Weekend Runners / Paul Nicholls / 15 March 2011 / 1

Paul Nicholls will be giving his views on his runners exclusively to Betfair at 08:00 on every morning of Cheltenham 2011. Be the first to read the master trainer's thoughts here.

Al Ferof - The Supreme 13:30

Could well be the forgotten horse of the race. Obviously, this is a very competitive and high class renewal though; I said recently that if I could train any horse from another yard it would be Cue Card (he beat Al Ferof by eight lengths in the bumper last season) and any horse that can give 12lb and a 21 length beating to Cedre Bleu, as Spirit Son did at Exeter, has to be feared. But Al Ferof has really pleased me, we have brought him on steadily and he did his best bit of work for a long time on Saturday. I thought: "Wow, you are right!"

I think we all feared the worst when he took a crashing fall on his hurdling debut at Cheltenham in December and we rode him to get his confidence back when third to Backspin and Court In Motion at Newbury next time. Has since recorded bloodless victories at odds of 1-7 and 1-4 at Taunton and Newbury, but could just surprise a few people here.

Of the remainder, I'm not surprised that Barry Geraghty has chosen Spirit Son over Sprinter Sacre; I trained Polisky to finish second to Sprinter Sacre and I think Spirit Son's form is far stronger. But I would expect Al Ferof to do to Cedre Bleu and Polisky what Nicky's horses did.

Ghizao - The Arkle 14:05

Disappointed at the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last season, but I wouldn't read too much into that as he was struggling with his breathing. Had an operation in the summer, and needed his reappearance run quite badly as he was one of the horses that occasionally need their first run after the op. But he has shown his true worth with impressive wins over Captain Chris at Cheltenham (I had one of my rare bets on him at 8/1 at Cheltenham, as I couldn't believe the price) and Newbury, on the latter occasion, giving him 10lb and a four-and-a-half length beating. The hallmark of those two wins was his superb jumping, and he has Medermit to beat in my mind. I think this race lies between the pair - but last year's Gold Cup showed us no race is ever a two horse race! - and we are a fair price at the [5.0] mark and bigger on Betfair.

Gullible Gordon - Cross Country 16:00

Is the sort of horse who could come alive over these fences, and he is certainly not the worst 20/1 chance you will see at The Festival. May not have progressed as well as we would have liked after his Chepstow win in 2009 but he bounced back to that sort of form when we reverted to forcing tactics at Wincanton in October. Was in the process of running a fair race when falling at Bechers last time. The good ground will suit him ideally, and hopefully he will give Harry a good ride round. He is fresh and very well.

Definity - Centenary Handicap 17:15

Was a smart hurdler a couple of seasons ago, but has chaser written all over him (not surprising given that he is out of an Irish National winner), and I think he is very well handicapped off a mark of 136 here. He was actually rated 13lb higher over hurdles, and he will surely become a better chaser - it is a rarity for one of mine to be rated lower over fences! - and I hope he proves it today.

He was slightly disappointing when a beaten favourite over 3m at Exeter last time, but he didn't stay in the testing ground. He earlier impressed me when winning at Fontwell, though. His jumping was slightly novicey in the ground at Exeter but he is normally an excellent jumper, so let's hope that was a one-off as he fenced brilliantly at Fontwell. He has plenty in his favour here, and we haven't seen the best of him over fences yet; is one of my best chances in the handicaps at the Festival.

American Trilogy - Centenary Handicap 17:15

I didn't really want to run him at Kempton last time - the right handed track and the soft ground were not ideal - but I had to get a third chase run into him there to make him eligible for this. And if he came here straight after his earlier win at that course, he would be among the market leaders as going left handed on this better ground will suit him.

He looks very fairly handicapped over fences; he won the County Hurdle by 11 lengths off a mark of 135 in 2009 and was rated 152 at his highest over hurdles, yet can race off a mark of just 134 here. That said, he clearly faces a tough task and I just wonder whether that race at Kempton has left its mark, as you have to be 100 per cent to win any race at the Festival.

Place Paul's three best chances as a Multiple by clicking here.

My three best Day One chances:

Al Ferof (Supreme) E/W
Ghizao (Arkle) E/W
Definity (Centenary Handicap) E/W

Betfair are offering cashbacks on Tote and Multiples betting. Click here to find out more.

Watch Kauto, Big Bucks, Master Minded and Denman being put through their final paces at Ditcheat on Monday.

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1. stephen thomas | 15 March 2011

   so nice to see mr john hales get a nice cheltenham memory, well done ruby and all who got al ferof here in that shape if cheltenham could have got off to a better start id like to know how

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