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Cheltenham Betting: Paul Nicholls on his Day Three runners

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Paul provides the insights on all of his Thursday runners at Cheltenham, including an assessment of Big Buck's chances in the World Hurdle...

Robinson Collonges - The Jewson Novices Steeple Chase

A couple of weeks ago I tipped this up as the forgotten horse of the race at 20-1, and he is now "only" 8-1 on Betfair. So apologies if you haven't already backed him. But I still think he has a better chance than those latest odds imply. Very impressive in wide margin wins at Bangor and Hereford, he threw away race-winning chances with a fall at Wincanton in November and with a stopping blunder three out at Cheltenham in December.

While we don't know what would have happened at Cheltenham, I am pretty certain he would have beaten Wishfull Thinking in the Rising Stars, and we were giving him 6lb there, too. So odds of [4.33] Wishfull Thinking and [9.0] on Robinson just look wrong to me. Clearly, Wishfull Thinking looks to have improved since and won impressively off a mark of 148 here in January, but I am very happy with my horse and not concerned by his jumping. He went well in a recent racecourse gallop and comes here in real good order.


Gwanako - The Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

I read that Timeform think Gwanako "isn't going to be of much interest in the near future" and he is one of the outsiders here, so I suppose they're not sticking their necks out too much. But I think he may just give a fair account of himself. He was a near 160-rated performer over fences, finishing around nine lengths fifth to Imperial Commander in the 2009 Ryanair, and he's able to race off 140 here. We reverted to hurdles with him after he fell over fences on his first two starts (surprising as he is normally the best of jumpers) and while he disappointed last time, he ran a fair race when fourth to Ashkazar over course and distance on New Year's Day. In good form and the ground is definitely a plus.


Breedsbreeze - The Ryanair Steeplechase

Certainly, my number two in the race but he is a class Grade 1 winning horse in his own right. Won the Feltham in 2008 but missed last season with a leg and made a smashing return to action when just touched off by Tartak over 2m4f at Newbury in December. Things haven't gone to plan in his last two starts, failing to get into contention after an early mistake when third in an Ascot 2m6f handicap and then finding the soft ground all against him at the same course last time. Let's hope he can bounce back to form on this better ground.


Poquelin - The Ryanair Steeplechase

One of my best chances of the week. Absolutely loves it around this New Course, and bids to go one better after finishing second in this race last year. He was beaten by four-and-a-half lengths fair and square by Albertas Run last year, and some punters will point to the fact that he is 3-1 and Jonjo's horse is 7-1 - rather like my Jewson comments. But this is easier to explain, I think. Whereas Albertas Run comes here after a series of disappointing runs this season - he took a crashing fall at Ascot and was tailed off and pulled up in the King George - Poquelin comes here in the form of his life. He put up a career-best effort when giving Great Endeavour lumps of weight and a beating at Cheltenham and the runner-up was running a blinder off 11st 7lb when falling two out in the Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap on Tuesday. I couldn't be happier with him.


Big Buck's and Celestial Halo - World Hurdle

Both are owned by The Stewart Family and we will start with Celestial Halo. With all due respect to Alan, I was bloody relieved to see Mille Chief well beaten in the Champion on Tuesday. I may have to answer some tricky questions from Andy as we were giving Mille Chief 4lb when beaten by a nose in the Kingwell at Wincanton last month! But this horse has clearly come right back to his best in recent weeks - don't forget he is a Triumph Hurdle winner and a Champion Hurdle runner-up - and won well in the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell last time. A lot of people think he is in here to make the running for Big Buck's but let them think that.

That said, Big Buck's is clearly the main man. Unbeaten in his 10 starts over hurdles, two of which came in this race, he is simply a star. But he is a more of a recluse than a showman in that he would beat a seller the same distance he would a Grade 1 horse; he is not one to overexert himself but if any horse gets near him they will hear the roar of his engine. This year he appears to have a fight on his hands against Grands Crus, who Timeform only rate 2lb inferior to Buck's after a very impressive course and distance win. I obviously respect him greatly but the ground would be an obvious concern for him. But if he beats us, then he beats us; he will have to be a top-class stayer to do that. though.

I also respect Mourad and Ruby says not to underestimate Fivefortthree, with Willie's stable in flying form. Actually, I suppose you could say I am in a no-lose situation going into this race; if we are beaten fair and square, perhaps Andy will let me prepare Big Buck's for the Gold Cup next season!

Paul Nicholls / 17 Mar 2011

Cheltenham Betting: Paul Nicholls on his Day Three runners

Weekend Runners RSS / / 17 March 2011 / 3

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Big Buck's wins last year's World Hurdle. Will he triumph in 2011?

Big Buck's wins last year's World Hurdle. Will he triumph in 2011?

"Big Buck's is clearly the main man. Unbeaten in his 10 starts over hurdles, two of which came in this race, he is simply a star."

Paul provides the insights on all of his Thursday runners at Cheltenham, including an assessment of Big Buck's chances in the World Hurdle...

Robinson Collonges - The Jewson Novices Steeple Chase

A couple of weeks ago I tipped this up as the forgotten horse of the race at 20-1, and he is now "only" 8-1 on Betfair. So apologies if you haven't already backed him. But I still think he has a better chance than those latest odds imply. Very impressive in wide margin wins at Bangor and Hereford, he threw away race-winning chances with a fall at Wincanton in November and with a stopping blunder three out at Cheltenham in December.

While we don't know what would have happened at Cheltenham, I am pretty certain he would have beaten Wishfull Thinking in the Rising Stars, and we were giving him 6lb there, too. So odds of [4.33] Wishfull Thinking and [9.0] on Robinson just look wrong to me. Clearly, Wishfull Thinking looks to have improved since and won impressively off a mark of 148 here in January, but I am very happy with my horse and not concerned by his jumping. He went well in a recent racecourse gallop and comes here in real good order.


Gwanako - The Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

I read that Timeform think Gwanako "isn't going to be of much interest in the near future" and he is one of the outsiders here, so I suppose they're not sticking their necks out too much. But I think he may just give a fair account of himself. He was a near 160-rated performer over fences, finishing around nine lengths fifth to Imperial Commander in the 2009 Ryanair, and he's able to race off 140 here. We reverted to hurdles with him after he fell over fences on his first two starts (surprising as he is normally the best of jumpers) and while he disappointed last time, he ran a fair race when fourth to Ashkazar over course and distance on New Year's Day. In good form and the ground is definitely a plus.


Breedsbreeze - The Ryanair Steeplechase

Certainly, my number two in the race but he is a class Grade 1 winning horse in his own right. Won the Feltham in 2008 but missed last season with a leg and made a smashing return to action when just touched off by Tartak over 2m4f at Newbury in December. Things haven't gone to plan in his last two starts, failing to get into contention after an early mistake when third in an Ascot 2m6f handicap and then finding the soft ground all against him at the same course last time. Let's hope he can bounce back to form on this better ground.


Poquelin - The Ryanair Steeplechase

One of my best chances of the week. Absolutely loves it around this New Course, and bids to go one better after finishing second in this race last year. He was beaten by four-and-a-half lengths fair and square by Albertas Run last year, and some punters will point to the fact that he is 3-1 and Jonjo's horse is 7-1 - rather like my Jewson comments. But this is easier to explain, I think. Whereas Albertas Run comes here after a series of disappointing runs this season - he took a crashing fall at Ascot and was tailed off and pulled up in the King George - Poquelin comes here in the form of his life. He put up a career-best effort when giving Great Endeavour lumps of weight and a beating at Cheltenham and the runner-up was running a blinder off 11st 7lb when falling two out in the Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap on Tuesday. I couldn't be happier with him.


Big Buck's and Celestial Halo - World Hurdle

Both are owned by The Stewart Family and we will start with Celestial Halo. With all due respect to Alan, I was bloody relieved to see Mille Chief well beaten in the Champion on Tuesday. I may have to answer some tricky questions from Andy as we were giving Mille Chief 4lb when beaten by a nose in the Kingwell at Wincanton last month! But this horse has clearly come right back to his best in recent weeks - don't forget he is a Triumph Hurdle winner and a Champion Hurdle runner-up - and won well in the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell last time. A lot of people think he is in here to make the running for Big Buck's but let them think that.

That said, Big Buck's is clearly the main man. Unbeaten in his 10 starts over hurdles, two of which came in this race, he is simply a star. But he is a more of a recluse than a showman in that he would beat a seller the same distance he would a Grade 1 horse; he is not one to overexert himself but if any horse gets near him they will hear the roar of his engine. This year he appears to have a fight on his hands against Grands Crus, who Timeform only rate 2lb inferior to Buck's after a very impressive course and distance win. I obviously respect him greatly but the ground would be an obvious concern for him. But if he beats us, then he beats us; he will have to be a top-class stayer to do that. though.

I also respect Mourad and Ruby says not to underestimate Fivefortthree, with Willie's stable in flying form. Actually, I suppose you could say I am in a no-lose situation going into this race; if we are beaten fair and square, perhaps Andy will let me prepare Big Buck's for the Gold Cup next season!

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(3)

  1. dave | 17 March 2011

    do you think big bucks can jump well enough for a gold cup ?

  2. Soup Kitchen | 17 March 2011

    Turns out Robinson Collonge WAS the forgotten horse of the race: he was so far back all the way round I almost forgot him. But not the money he was carrying...

  3. lewi 38 | 17 March 2011

    what a awesome horse big bucks his i bet they dont know what to do now next year as surelly if he went jumping fences he would be hard to beat if his jumping holds for the gold cup or he could win the world hurdle 4 times if he stays hurdling which i dont think has been done before good dilema to have though lol personally id keep him hurdling as when he went jumping before he made quite a few mistakes but i suppose now hes older if he dont go chasing soon he might never win the gold cup .anyway i give respect to paul over this horse has he has done miracles with it the hose is 1 of the best ive seen for a while as he would have won further bar idleing infront .