently, last time out finishing third to easy winner Kentford Grey Lady. We re-oppose the progressive winner on 11lb better terms here for a seven length beating, so we clearly have chances of reversing the form, and conditions here should suit her. Looks a competitive race all round though.

14:35

Royal Charm

We had high hopes for him after he beat Carrickboy by 22 lengths on his chasing debut at Exeter in November 2010 but it would be fair to say that things haven't panned out ideally since then. He had plenty of niggles last season and this campaign has been little better than a disaster for him, falling at Sandown and then finishing last of four at Exeter. We bring him back to hurdles here to get his confidence back and, to be honest, I would be surprised if he could get competitive off a mark of 145. But sometimes horses can surprise you switching back from chases to hurdles, and he had very decent hurdling form in 2009.

15:10 Ascot

Al Ferof

First things first - if he wins today, then don't be enticed by seemingly generous bookmaker quotes and go backing him to win the Champion Chase immediately after the race. Because they won't be generous if he doesn't even run in the race, will they? Yes, he has entry in the big one. But as I said here last week, I wouldn't have been doing my job had I not got given him an entry in the Champion and would have been fuming at myself had something happened to the likes of Sizing Europe or Big Zeb, and we didn't even have the option of running. But the plan is the Arkle and I would much rather him running in a 100k race gaining experience, rather than a 20k novice. And if he does win this, that will set us up very nicely indeed for Cheltenham. One of the best novice hurdlers last season - his defeat of Spirit Son in the Supreme couldn't have worked out better - he has delighted me in both his wins at Cheltenham and Sandown this season, especially as those two tracks take plenty of jumping. There were some who crabbed his performance in only beating For Non Stop a neck at Sandown last time, but they miss the point, notwithstanding that he won that race in a good time and the runner-up is a good horse in his own right; at this stage of the season, it is all about getting experience into your horses and readying them for the big day.

We know he has the class to shine in any company, it is my job to harness that and bring it to the fore. And with Al Ferof, that involves schooling, schooling - and then more schooling. Don't get me wrong, he jumps really well, as you have seen on the track. But you don't get complacent with novices. As for this race, he clearly has to improve upon the bare form of his two chase wins to mix it successfully with the likes of Somersby, Finian's Rainbow, Gauvain and Wishfull Thinking. But not too much; I believe Timeform have him fourth top-rated, just 9lb below their form choice Somersby. And I also don't agree with those who have been building this up into a two horse race between ours and Finian's Rainbow, either. Whether this test comes too soon for Al Ferof, we will know today. But he is great form, I can tell you that.

15:45

Noland

This three-time Grade 1 and Cheltenham Festival winner has clearly had his problems in recent years, but showed he was no back number when edging out What A Friend in the Aon last season. Granted, the runner-up may have handed him the race that day but it was still a great effort all the same. I was happy enough with his reappearance fifth in the Lexus and he will certainly strip fitter today. This is clearly a very competitive race but he is theoretically not that badly handicapped and ground and trip should suit here.

16:20

The Pretender

Won a 1m7f bumper in three starts in France and on the back of those efforts was made favourite on his hurdling debut at Warwick in November. The bare form of that run may have been disappointing - he was beaten 15 lengths - but the way he travelled to two out gave me hope that there was better to come from him.


On a very competitive weekend of racing, I will be happy with one winner. But Celestial Halo has an obvious chance, and I hope Al Ferof and Billy Merriott have winning claims too.

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Unpartou makes his debut for Paul and the Timeform Betfair Racing Club today. Join the club and you can experience what it's like to be an owner in his yard and cheer home your horses at the track plus a host of other amazing benefits. For just £249 a year you can follow our 13 horses, get access to to owners badges, annual stable visits to all our trainer's yards, access to tickets for Betfair sponsored events and £1000's of pounds worth of Timeform Race Cards. Check out all the club horses and join today!

Paul Nicholls / 21 Jan 2012