Newbury Betting: Paul Nicholls on his Saturday runners

Some up-and-coming prospects and a horse Grand National potential are in action at Newbury on Saturday. Read Paul's thoughts on them all here

15:00
We have won this race in four of the last five seasons, with Big Fella Thanks (2010), New Little Bric ('09), Natal ('08) and Cornish Sett ('06), and Nozic was only beaten ½ length by Madison Du Berlais in 2007.

Niche Market: We won this race with Big Fella Thanks last year before his fourth in the Grand National, and I see Ferdy is going down that path again this year with him, too. Obviously as an Irish National winner and Hennessy third, Niche Market will find the 2m4f plenty short enough; indeed, he has never raced over less than 3m, making his hurdling debut over that trip in 2006. But as Ruby always says, a run over this sort of trip can really sharpen these National horses up. Has had a breathing operation since his fifth in the Hennessy in November - I think Ian said in his piece here last week that the horse was roaring all the way down the straight there - so you would think and hope that would have really helped him. Comes here in good form, but Aintree is clearly the number one priority, not today.

Take The Breeze: Despite being beaten 27 lengths, I actually think he didn't run too badly against class horses over 2m1f at Newbury last time. Ideally, he wouldn't want the ground to dry up too much here. But, that said, he did finish an excellent third at Aintree last season and it was officially good ground when second at Ascot on his appearance over 3m. This 2m4f trip could suit him (he has won four of his five chase starts over trips between 2m2f and 2m6f) as he hasn't been finishing in some of his races over 3m. Ryan takes a very handy 5lb off.

15:35
Sire Collonges: Won his only start in France over 2m2f at Auteuil, and travelled well for a way but needed the run over 2m4f at Ascot on his reappearance. We run him over 2m here instead of the 2m5f race on the card and he is a nice prospect who may not be badly handicapped off 125, but he is a staying chaser in the making and we are biding our time with him. In fact, he reminds me very much of Aiteen Thirtythree this time last year; big, rangy and weak and one who needs patience. Aiteen Thirtythree was showing a level of form around 120 when second in a novices' hurdle at this meeting last year, and look how he is rated over fences now.

16:10
Rangitoto: Was the favourite in a novice hurdle at the abandoned Chepstow meeting last Saturday, but this looks a harder race. However, the 3m here should really suit and he should give a very good account of himself. Won an Irish point last year, where he had a tall reputation, but I don't take too much notice of reputations - it is what they do on the track that counts. Made a very pleasing hurdling debut when a narrow second to Doctor Foxtrot at Ffos Las, where he was probably in front a bit soon there and idled. Will be a lot sharper today.

17:20
Broomfield: Is a lovely big horse. As with Zarkandar, he will excite the pedigree boys as he is by Selkirk out of Arc runner-up Behera, which makes him a half-brother to the smart 1m4f-1m7f Flat winner Behkara and the high-class hurdler/chaser Behrajan. We like what we see at home, and he would be one of my nicest bumper horses in the yard; shouldn't be far away, though he obviously lines up against similarly unexposed sorts.


Paul's three best chances this weekend are...
Take The Breeze (Each Way) Newbury, 15:00
Meanus Dandy (Each Way) Doncaster, 15:15
Rangitoto Newbury, 16:10

Betfair now offer Each Way Multiples for Racing. To bet Paul's three in an multiple click here.

Paul Nicholls / 5 Mar 2011