Friday Racing: Paul Nicholls on his runners at Newbury

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Paul's got a bumper batch of runners at Newbury this afternoon with What A Friend looking to put himself in Gold Cup contention, Noland aiming to bounce back and Tricky Trickster getting a sharpener.

12:10

Valentine Vic

Winning pointer who will make his proper mark when sent over fences. But he showed fair form over hurdles when beating Triggerman by six lengths at Taunton last season, before a breathing problem surfaced when disappointing next time. Hopefully, that problem has now been rectified. I would say that Valentine Vic is on a workable, perhaps even winnable, mark off 125 here before he goes chasing.

12:45

We have won five of the last nine runnings of the Aon with five different horses (Shotgun Willy, Valley Henry, Kauto Star, Denman and Tricky Trickster) and we rely on What A Friend and Noland today. The race has cut up to just five runners, with the likes of Riverside Theatre going to Ascot on Saturday, so hopefully we can make it six from 10 with a different horse today.

What A Friend

Finished a fine second to Denman in the Hennessy last season, and went on to record Grade 1 successes at Leopardstown and Aintree. Had a breathing operation in the summer and I thought he had improved, so he undoubtedly disappointed me when only fifth in the Betfair Chase. But he didn't like the tacky ground there and I can forgive any horse one poor run. We have targeted this race ever since Haydock and he goes well fresh, so he needs to win this if we are to entertain thoughts of the Gold Cup, though he is also in the Racing Post Chase and the Grand National too. Harry rides, which gives us an extra jockey option if he gets to the Gold Cup.

Noland

To be honest, he has to show something here or retirement beckons. But like we saw with Neptune Collonges, horses can bounce back from very poor runs, so fingers crossed. Despite his excellent second to Pepe Simo in a Jumpers' Bumper in December, I thought he would need the run at Cheltenham, his first jumps starts since winning the 2008 John Durkan. But he clearly ran disappointingly, never jumping or travelling. But AP said give him a try over 3m, so here we are, and the smaller field and longer trip may give more time to get into a rhythm. Let's hope he shows some of the sparkle that saw him win three Grade 1 races. I think you will see an different horse today under these conditions.

13:15

Tchico Polos

He is rated 157, so is certainly a hard horse to place now, and I probably shouldn't have run him in the Victor Chandler last time as the race came too soon. But he has had a longer break this time and certainly has claims here on his best form now that Woolcombe Folly doesn't run (we withdrew him at the overnight stage last week because of a bad scope) and this has become a very open race; indeed, he is weighted to reverse Sandown form with Cornas, and that run was probably a career-best and marked him down as a progressive horse. But he doesn't owe anybody anything after winning the race we targeted him at, the Haldon Gold Cup, earlier this season. But he can go well here if back to his best.

Take The Breeze

Has become a hard horse to place, so I thought we would take our chance here. Improved to finish third at Aintree on his final start last season, and I got him primed to run at Ascot in October - some paddock watchers thought he looked a bit big there but he had done loads of work before that run, and he is a horse who always looks big and well. He ran really well at Ascot but lost out by one-and-a-half lengths after looking to set to win on the run-in. Looked to go close again over 3m1f at Sandown earlier in the month before weakening in the closing stages. Although the step down in trip seems somewhat extreme, he has winning form over the trip and here at Newbury, and he wouldn't be totally out of it on ratings. There is plenty of pace in this race too, which helps.

14:25

Minella Stars

I have read a couple of people question the fact that owners, trainers and jockeys supported last week's abandoned Newbury card despite the fact some of the races fell below the recommended tariff levels. But I would just like to thank Newbury, and all concerned, for re-staging this fixture. And this is a new race on the card, so I am doubly thankful. Minella Stars won a couple of points last year and won nicely on his hurdling debut at Hereford last month. Has improved for that, is a horse I like, and I think he will run very, very well here.

Tricky Trickster

I also had him in the Aon, a race he won last season, but he is not yet ready for a race of that calibre, so I give him a sharpener here instead. Has had a breathing operation since running badly at Cheltenham in November and needs to wake up on the track now. If he does, he could head for the Midlands National after this.

15:00

Aiteen Thirtythree

He was rated only 120 over hurdles and after just one run over fences, he is already rated 150, so he has made massive improvement for the switch. In fact, there is a funny story about his progression. When Ruby got him after he finished second at Newbury last year, he called him "useless". Myself and Mr Barber remember it well - but I don't think Ruby was sticking to that assessment after Aiteen was a wide-margin winner on his chase debut here in November. I have already backed Aiteen at 33-1 for next year's Hennessy, as he looks the ideal type for the race. The track clearly suits him, though I wouldn't want it too soft for him. Is a cracking prospect, but I fully respect the opposition here, notably Tarablaze.

15:35

Balding Banker

Finished second on his debut at Ascot and then went one better in style over course and distance in November. Has progressed well physically for his subsequent break, but has to step up again in this company as the Newbury race probably wasn't that strong. But is a nice prospect and this will probably be his last run of the season before going over hurdles next year. Let's see what happens here first.

To find out my three best chances click here.

Don't forget to read about my Sandown and Fakenham chances.

Paul Nicholls / 18 Feb 2011