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Paul Nicholls: Exclusive views on all my Ascot runners

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A bumper band of Ditcheat's finest are at Ascot for a high-class card that includes two big hurdles prizes in the Long Walk and Ladbroke. Read about all of Paul's nine horses here

13:25, Ascot
Hold Fast
Is a non-runner. Was found to be lame yesterday afternoon.

13:55, Ascot
Aerial
Won on his debut for me at Wincanton last February (it was pretty soft that day) and came back to that form when a 15 length fourth to Great Endevaour in the Paddy Power, his first start after a summer breathing operation and one that really pleased me considering he raced from 4lb out of the handicap. Took a while to get over that race but looks fine now, and we drop him into this Graduation Chase from handicaps. This race has cut up at the overnight stage and he is one of a number of horses closely matched on official figures in this. Our old inmate Hell's Bay is the interesting one in this on his comeback run.

14:30, Ascot
Big Buck's
Everyone knows all about this horse, so what is there new to say? If he runs to his best - and for me his Aintree run last season sets the standard - it will probably take the best staying hurdle performance in decades to see him beaten today. So is there any reason why he may run below form? Well, he is as good as ever at home and should be sharper for his reappearance win at Newbury; Rose, who looks after him, says he has improved from Newbury and the horse was mad fresh on Thursday morning.
This is the first time he has raced right-handed in this country, though, which is a question mark. But sometimes you get the impression that he could race backwards and still win!
I respect any up-and-comer, as I did with Grands Crus last season, and David Pipe has another similar one on his hands in the shape of Dynaste, impressive eight length winner from Benny Be Good in the Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdles at Haydock. He is unexposed and could be the main threat, as the form of that race is working out well, but he was only winning that race off a mark of 141.
Big Buck's will probably be beaten over hurdles one day but it will be disappointing if that is today.

Five Dream
His prospects for the season looked bleak when he ran poorly in a Chepstow handicap chase in October. But he has certainly recaptured his best since we sent over hurdles, finishing second to The Knoxs at Exeter and then chasing home Big Buck's at Newbury. He picked up over £6,000 for finishing second there, so we are content to let him chase Big Buck's tail for now. But this is more competitive than the Newbury race, for sure.

15:05, Ascot
Neptune Collonges
If anyone thinks that we are keeping Neptune Collonges in the race to keep the weights down for The Minack then they can think again; he goes here because we need to get runs into him after a moderate effort in the Hennessy, where I don't think he tried too hard to be honest.
Positives here are that he will be all the better for that run, the handicapper has dropped him 6lb from Cheltenham and I think the last time he raced right-handed he beat Snowy Morning by seven lengths in the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup. But that was in 2008 and to be competitive in races like this, he needs to come down far more in the handicap.
But let us hope I am wrong. He used to love soft ground when at his best, but I reckon he needs better ground these days, as when winning the Argento last January. Harry takes 7lb off.

The Minack
A mistake cost him any winning chance in the Reynoldstown over course and distance last season, but I have always thought a lot of this horse. And I said before his reappearance in the Badger Ales that I thought he had an outstanding chance and he proved me right in winning, though he had to battle for his ½ length win over stablemate Meanus Dandy. He has taken a 9lb hike up the weights but he could still be fairly treated off 150 - I think that much of him - and the more it rains, the more confident I will become.

15:35, Ascot
I thought that my daughter Megan could be the key to what is the best of my trio here. She has finished school for the Christmas holidays, so was riding work this morning. She was on Brampour first lot, and he worked with Prospect Wells. And when I asked her how Brampour went, she said: "He is flying Dad!". And then she worked Tonic Mellysse second lot and reported that he went really well, too. So I said to her, you have had ridden or been upsides all three of my Ladbrokes runners now, which is the best one?

"Brampour. Just!" was the answer.

Hope that helps...!

Brampour
He didn't fulfil his potential last season but a breathing operation has seen him improve dramatically, winning valuable handicaps here and at Cheltenham, and he ran a great race when beaten just over four lengths into third behind Grandouet and Overturn last week, with Menorah nine lengths away in fourth. Everyone knows that Harry couldn't claim his usual 7lb there and the handicapper is set to raise him 9lb after that effort, so my hand has been forced somewhat in turning him out again so quickly here; he is the pick of the weights according to the official figures and this is a very valuable prize.
The original plan had been to give him a break but I am only running him because he seems to have come out of the race in fine fettle (see above), as Edgardo Sol did the week before. Harry can claim his 7lb here and while I personally wouldn't make too much of the fact that we couldn't work him for three days last week because of a slight pus problem in a foot, it certainly wasn't ideal. But last week showed us that we have a possible Champion Hurdle outsider on our hands, so we take our chance off 159 here.

Prospect Wells
If Brampour is undeniably well handicapped, then I think Prospect Wells is equally temptingly treated off a mark of 142 - not on proven form, but on potential. But whether this potential should see him starting as the favourite here, I don't know. But what I do know is that his biggest weakness when he came to us is now his biggest asset; namely his jumping. We couldn't get him off the ground when he first came to us but to see him hurdle in a race now, you wouldn't believe it is the same horse. It is so slick and fluent.
And he possibly should be coming here unbeaten, as I think only inexperience cost him victory at Cheltenham when he was worried out of it close home. Ruby was also very impressed with him when he gave 5lb and a four length beating to the smart Flat stayer All The Aces at Newbury last time. So while he has it do on the bare form of what he has achieved, I would definitely say that we haven't seen the best of him yet and that a strongly-run race could see him come into his own.
Don't forget that this horse was a Group 2 winner on the Flat and is probably the highest rated horse to have come to me from that sphere. I don't think the ground will be a problem, either.

Tonic Mellysse
Things haven't really clicked for him since coming over from France, but I wouldn't lose faith in him just yet. He had jumped well and was going strongly when falling in a three-runner chase at Warwick, and I have decided to bring him back to hurdles to get his confidence back. Is a smart hurdler at his best, though a mark of 138 isn't too generous (he was upped 4lb after being beaten 14 lengths at Cheltenham in October). We will see how he gets on here but I do like this horse and it is just possible that the softer ground could see him belie his massive odds (he is available at [55.0] on Betfair).

Click here to find my best chance of the weekend.

Paul Nicholls / 17 Dec 2011

Paul Nicholls: Exclusive views on all my Ascot runners

Weekend Runners RSS / / 17 December 2011 / 1

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Can anything stop Big Buck's from landing anotyher major prize?

Can anything stop Big Buck's from landing anotyher major prize?

"This is the first time Big Buck's has raced right-handed in this country, though, which is a question mark. But sometimes you get the impression that he could race backwards and still win!"

A bumper band of Ditcheat's finest are at Ascot for a high-class card that includes two big hurdles prizes in the Long Walk and Ladbroke. Read about all of Paul's nine horses here

13:25, Ascot
Hold Fast
Is a non-runner. Was found to be lame yesterday afternoon.

13:55, Ascot
Aerial
Won on his debut for me at Wincanton last February (it was pretty soft that day) and came back to that form when a 15 length fourth to Great Endevaour in the Paddy Power, his first start after a summer breathing operation and one that really pleased me considering he raced from 4lb out of the handicap. Took a while to get over that race but looks fine now, and we drop him into this Graduation Chase from handicaps. This race has cut up at the overnight stage and he is one of a number of horses closely matched on official figures in this. Our old inmate Hell's Bay is the interesting one in this on his comeback run.

14:30, Ascot
Big Buck's
Everyone knows all about this horse, so what is there new to say? If he runs to his best - and for me his Aintree run last season sets the standard - it will probably take the best staying hurdle performance in decades to see him beaten today. So is there any reason why he may run below form? Well, he is as good as ever at home and should be sharper for his reappearance win at Newbury; Rose, who looks after him, says he has improved from Newbury and the horse was mad fresh on Thursday morning.
This is the first time he has raced right-handed in this country, though, which is a question mark. But sometimes you get the impression that he could race backwards and still win!
I respect any up-and-comer, as I did with Grands Crus last season, and David Pipe has another similar one on his hands in the shape of Dynaste, impressive eight length winner from Benny Be Good in the Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdles at Haydock. He is unexposed and could be the main threat, as the form of that race is working out well, but he was only winning that race off a mark of 141.
Big Buck's will probably be beaten over hurdles one day but it will be disappointing if that is today.

Five Dream
His prospects for the season looked bleak when he ran poorly in a Chepstow handicap chase in October. But he has certainly recaptured his best since we sent over hurdles, finishing second to The Knoxs at Exeter and then chasing home Big Buck's at Newbury. He picked up over £6,000 for finishing second there, so we are content to let him chase Big Buck's tail for now. But this is more competitive than the Newbury race, for sure.

15:05, Ascot
Neptune Collonges
If anyone thinks that we are keeping Neptune Collonges in the race to keep the weights down for The Minack then they can think again; he goes here because we need to get runs into him after a moderate effort in the Hennessy, where I don't think he tried too hard to be honest.
Positives here are that he will be all the better for that run, the handicapper has dropped him 6lb from Cheltenham and I think the last time he raced right-handed he beat Snowy Morning by seven lengths in the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup. But that was in 2008 and to be competitive in races like this, he needs to come down far more in the handicap.
But let us hope I am wrong. He used to love soft ground when at his best, but I reckon he needs better ground these days, as when winning the Argento last January. Harry takes 7lb off.

The Minack
A mistake cost him any winning chance in the Reynoldstown over course and distance last season, but I have always thought a lot of this horse. And I said before his reappearance in the Badger Ales that I thought he had an outstanding chance and he proved me right in winning, though he had to battle for his ½ length win over stablemate Meanus Dandy. He has taken a 9lb hike up the weights but he could still be fairly treated off 150 - I think that much of him - and the more it rains, the more confident I will become.

15:35, Ascot
I thought that my daughter Megan could be the key to what is the best of my trio here. She has finished school for the Christmas holidays, so was riding work this morning. She was on Brampour first lot, and he worked with Prospect Wells. And when I asked her how Brampour went, she said: "He is flying Dad!". And then she worked Tonic Mellysse second lot and reported that he went really well, too. So I said to her, you have had ridden or been upsides all three of my Ladbrokes runners now, which is the best one?

"Brampour. Just!" was the answer.

Hope that helps...!

Brampour
He didn't fulfil his potential last season but a breathing operation has seen him improve dramatically, winning valuable handicaps here and at Cheltenham, and he ran a great race when beaten just over four lengths into third behind Grandouet and Overturn last week, with Menorah nine lengths away in fourth. Everyone knows that Harry couldn't claim his usual 7lb there and the handicapper is set to raise him 9lb after that effort, so my hand has been forced somewhat in turning him out again so quickly here; he is the pick of the weights according to the official figures and this is a very valuable prize.
The original plan had been to give him a break but I am only running him because he seems to have come out of the race in fine fettle (see above), as Edgardo Sol did the week before. Harry can claim his 7lb here and while I personally wouldn't make too much of the fact that we couldn't work him for three days last week because of a slight pus problem in a foot, it certainly wasn't ideal. But last week showed us that we have a possible Champion Hurdle outsider on our hands, so we take our chance off 159 here.

Prospect Wells
If Brampour is undeniably well handicapped, then I think Prospect Wells is equally temptingly treated off a mark of 142 - not on proven form, but on potential. But whether this potential should see him starting as the favourite here, I don't know. But what I do know is that his biggest weakness when he came to us is now his biggest asset; namely his jumping. We couldn't get him off the ground when he first came to us but to see him hurdle in a race now, you wouldn't believe it is the same horse. It is so slick and fluent.
And he possibly should be coming here unbeaten, as I think only inexperience cost him victory at Cheltenham when he was worried out of it close home. Ruby was also very impressed with him when he gave 5lb and a four length beating to the smart Flat stayer All The Aces at Newbury last time. So while he has it do on the bare form of what he has achieved, I would definitely say that we haven't seen the best of him yet and that a strongly-run race could see him come into his own.
Don't forget that this horse was a Group 2 winner on the Flat and is probably the highest rated horse to have come to me from that sphere. I don't think the ground will be a problem, either.

Tonic Mellysse
Things haven't really clicked for him since coming over from France, but I wouldn't lose faith in him just yet. He had jumped well and was going strongly when falling in a three-runner chase at Warwick, and I have decided to bring him back to hurdles to get his confidence back. Is a smart hurdler at his best, though a mark of 138 isn't too generous (he was upped 4lb after being beaten 14 lengths at Cheltenham in October). We will see how he gets on here but I do like this horse and it is just possible that the softer ground could see him belie his massive odds (he is available at [55.0] on Betfair).

Click here to find my best chance of the weekend.

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  1. mike | 17 December 2011

    Hi Paul,
    aerial and the minack helped me to a very good lucky 15,6-1.7-2 others.Ruby rode a genius race on THE MINACK to get him home.He is incredible for guts and stamina like many of your horses,best regards to your great unseen team who work and prepare the horses so well.And of course your inspired leadership,well done.