Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 26 December 2011 / 2

The media may be obsessed with the Kauto v Long Run rematch but Paul Nicholls has faith in his other King George runner...

I don't think it will come as a big surprise to readers that, of my pair in the race, I would dearly love Kauto Star to cement his place in the history books by winning an unprecedented fifth King George today.

But for a few fleeting seconds on Wednesday, if I had one Christmas wish it would have been for Master Minded to hack up today, which of course he might just do.

It is fair to say that Tom Segal doesn't have the best record when it comes to assessing Kauto Star's chances in past King Georges, so it did make me laugh when I read in the Weekender on Wednesday that he reckons Master Minded "has absolutely zero chance of winning on Boxing Day and I wouldn't back him at 25-1 let alone 11-2."

Master Minded may be a dual Champion Chase winner, but he is not a two miler stepping up to 3m here. He is now a 2m4f horse, who I think has every chance of staying 3m.

You simply can't make definitive statements of whether horses like him will or won't stay until they have tried. I defy anyone to look at the video of Kauto Star beating Ashley Brook in the 2005 Tingle Creek, and say "Yes, I have just seen a dual Cheltenham Gold Cup winner there."

I don't know if Master Minded will stay - funnily enough, we don't work them flat out over 3m and 18 fences at home - but I do know that his best recent performances have been over 2m4f, and I always remember Ruby getting off him after he won a handicap at Sandown three years ago and saying that the horse needed a trip.

The official handicapper only rates him 4lb inferior to Long Run and, while in some ways this race is an afterthought for Kauto Star, I have trained Master Minded specifically for this ever since he beat Albertas Run by nine lengths at Aintree last April.

He has been trained for this race, and this race only, since he came back in training in July. People ask me whether you can train stamina into a horse, but the answer is no. They stay or they don't, and I have trained him exactly the same for this race as I would if it was over 2m.

He is in danger of becoming the forgotten horse in the race as the media gears up for the Long Run v Kauto Star re-match, but this horse is all class and super fit and if you are laying him at 8.0+ on Betfair you are taking a big risk in my opinion.

As supposed second-strings go, an eight-time Grade 1 winner who could just improve for the step up in trip isn't too bad, is it?

In fact, has there ever been a super-sub, one officially rated 178, going into any jumps race before?

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1. Gerry Lennon | 26 December 2011

   Key points: Kauto is down 20lbs from mark, off a poor season.
   Long Run beat Kauto last year, but if Kauto was 20lbs below his best how inflated is Long Run's rating?
   The question is who will run to a 177+ rating this time?
   Long Run improved 9lbs on his fto last season, puts him on 171 or therabouts?
   Kauto ran off 166, but rated 170. Without further improvement he will not win ... but 7lbs for the run and on his favourite track, oh yes!
   Master Minded recent best puts him in at 177(imo), and the one to beat. Distance not a problem as fluent jumping will put him right there at the finish. Can he top 177 though?

2. paul | 27 December 2011

   the biggest problem for my money is that the best jockey ruby walsh is on kauto,and that liability jacob is on master minded !
   any decent wages about jacob being moved on at the end of the season,i would be glad to lump on !

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