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Paul Nicholls: Confident about Kauto, but not that confident

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Kauto Star is in tremendous shape ahead of the big Boxing Day race at Kempton but whether or not he will win the King George is another matter, says Paul Nicholls.

I was more confident of Kauto Star beating Long Run in the Betfair Chase, than I am of my horse confirming the Haydock form in the King George today.

There, I have said it.

For punters out there, that may seem a very strange thing to say given that Kauto Star was twice the price at Haydock than he is likely to go off at Kempton today, and that he beat Long Run so convincingly there.

But going to Haydock, I was really bullish in my own mind that Kauto was as fit and well as I could possibly have had him. But, for obvious reasons, I had to rein back my true enthusiasm and confidence going into the race; a race, lest we forget, that many were saying that he shouldn't even be running in.

Hand on heart, I cannot say the same today. I'm confident, but not that confident.

Don't get me wrong, there is absolutely nothing in his homework or demeanour that says that he isn't in A1 condition here; if he wasn't then we would not even have considered running him. And Dan made a good point the other day when he suggested that Kauto's heavy fall in the 2010 Gold Cup may have left more than a mark than we thought.

Whatever the truth of the situation, Kauto Star is certainly in a far better physical place than he was 12 months ago. Every day he works with Master Minded, and every day they both show the same speed and appetite for the game. In fact, Kauto Star looks absolutely tremendous in all aspects of his well-being.

But history and common sense dictates that whenever you gear up a horse to be at his absolute peak on one day, then it is asking a lot of them to repeat the feat just five weeks later. Especially in the highest class.

Then again, Kauto Star is no clearly ordinary horse.

Long Run is undeniably a worthy favourite. He is entitled to come on for Haydock - before this year, Kauto was never cherry ripe when running in the Betfair - and you only have to look at the fact that he beat our horse 19 lengths in this race last year, and by 11 lengths in the Gold Cup, to see who goes into the race with the most solid credentials. And he is a six-year-old, and Kauto is 11.

We kept our front running tactics under wraps before Haydock, and I am certainly not going to air them here either. I will speak to Ruby this morning but there looks to be plenty of potential pace in the race with Nacarat, and Ruby will play it as he sees it.

And having Ruby back on board for the King George again is a massive plus; the pair are poetry in motion and suit each other as do Eskimos and snow (well, you know what I mean!).

They got the better of Sam and Long Run in the jumping stakes at Haydock, and that is one potential area of weakness for the reigning champs for the other rivals to try and exploit.

I suppose there is another. I get on really well with Sam but I wouldn't mind if he hears Long Run making a noise and pulls him up a circuit too early!

Joking aside and in all seriousness, I have the utmost respect for Long Run, Nicky, and Robert and Sam Waley-Cohen. And if they turn the tables on us, then I will take defeat with the same good grace that they did at Haydock.

* * *

Betfair also has two great promotions to help you get more out of your festive betting:

Prize Draw: Be in the draw for Betfair's Christmas Giveaway Bonanza, just bet and you're in! Top prize is a 10% share in a horse of your choice from the club. Lots of great runners up prizes including Race Day Hospitality, invited to Betfair's private VIP Cheltenham Preview and much more.


Multiple: Get up to 10% boost on your Multiples winnings or 10% back on your losses over the holiday period. Opt in now and we'll boost you no matter if you win or lose!

Paul Nicholls / 26 Dec 2011

Paul Nicholls: Confident about Kauto, but not that confident

Weekend Runners RSS / / 26 December 2011 / 1

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Can Kauto repeat his Betfair Chase heroics at Kempton today?

Can Kauto repeat his Betfair Chase heroics at Kempton today?

"History and common sense dictates that whenever you gear up a horse to be at his absolute peak on one day, then it is asking a lot of them to repeat the feat just five weeks later."

Kauto Star is in tremendous shape ahead of the big Boxing Day race at Kempton but whether or not he will win the King George is another matter, says Paul Nicholls.

I was more confident of Kauto Star beating Long Run in the Betfair Chase, than I am of my horse confirming the Haydock form in the King George today.

There, I have said it.

For punters out there, that may seem a very strange thing to say given that Kauto Star was twice the price at Haydock than he is likely to go off at Kempton today, and that he beat Long Run so convincingly there.

But going to Haydock, I was really bullish in my own mind that Kauto was as fit and well as I could possibly have had him. But, for obvious reasons, I had to rein back my true enthusiasm and confidence going into the race; a race, lest we forget, that many were saying that he shouldn't even be running in.

Hand on heart, I cannot say the same today. I'm confident, but not that confident.

Don't get me wrong, there is absolutely nothing in his homework or demeanour that says that he isn't in A1 condition here; if he wasn't then we would not even have considered running him. And Dan made a good point the other day when he suggested that Kauto's heavy fall in the 2010 Gold Cup may have left more than a mark than we thought.

Whatever the truth of the situation, Kauto Star is certainly in a far better physical place than he was 12 months ago. Every day he works with Master Minded, and every day they both show the same speed and appetite for the game. In fact, Kauto Star looks absolutely tremendous in all aspects of his well-being.

But history and common sense dictates that whenever you gear up a horse to be at his absolute peak on one day, then it is asking a lot of them to repeat the feat just five weeks later. Especially in the highest class.

Then again, Kauto Star is no clearly ordinary horse.

Long Run is undeniably a worthy favourite. He is entitled to come on for Haydock - before this year, Kauto was never cherry ripe when running in the Betfair - and you only have to look at the fact that he beat our horse 19 lengths in this race last year, and by 11 lengths in the Gold Cup, to see who goes into the race with the most solid credentials. And he is a six-year-old, and Kauto is 11.

We kept our front running tactics under wraps before Haydock, and I am certainly not going to air them here either. I will speak to Ruby this morning but there looks to be plenty of potential pace in the race with Nacarat, and Ruby will play it as he sees it.

And having Ruby back on board for the King George again is a massive plus; the pair are poetry in motion and suit each other as do Eskimos and snow (well, you know what I mean!).

They got the better of Sam and Long Run in the jumping stakes at Haydock, and that is one potential area of weakness for the reigning champs for the other rivals to try and exploit.

I suppose there is another. I get on really well with Sam but I wouldn't mind if he hears Long Run making a noise and pulls him up a circuit too early!

Joking aside and in all seriousness, I have the utmost respect for Long Run, Nicky, and Robert and Sam Waley-Cohen. And if they turn the tables on us, then I will take defeat with the same good grace that they did at Haydock.

* * *

Betfair also has two great promotions to help you get more out of your festive betting:

Prize Draw: Be in the draw for Betfair's Christmas Giveaway Bonanza, just bet and you're in! Top prize is a 10% share in a horse of your choice from the club. Lots of great runners up prizes including Race Day Hospitality, invited to Betfair's private VIP Cheltenham Preview and much more.


Multiple: Get up to 10% boost on your Multiples winnings or 10% back on your losses over the holiday period. Opt in now and we'll boost you no matter if you win or lose!

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  1. Anonymous | 28 December 2011

    I cannot believe that Timeform still rate Long Run ahead of Kauto after the 2011 King George. Until long Run beats Kauto, it should be Kauto that is top rated.
    At least this has proved that Timeform has lost all credibility with punters.
    Long may Kauto be champion!!