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Paul Nicholls: Prospect follows in footsteps of mystery horse

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January has always been a quiet month for the stable but some runs demand further investigation, as Supreme Novice hope Prospect Wells has just shown...

We have saddled 14 consecutive losers since Hold Fast won at Sandown on January 7, but am I worried with the overall form of the yard?

The answer is an emphatic no.

I have made no secret of the fact that January is often a very quiet month for me, both on the runner and winner front, because that is my modus operandi. As Jenny Barons used to say to me, work them hard up until the New Year, back off for a few weeks, then steadily stoke the work into them and start all over again.

And part of backing off the horses and giving them a mid-season breather is administering flu jabs over the Christmas period. That is a common factor to all the horses.

But is there another connected, underlying concern to the arguably below-par form of the horses?

It is clearly not always possible to be definitive and pinpoint problems - you only have to look at the difference between Kauto Star this season and last - but I like to think that I can give you a specific reason for each disappointing run, or at least offer a plausible reason why.

Mind you, some of my owners may disagree there!

However, and in all seriousness, it must be said that Prospect Wells really had me scratching my head after his lifeless performance in the Tolworth at Sandown. I was at a total loss.

It would have been all too easy to have simply written it off as trainer error for running the horse too soon after Ascot and as an afterthought - after all, we only put him in the Tolworth after the race re-opened at the five day stage - but the way he ran suggested there was far, far more to it than that.

So we looked into it.

When you haven't specifically geared a horse towards a big race, a disappointing run is always a danger. But it must be stressed that he did more than enough in his work on the Thursday before the race to take his chance. But the run was too bad to be true and Ruby said to me that the horse sounded thicker in his wind than he normally does.

There is always the temptation to write off performances like this as simply a bad day at the office and move on - we all have them, after all - but you don't leave any stone unturned with horses as good as Prospect Wells. And I wouldn't be doing my job if I did.

So we got Geoff Lane in to take a look at him, and scope him, and thank god we did.

Because he discovered that the horse had an entrapped epiglottis and that 100 per cent explains the Sandown run. You are now going to ask me what an entrapped epiglottis means. To keep it simple, it is like a car running on two cylinders instead of four.

So he is being operated on this Saturday. The reason we are leaving it until this weekend is because Geoff has organised for a specialist in this field to come and operate on him. The operation doesn't involve a general anaesthetic.

I do know that one high-profile horse had the same problem last season, was operated on in in the first week of February, and then won at Cheltenham. So hopefully we still have a Festival horse on our hands.

Prospect Wells has options in both the Supreme and County Hurdle, and we have won the County with novices in the past, such as American Trilogy in 2009 and Desert Quest in 2006.

Plans and ratings change, but at this stage I would be leaning towards the Supreme. But, honestly, I am not sure, so bear that in mind when you are betting.

Paul Nicholls / 17 Jan 2012

Paul Nicholls: Prospect follows in footsteps of mystery horse

The Team RSS / / 17 January 2012 / 2

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Prospect Wells pictured winning at Newbury late last year

Prospect Wells pictured winning at Newbury late last year

"I do know that one high-profile horse had the same problem (as Prospect Wells) last season, was operated on in in the first week of February, and then won at Cheltenham. So hopefully we still have a Festival horse on our hands."

January has always been a quiet month for the stable but some runs demand further investigation, as Supreme Novice hope Prospect Wells has just shown...

We have saddled 14 consecutive losers since Hold Fast won at Sandown on January 7, but am I worried with the overall form of the yard?

The answer is an emphatic no.

I have made no secret of the fact that January is often a very quiet month for me, both on the runner and winner front, because that is my modus operandi. As Jenny Barons used to say to me, work them hard up until the New Year, back off for a few weeks, then steadily stoke the work into them and start all over again.

And part of backing off the horses and giving them a mid-season breather is administering flu jabs over the Christmas period. That is a common factor to all the horses.

But is there another connected, underlying concern to the arguably below-par form of the horses?

It is clearly not always possible to be definitive and pinpoint problems - you only have to look at the difference between Kauto Star this season and last - but I like to think that I can give you a specific reason for each disappointing run, or at least offer a plausible reason why.

Mind you, some of my owners may disagree there!

However, and in all seriousness, it must be said that Prospect Wells really had me scratching my head after his lifeless performance in the Tolworth at Sandown. I was at a total loss.

It would have been all too easy to have simply written it off as trainer error for running the horse too soon after Ascot and as an afterthought - after all, we only put him in the Tolworth after the race re-opened at the five day stage - but the way he ran suggested there was far, far more to it than that.

So we looked into it.

When you haven't specifically geared a horse towards a big race, a disappointing run is always a danger. But it must be stressed that he did more than enough in his work on the Thursday before the race to take his chance. But the run was too bad to be true and Ruby said to me that the horse sounded thicker in his wind than he normally does.

There is always the temptation to write off performances like this as simply a bad day at the office and move on - we all have them, after all - but you don't leave any stone unturned with horses as good as Prospect Wells. And I wouldn't be doing my job if I did.

So we got Geoff Lane in to take a look at him, and scope him, and thank god we did.

Because he discovered that the horse had an entrapped epiglottis and that 100 per cent explains the Sandown run. You are now going to ask me what an entrapped epiglottis means. To keep it simple, it is like a car running on two cylinders instead of four.

So he is being operated on this Saturday. The reason we are leaving it until this weekend is because Geoff has organised for a specialist in this field to come and operate on him. The operation doesn't involve a general anaesthetic.

I do know that one high-profile horse had the same problem last season, was operated on in in the first week of February, and then won at Cheltenham. So hopefully we still have a Festival horse on our hands.

Prospect Wells has options in both the Supreme and County Hurdle, and we have won the County with novices in the past, such as American Trilogy in 2009 and Desert Quest in 2006.

Plans and ratings change, but at this stage I would be leaning towards the Supreme. But, honestly, I am not sure, so bear that in mind when you are betting.

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  1. Dan | 17 January 2012

    Great stuff from Paul to keep the punters informed.

    The mystery horse is clearly Big Buck's. Al Ferof and Zarkandar were PFN's only other Festival winners in 2011, and Al Ferof ran on 12th Feb (not enough time to recover) and Zarkandar has since had a wind op after having breathing issues last spring.

  2. Andy | 18 January 2012

    Dan, from Paul Nicholls comments I assumed the horse he was speaking of was trained elsewhere...