Paul Nicholls: Mon Parrain can win but rivals present real test

Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 11 November 2011 / 2

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Ruby riding Mon Parrain earlier this year

As much as I fancy my horse, I imagine all of Mon Parrain’s rivals have been trained specifically for this race too, and who knows how many of them have a few pounds in hand?

Paul believes his horse can triumph at Cheltenham on Saturday but would he take the current odds? The answer, and more, is revealed below...

Sometimes in racing you need to open the eyes and close the ears.

And I think we have reached that stage when assessing Mon Parrain's chances in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham tomorrow.

The bookmakers predictably jumped on the hype bandwagon at the start of the week and, with some now predicting he could go as short as 2-1, enough is enough.

Lest you need reminding, a certain Long Run was beaten at that price off a mark of just 158 in the race last season before winning the King George and Gold Cup.

Do I think that Mon Parrain can win tomorrow?

Yes, of course I do and I fancy him.

I have trained him specifically for the race, he goes there fit to run for his life and is a horse of immense, and Grade 1, potential. He could be thrown in off 152 - he isn't at all badly handicapped on what he has shown for me on the course so far - and that is why I left him in the King George at the latest forfeit stage; I'd look pretty stupid if he strolled home and he wasn't even entered at Kempton.

But is he a good price at the current Betfair odds of [4.5]?

Well, I am no betting man but I personally wouldn't be rushing to take those odds. He is not the easiest to train, I am not entirely sure of his optimum trip and I would be lying if the fact that he got beaten at Aintree (off a 3lb higher mark, remember) didn't play on my mind to a small degree.

And whereas I knew Granit Jack was the best handicapped horse going into the race in 2007, I cannot honestly say the same of Mon Parrain.

And then, of course, there is the little matter of the opposition, all 19 of them. As much as I fancy my horse, I imagine all of Mon Parrain's rivals have been trained specifically for this race too, and who knows how many of them have a few pounds in hand? After all, Timeform have only 4lb covering their top 10 rated horses in the race (Mon Parrain is 1lb behind top-rated Great Endeavour).

In short, I know my horse and am very hopeful of gaining my first win in the race. Any horse that jumps as well as he does - and he was stunning at both Sandown and Aintree - has an immediate advantage over his rivals, and last week's Exeter racecourse gallop with Kauto Star and Big Buck's will have hopefully put up him spot on for this.

And you can judge from yourself from the video below how well he worked on Thursday morning, as Betfair came down and put a helmet cam on his work rider, a certain Georgie Nicholls!

If I hope that Mon Parrain could develop into a Grade 1 performer, we already know that Poquelin is one. But then that is why he is giving away weight all round here. He got the go ahead for this after working on Thursday morning and let's hope he can put a very disappointing reappearance effort in the Charlie Hall behind him.

He was beaten too far out for the 3m trip to have the cause at Wetherby - that was the first time he had stayed away overnight, so maybe that's a reason - but he is some animal on his day, as he showed when giving Great Endeavour 21lb and a length beating at Cheltenham in December. And David Prichard's 7lb claim helps, too.

But realistically, I can't see him giving weight all round here, though his class and good ground give him an each way squeak at what are sure to be big odds.

Aerial completes my trio for the race, though he is racing from 4lb out of the handicap here, so he is effectively 14lb higher in the weights than when winning first time up for me at Wincanton. He was beaten at Ascot in April and doesn't look the best handicapped horse in the race.

But he had a breathing operation in the summer, and we know how that can transform a horse. We saw that with Brampour at Ascot, and Plenty Pocket at Kempton. So while it wouldn't be the greatest surprise in the world were he to run a big race, as he is working and schooling well, he looks up against it here.

We have 15 runners on one of the most competitive weekend's racing of the year, so you simply can't be confident of success for any of them.

But if you ask me what I think my three best chances are, I would nominate click here. But, in truth, they all face very difficult tasks first time up.

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paul | 11 November 2011

mon parrain is a false fav,poquelin will finish infront of that one.
its between wishful thinking and fine parchment for me !.
John | 12 November 2011

Not really sure what to make of Paul's columns here to be honest in terms of what you can take from them / believe...

Paul says in today's column above;

"Well, I am no betting man but I personally wouldn't be rushing to take those odds."

Yet in his column on the 31st of October he said the following about Master Minded;

"I have made no secret that I have backed Master Minded at 7-1 for Kempton"