Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 18 March 2011 / 1

Big Buck's landed the second major prize of the 2011 Cheltenham Festival on Thursday but today is the big one - can Kauto Star, Denman, Neptune Collonges or What A Friend land the big one for Paul? And what of the other prizes on Gold Cup day at Cheltenham? Read on...

Triumph Hurdle
I find it hard to split my three and all go into the race with leading chances.

Brampour: Was a decent middle distance performer on the Flat in France. Took a while to get the hang of hurdling when he first came to us but has always pleased me, so much so that I had £250 each way on him at 33-1 for this race earlier in the season. In truth, he disappointed me when only showing a fair level of form third to Kazzene at Kempton on his hurdling debut but improved a good deal when winning at Taunton last time, having last flight casualties First In The Queue (winner since) and Trop Fort (highly regarded) beaten when they came to grief. Has a really progressive profile and has been flying at home.

Sam Winner: This is a horse we have always loved since he came to us having already shown smart placed hurdles form in France. Was working like a class horse before his debut for us at Cheltenham in November and duly bolted in, beating today's favourite Grandouet 15 lengths - and that looks the one best piece of form in this race. But I suppose if Brampour has a progressive profile, then Sam's is regressive. He wasn't as impressive in winning here in December (though I think I undercooked him there) and I kicked myself for running him in such deep ground when only fourth at Cheltenham last time. Is giving us all the right signals at home again, and is the one to beat in this race if we have got him back to his November best.

Zarkandar: half-brother to the mighty Zarkava, he had winning form over middle distances in France. But when he first came to us he was a bit of a handful, but we had him gelded and that made him more tractable. Was working well prior going to Kempton for the Adonis but we went there more in hope than expectation, and he surprised me when beating Molotof by 2 ¼ lengths, with Wednesday's Fred Winter runner-up Kumbeshwar 15 lengths away in third. So the form is solid, and the time of that race was very impressive. Winning this race after just the one run is some task, but I would expect him to have improved from Kempton and he certainly has done nothing but please me since. Completes a very strong-looking hand for us.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Join Together: Timeform say that "he probably doesn't have it in him to mix it in a Cheltenham Festival novice hurdle" but we will see today; we haven't done too bad in that department this week, with Al Ferof and Rock On Ruby's agonising defeat on Wednesday. And this is a horse I really like. This point winner was still learning and gaining experience when placed at Exeter and Cheltenham (behind good horses) and then improved when winning by 21 lengths at Chepstow last time, form that is working out well. Progressive, I rate his chances here, and I think he will give the likes of Bob's Worth a race. Join Together compares favourably with Rock On Ruby at home.

Gold Cup
I run four in this race and the fact there is rainfall forecast for this morning could be very important to their chances. Indeed, Simon Claisse reckons we could have soft ground for the Gold Cup if significant rains materialise.

Denman: Rain would certainly be a great help to Denman's chances. He is a horse the public have really taken to because he is a trier, a fighter and a bruiser; the Marvin Hagler to Kauto Star's Sugar Ray Leonard. Has had his problems since his finest hour - a 7 length defeat of Kauto in this race in 2008 - but has continued to turn in some devastatingly good performances since, notably when winning the 2009 Hennessy. And you would have thought he had won that race for the third time this season to judge from the reception he got coming in after finishing third to Diamond Harry at Newbury. Although he was eventually beaten over 15 lengths there, he was giving lumps of weight away to the youngsters Diamond Harry and Burton Port, and only weakened from 2 out. Ratings-wise, that wasn't far off his best but we got the impression he didn't finish his race off as we would have liked, so he had a breathing operation. Whether or not that ekes out some improvement we won't know until the race - if Imperial Commander is in the same form as when beating him 7 lengths last season, it may need to - but he comes into this race at his best physically,

Kauto Star: If significant rain does come that wouldn't be in Kauto Star's favour but I can tell you he looks in magnificent order and was bucking and squealing the stables down earlier this wee. It was obviously ridiculously premature for people to call for his retirement after his King George run; the facts of the matter are that he would have been a decent second to Long Run had he not made the stopping mistake, and Riverside Theatre went on to win the Betfair Ascot Chase. And after Kempton he bled slightly and had a minor infection, so there were excuses for what was a below par performance anyway, So we will see where he stand today but don't forget he has won this race twice, beat the Champion Chaser Sizing Europe on his reappearance at Down Royal and only four runs ago won the King George by a distance. Not retirement material in my eyes. But I just want to see him do himself justice and, re-united with Ruby, I hope he does just that.

Neptune Collonges: Missed last season with a bit of leg and this season certainly didn't start ideally, being brought down in the Hennessy and then never getting competitive or into a racing rhythm when starting slowly at Cheltenham next time. But got the lead in the Argento Chase last time and never looked back, beating Tidal Bay 1 ¼ lengths. That form puts him in the mix here and don't forget that this is a horse who is a multiple Grade 1 winner who has finished third and fourth in Gold Cups. He is probably not the [44.0] chance I see he is on Betfair but clearly this is a very tough ask. The more rain the better.

What A Friend: Is a horse we had really high hopes for this season after a 2009-10 campaign that saw him finish second in the Hennessy and go on to record Grade 1 wins in the Lexus and at Aintree. But he has disappointed me in his two runs this season, firstly when finding the tacky ground against him in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November and then when beaten a head by Noland in the Aon, looking very awkward. I am convinced the talent is in him to run a big race here, so let's hope the bigger field, hopefully better ground, and blinkers see him show it. But the jury is obviously very much out on him at the moment. But, remember I won the 1999 Gold Cup with See More Business, who was wearing blinkers for the first time.

Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup
Just Amazing: Showed very smart novice chase form when winning by 19 lengths here last April and we got him qualified for this race with wins at Sandown and Taunton within five days last month. We only just got away with it at Taunton, but he was idling there and I wouldn't read too much into that. Has won on all types of going, though the formbook suggests he prefers good ground. Has it to do to beat the likes of Baby Run and On The Fringe, but I have to say that he looks absolutely outstanding at the moment. Bids to emulate Earthmover, who won this race for the same connections in 2004.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
Indian Daudaie: Owned by the Timeform Betfair Racing Club and Clive Smith, so the pressure is on! Showed a very smart level of hurdling form when in France and delighted me when third to Local Hero and Third Intention, giving them weight, at Cheltenham first time up. We then had a decision to make over where to go next; Haydock or Leopardstown. In the back of mind I favoured Haydock, where you are sure to get the soft ground I think he needs, but we went to Leopardstown for a valuable Grade 1 and ended up staying in Ireland for an extra week after the race was delayed. As it turns out he ran well to finish fifth there, especially as I think the ground was much faster than the official description of heavy, but I think the trip to Ireland may just have taken the edge off him. I'm not sure what to make of the horse's mark and he would certainly prefer the expected rains to arrive, but the longer trip will certainly suit him. James Cowley takes off a very valuable 8lb.

King Of The Night: Was a very smart bumper horse (only beaten a nose by Sprinter Sacre when giving that rival 13lb) and made an impressive hurdling debut here in November. Failed to fire when we stepped him up in class behind Cue Card next time but that wasn't his true form and he got back on track with a comprehensive success over 2m4f at Doncaster last time. Is certainly not chucked in off 138 and he wouldn't want too much rain, but is relatively unexposed and he has definite chances with Ian taking off 3lb.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
Pepe Simo: I rely on Pepe Simo, having withdrawn top weight Tchico Polos and Rivaliste at the overnight stage, and I have had this race in mind for a while now. Didn't make the best of chasing debuts when pulled up at Fontwell in September but jumped much better when winning at Sandown and then beat Noland in a jumpers' bumper. Saw too much daylight when an otherwise good second to Nadiya De La Vega at Kempton and the small field and softer ground were against when at Sandown last time, but even so that was clearly disappointing and his jumping was none too fluent. But a fast run race in a bigger field will suit and he has chances off what I would call just a fair mark.

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1. lewi 38 | 18 March 2011

   great race the gold cup was think both your horses run really well hope they retire kauton now as i think hes had enough only his class kepped him going think u must regret not running sam winner over further this week as he stayed on from a mile back anyway good cheltenham am gutted baby run fell as it cost me a reall good week but not to be down overall this week is enough as some of the racing was so good

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