Ayr Betting: Paul Nicholls on his runners

It's a high-class trio that crosses the border for Saturday's racing in Scotland - read Paul's thoughts on the three here

14:50, 2m Handicap Hurdle
Sanctuaire: Beat a certain Grands Crus by 4 lengths at Taunton last season and then ran away with the Fred Winter at the Festival by 9 lengths before disappointing at Aintree. We had hopes that he would develop into a Champion Hurdle horse this season but clearly everything hasn't gone to plan, falling at Cheltenham and then pulling far too hard and refusing to settle in defeats at Exeter and Taunton. He has only dropped 2lb in the weights after those performances, so races off a mark of 144 here having won at Cheltenham off 127 - so I would say he is well and truly up against it here on the evidence of his runs this season.
But he clearly is a horse of no little potential if we can get him right and let's hope the breathing operation he has had since his last run (he had the op on January 26) has helped and he certainly comes here fresh.
Ideally, I would have wanted two more weeks with him though; he had 21 days in his box after the op, then seven days on a walker, before we eased him back into full work. But he is in good form and Rebel Rebellion surprised me when he won at Kempton in January after a similar preparation, so you never know. He is in good form and, if he comes back to his best, then he has a fair chance.


15:25, 4m Handicap Chase
Neptune Collonges: Is a [34.0] chance on Betfair for this race and that tells you all you need to know; namely, that he is up against it off top weight. Missed last term with a bit of leg and this season certainly didn't start ideally, being brought down in the Hennessy and then never getting competitive or into a racing rhythm when starting slowly at Cheltenham next time. But he got the lead in the Argento Chase and never looked back, beating Tidal Bay 1 ¼ lengths. We took our chance in the Gold Cup on the back of that win, and he actually didn't run too badly on the ground when a 26 length 8th there. Clearly faces a very difficult task but this marathon trip could suit him if AP can get him bowling along and enjoying it, as he did in the Argento.

The Minack: I have had this race in mind for him ever since he disappointed slightly at Ascot in February, though to be fair he lost all winning chance with a blunder there and did well to finish as close as he did. Is a bit like Big Buck's in that he only does enough, no matter what the company, and he tends to pull himself up in front. So I wasn't too surprised when he wasn't overly impressive in winning at odds of 1-4 in a three runner race at Warwick after winning at Wincanton on his chase debut. He has a lovely racing weight and bypassed Cheltenham to be spot on for this; and, being out of an Irish National winner, he could relish this trip. I think he will go well.

Paul Nicholls / 16 Apr 2011