Paul Nicholls: My Friday runners at Newbury

Paul Nicholls provides in-depth profiles of all his runners for the Betfair-sponsored racing at Newbury on Friday afternoon...

12:10 Newbury

Hold Fast

This horse is very tricky to train as he has intermittent lameness and foot problems - but he doesn't lack in talent either judged on his seven length defeat of All For Free at Sandown last time. Although we expected him to come on for his reappearance run here and he was well-backed at Sandown, the manner of his victory certainly came as a bit of a shock to us.

Admittedly, the form of that race hasn't worked out at all, but the emphatic nature of his win told us that we have to step him up in class and see where he takes us. I'm not saying that he has Grade 1 pretentions at the Cheltenham Festival at this stage - not by a long chalk - but that was the same Sandown race that Master Minded won before winning the Champion Chase in 2008. And St Pirran also won that race in 2004 before taking the Grand Annual that season, albeit squeezing in a fall in between. So wouldn't it be great if he could make it a memorable hat-trick.

There is no Cue Card in opposition but clearly he will need to improve to give the likes of Sprinter Sacre and French Opera a run for their money. But sometimes these unheralded, and hard-to-train, horses can continue to surprise you. Let's hope he does.

12:40 Newbury

Tidal Bay

I had half an idea that Tidal Bay could be a Grand National horse this season but his run in the Argento last time told me that he simply doesn't jump well enough for Aintree. But that race also told me that I still have a high class horse on my hands. Don't get me wrong, I'm not blinkered to his faults - certainly not as much as those who backed him at odds as short as 4-11 in running on Betfair at Cheltenham, anyway - and he clearly doesn't deliver as much as he promises in his races. But hopefully that situation will improve the more Ruby, and we, get to know the horse. Fact is, this horse is a Cheltenham Festival winner whose latest two-and-three-quarter length second to Midnight Chase puts him in with a definite chance of chasing home Long Run. The Gold Cup is the plan after this.

What A Friend

If Tidal Bay has been called some names in the past, then so has What A Friend. But give me a dual Grade 1 winner with a bit of an attitude every day of the week, thanks very much. Yes, his head second to Noland in this race last season wasn't too pretty to watch but he was carrying a 10lb penalty that day and isn't here. And furthermore the application of blinkers saw him just a short head behind Kauto Star, when an 11 length fourth (obviously off levels) to Long Run in the Gold Cup. He receives 10lb from Long Run today, which makes things interesting. Especially as he comes here really fresh and well after returning sick from Wetherby in October. If he shows some of Denman's tenacity today to go along with his undoubted talent, then who knows? Stranger things have happened and Timeform only have him 6lb behind on their ratings. The more it dries out the better for him. It will be the Gold Cup for him after this.

13:15 Newbury

Zarkandar - see separate story

Brampour

Brampour finished 11 lengths behind Zarkandar in the Triumph Hurdle last season, yet is asked to give him 11lb here - and that underlines what progress he has made in this campaign. A narrow success at Ascot on his reappearance was followed up with an impressive and clear-cut win in the Greatwood, and then he lost nothing in defeat when third to Grandouet and Overturn in the International, where Harry couldn't claim his usual 7lb. Then we ran him too soon in the Ladbroke just a week later, and he didn't fire. But he is in great form at home and comes here en route to a crack at the Champion Hurdle. But he is clearly up against it here, racing off a mark of 162 and giving upwards of 11lb to some potentially well-handicapped horses. I could easily see him running into a place at big odds though; Harry takes 7lb off.

Empire Levant

He's taken a while to grow into his big frame and, to be truthful, still has some filling out to do before he is the finished article. But I think this horse could go well at a price here. We knew we had a well-handicapped horse on our hands at the start of the season and he duly dotted up on his reappearance over this course and distance, beating Tony Star and Right Stuff by 29 lengths and 50 lengths respectively. Both placed horses ran well on their next starts (the runner-up finished a close second in a handicap hurdle, and third was a winner on the Flat).

That gave us a decision to make and we decided to let him take his chance in the Gerry Fielden at this course just 48 hours later. Although he was a beaten favourite, he certainly was not disgraced in finishing a six length second to Rock On Ruby, and he had subsequent Ascot winner Raya Star four-and-a-half lengths behind in third. He is 12lb higher in the handicap today but this is a horse who has continued to please me (though he had a slight setback around Christmas) and I have had this race in mind for him for a while. Perhaps he won't prove to be as battle-hardened as he needs to be to win a prize of this nature, and chasing will be where he excels next season, but I don't think a mark of 140 flatters him. Has been working really well.

14:25 Newbury

Deireadh Re

This maiden pointer has done nothing but improve this season and stayed on dourly to get the better of Shoreacres over 2m6f at Wincanton last time, getting up on the line to win by a short head. He has paid for that victory with another 5lb rise in the weights but a stronger-run race over this longer trip (he had earlier won over 3m at Cheltenham) will suit. Let's hope his improvement curve remains on the up. Harry takes 7lb off.

14:55 Newbury

Picture This

I think it is fair to say that my face will be something of a picture if he wins this, because we are basically running him here to get him qualified for the Kim Muir. To be qualified for Cheltenham, you have to have run a novice three times over fences or hurdles by next Sunday, so I have to get a run into him, and there are precious few options. On form he has a mountain to climb to finish in the same parish as some of these, and he wasn't overly impressive when winning a match at Folkestone on his reappearance at odds of 1-6. But he wasn't straight there and his earlier form (he was off for a long while with a leg before Folkestone) shows he is far better than that. But surely not good enough for this company.

Cedre Bleu

Whatever he did over hurdles was always going to be a bonus and he showed a really likeable attitude on his chasing debut over 2m1f here, battling back to beat Bellvano, who won at Kelso on Wednesday. We were going to run him in this rescheduled race before the meeting was abandoned last week, and then at Exeter on Sunday before that was called off. So his preparation hasn't been ideal. But he has improved since Newbury, fitness and experience wise, and this race will tell us where we stand with a view to a possible run at Cheltenham. Although he will have to improve a good deal on the bare form of his win, I think the step up to 2m4f will be a help.

Pacha Du Polder

Had useful form in France and made a pleasing debut for me when beating Eradicate by a nose over 2m in a match at Sandown in November. The handicapper was very impressed by that and put him on a ridiculously high mark of 150, which was even more mystifying after he flopped at Ascot next time. But he won, as he was entitled to, when stepped down in class and up in trip at Warwick last time, even though he was a massive drifter in the market there by all accounts. This will tell us if he has Grade 1 aspirations at Cheltenham next month, though he clearly has to improve a good deal to trouble the likes of Champion Court and For Non Stop. But he only has seven races under his belt, so the potential is there.

15:30 Newbury

Vrai Vert

There are a few in this bumper that have already run to a very smart level of form, possibly chief among them Village Vic, Hold Court and Gevrey Chambertin, but I quite like my horse, too. Everyone knows that I don't rev my bumper horses up at home, so it was pleasing to see Vrai Vert win so well at Hereford in December, though he did have the experience of finishing third in a maiden point beforehand. He obviously has to improve to mix it in this loftier company but he is a useful prospect on what he showed us first time out. And he is bred to be smart, too, coming from a jumping family that includes Captain Chris.

Paul Nicholls / 17 Feb 2012